February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[vinylfreak89]

the convective feedback is usually the stuff out of weenie handbook, but it may have some merit here.   That track is actually pretty good here (not sure it's in some "consensus" as mentioned earlier...it's nothing like the Euro/CMC).

 

Yes thank you. I rarely pull the convective feedback out of my pocket, because its so overused. People see heavy precip elongated, or h5 vort in front and scream convective feedback... no thats a true moisture robbing situation. This is a classic case study of what real convective feedback looks like on the model.

[Scraff]

JB2 talking about the 1-3 clipper now on Friday too.  He's been money all year.  We shall see..

[EasternUSWX]

Well folks!  Lets head over to our new correspondent, the UKIE.  UKIE, what do you have for us at 36 and 48 hrs at the 850 level on your 00z run tonight?

 

850s00zUKIE36hrs2-12-14run.gif

 

 

00zUKIE850's48hrs2-12-14run.gif

 

Looks pretty much like 12Z?

[stormtracker]

UKMET looks good...like it holds?

[vinylfreak89]

Just because convective precipitation is triggered in the model does not automatically mean the QPF is crap and to throw it out.  You have to dig a little deeper, look at heating rates, impact on mass field, etc.  I've only taken a cursory glance but I don't see anything too egregious.  It is plausible that strong, deep convection in the eastern quadrant of the storm can rob some of the fetch and mess with things.

 

agree 100 % that strong convection can rob moisture from a system. What I have a problem with is not how the QPF field is screwed with, but the emergence of strong convection in the first place. None of the dynamics support it.

 

Here is 30 hours h5, for when that panel I posted is valid starting QPF time, where do you see any lifting mechanism to support strong convection off the coast like that? UL support is way down in GA

 

[yoda]

Why UKIE... those are impressive 850s!  Can we see your QPF maps?  (Remember these are 6 hr precip maps, so the 36 is hrs 30-36 and 48 is hrs 42-48)

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Looks pretty much like 12Z?

little better I believe  

[EasternUSWX]

little better I believe  

 

Yodas post shows otherwise. Drier. 

[wxmeddler]

UKMET evloution VERY much like the GFS, H5 crosses DELMARVA about 50-75 mi W of the GFS.

[vinylfreak89]

Why UKIE... those are impressive 850s!  Can we see your QPF maps?  (Remember these are 6 hr precip maps, so the 36 is hrs 30-36 and 48 is hrs 42-48)

 

00zUKIEQPF36hrsmapFeb122014.gif

 

 

00zUKIEQPF48hrsmapFeb122014.gif

 

ouch. well... consistency is a good thing i guess

[yoda]

Yodas post shows otherwise. Drier. 

 

Those are 6 hr precip maps, not 12

[tcutter]

JB2's Map

Kind of odd map. A 4+ next to a 8+?

Sorry but who is JB2?

[Ian]

Gfs is going to score a victory because snow hates us

The GFS has implied a bigger bit than the sfc shows for days. I guess it really sucks or is the best ever.

[StudentOfClimatology]

UKMET looks good...like it holds?

Drier but way west of the GFS and colder.

Anyway, the Euro better deliver tonight. I've invested too much into this thing..

[BTRWx]

JB2's Map

 

Kind of odd map. A 4+ next to a 8+?

what about the 8-10 next to 8-10? lol

[wxmeddler]

Here is 30 hours h5, for when that panel I posted is valid starting QPF time, where do you see any lifting mechanism to support strong convection off the coast like that? UL support is way down in GA

 

Sea Surface temps, Elevated CAPE?

[stormtracker]

Gfs is going to score a victory because snow hates us

It might and nobody can discount it entirely...but it's really on it's own with NO models support for that dry western flank like that.

[vinylfreak89]

i fail to see how a dynamic system produces QPF like UKIE/GFS are showing... can't see off the coast for the UKIE nor do I know enough about its physics to fascillitate the convective feedback argument

[yoda]

Sorry but who is JB2?

 

Justin Berk

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Justin-Berk-Meteorologist/54875673475

[vinylfreak89]

Those are 6 hr precip maps, not 12

 

ah ok thank you. That makes me much less worried. Performing as I expected with the CCB... and likely wrong

[mitchnick]

Ukie slp at 42 hrs

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h42&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

48 hrs

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

ouch. well... consistency is a good thing i guess

 

Why "ouch"?  It is consistent with a good solution for us based on those, as it had in its 12Z run.  As Yoda said, the precip amounts are 6-hourly (not 12).

[Ian]

It might and nobody can discount it entirely...but it's really on it's own with NO models support for that dry western flank like that.

The mid lvl stuff is all very good. Like most models give or take some.

[vinylfreak89]

Drier but way west of the GFS and colder.

Anyway, the Euro better deliver tonight. I've invested too much into this thing..

 

its not drier. Those are 6 hour panels... I was thrown as well

[Deck Pic]

I don't think we need a reason to throw out the GFS QPF....It is an outlier...that is reason enough...I don't think anyone who has followed the model evolution of this storm can say much positive about the GFS or put any faith in it at all....I am looking forward to the upgrades...

[wdcrob]

what about the 8-10 next to 8-10? lol

 

One is all snow -- one is snow, maybe sleet/rain, snow.  The colors differentiate.

[vinylfreak89]

Why "ouch"?  It is consistent with a good solution for us based on those, as it had in its 12Z run.  As Yoda said, the precip amounts are 6-hourly (not 12).

 

yea ignore... I thought he said they were 12 hour panels... I totally misread that

[yoda]

Guys, Plymouth doesn't show the QPF at 42... as I said in my post... the 36 hr panel is how much QPF falls between hrs 30 and 36 (aka 06z and 12z, or 1 to 7am).  The 48 hr panel is how much QPF (prob snow) falls between 18z and 00z aka 1pm and 7pm.  You will have to wait for meteocentre when it comes out in an hour to get the precip from 00z to 06z (30 hr panel) and 12z to 18z (42 hr panel)  Plymouth does NOT have those panels

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Drier but way west of the GFS and colder.

Anyway, the Euro better deliver tonight. I've invested too much into this thing..

Ukie is *not* drier...though correct that it's west and colder than the GFS.  Very similar from what I can tell to its 12Z.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Yoda, UKIE better, worse or the same? Model interruption chaos for the UKIE.