February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[BTRWx]

ahh, wth

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/index_pcp_m_loop.html

was just a matter of time, but wow is that a massive system on the CRAS

[Subtropics]

CRAS is on board with the NAM.

[Ian]

In 24 hours it will be snowing heavily

[bigjohndc]

Someone posted this link the other night, but the tracks seem to align nicely. Just need the Euro.

http://meteocentre.com/tracking/track.php?area=na&mod=compar&run=00&map=pres&range=short〈=fr

[WxMan1]

It was noted from folks at EMC early in the warm (convective) season last year that the GFS was still having some gridscale feedback issues with convective "bullseyes" in the QPF with (because of the this) a cool/wet surface bias. Again this was during the warm season, but if the model was struggling with convection then, it may be having some issues now.

 

Still, we all know too well how deepening/expanding convection to the s-se can disrupt what would otherwise be a nice, well defined WAA/isentropic upglide thump.  Let's hope that doesn't happen, because if we don't get our 4-8+ on the front end...then it could get ugly in here real fast..

[yoda]

In 24 21 hours it will be snowing heavily

 

FYP

 

But yeah.... only 24 more hours to go before the wall of snow comes in

[Deck Pic]

GEFS mean supports the OP, though a bit wetter (like that is hard)- ~0.8" for DCA

[Deck Pic]

JMA is about 1.6"

[vinylfreak89]

GEFS mean supports the OP, though a bit wetter (like that is hard)- ~0.8" for DCA

seems fairly in line with other modeling... though isn't the GEFS usefulness pretty nil at this range due to crappy spectral res

[Ian]

Hourly NAM has 2.4" liquid bullseye just west of DC. Widespread near 2". (post from the future)

[Deck Pic]

seems fairly in line with other modeling... though isn't the GEFS usefulness pretty nil at this range due to crappy spectral res

 

yep

[Deck Pic]

04z RAP looks pretty good

[yoda]

Hourly NAM has 2.4" liquid bullseye just west of DC. Widespread near 2". (post from the future)

 

What NAM is this?  The HI-RES one?

 

EDIT:  Oh, I see, n/m

[mitchnick]

04z RAP looks pretty good

d@mn, made me look!

[vinylfreak89]

d@mn, made me look!

 

lol RAP goes to 18 hours... but admitedly i looked too

[yoda]

04z RAP looks pretty good

 

It does look good as it comes into S VA as I looked as well

[mitchnick]

we're never going to make those forecast single digits tonight with those clouds streaming in so fast

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html

[NoVaWx]

RPM looks excellent.

[Bob Chill]

My main focus is through 12z thurs. Gfs sucked verbatim qpf but it's on an island. All systems go from the mid to upper levels. One of the better tracks tbh. I'm pretty sure we get a solid hit by sunrise. There isn't a compelling argument against it.

I expect the euro to hit hard before problems arise

[snowNAO]

RPM looks excellent.

Link?

[mitchnick]

Link?

it's on the ncep site

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php#

[yoda]

it's on the ncep site

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php#

 

I dont see a RPM on there Mitch

[wxmeddler]

Both Hi-Res HRW and NMM mesoscale 00z runs are crushers to the 95 corridor. Similar to 4km NAM. Precip likely overdone but the structure is fantastic.

[wxmeddler]

RAP ≠ RPM

[nj2va]

Both Hi-Res HRW and NMM mesoscale 00z runs are crushers to the 95 corridor. Similar to 4km NAM. Precip likely overdone but the structure is fantastic.

 

They are beautiful.  1.75"+ and 850s below 0 throughout.

[yoda]

Both Hi-Res HRW and NMM mesoscale 00z runs are crushers to the 95 corridor. Similar to 4km NAM. Precip likely overdone but the structure is fantastic.

 

NMM: ~1.75 QPF  (maybe slightly more?) for DCA through 48

 

ARW: ~1.75 QPF  (slightly more?) for DCA through 48... 2"+ is just east of the I-95 corridor... parallels it like 20 miles east from BWI to DCA

[Ian]

Both Hi-Res HRW and NMM mesoscale 00z runs are crushers to the 95 corridor. Similar to 4km NAM. Precip likely overdone but the structure is fantastic.

 

I'm feeling more like I did this time last night than this time midday.  Since I stayed up till 1230 I might as well watch the Euro... but I won't.  Hopefully somebody gets the face ready though. 

[BTRWx]

Both Hi-Res HRW and NMM mesoscale 00z runs are crushers to the 95 corridor. Similar to 4km NAM. Precip likely overdone but the structure is fantastic.

How reliable are these models?

[Bob Chill]

I'm pretty sure I wasn't at 16* midnight the night before the march dream smasher last year

[ravensrule]

I dont see a RPM on there Mitch

It is 8-10" from you up through BWI.