February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[nj2va]

I'm sorry if I've completely missed the joke, but how the heck does WxBell calculate their snow maps?  It's like they completely ignore the rain/snow line.  Look at the totals they produced from this NAM run on the shore and in southern Maryland!

 

This is just my opinion but I think they like that their snow maps are overdone - the maps bounce around social media and drives up interest in the site.

 

Just checked the 850s on the Hires NAM - DC stays below 0 throughout.  I hope NAM scores the coup with precip amounts/type.

[mitchnick]

I'm always willing to throw DT a bone, especially since he does such a great job of interpreting (bashing) NWP.

for your own good     

[NCWX]

I am liking my forecast now....   http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.542929337593435&lon=-78.4961986541748#.UvrmZ2RDuCZ

[Deck Pic]

This is just my opinion but I think they like that their snow maps are overdone - the maps bounce around social media and drives up interest in the site.

 

Just checked the 850s on the Hires NAM - DC stays below 0 throughout.  I hope NAM scores the coup with precip amounts/type.

 

yes they were pimping them out on FB 

[TL97]

Per the NY thread the RGEM is east of its 18Z run...

[stormtracker]

RGEM, 24 hours...looks better?

 

[stormtracker]

Per the NY thread the RGEM is east of its 18Z run...

whew, thought it was just me...haven't seen the 36 hour panel yet

[yoda]

Per the NY thread the RGEM is east of its 18Z run...

 

Its a weird looking run... it redevelops the low down south after nearing ORF... then slowly moves it up the east coast and has a weak what I think is a CCB... i am not buying it

 

36 996 by ORF

39 997 appears south of Cape Hatteras (in what looks like a transfer south)

42 993 right near Cape Hatteras

45 989 NE of ORF by ~70 miles

48 985 just east of Ocean City MD

[stormtracker]

RGEM moved east

 

[Ji]

Tomorrow night will be similar to feb 4-5 2010 night

[TerpWeather]

Per the NY thread the RGEM is east of its 18Z run...

Anything east of Annapolis is better than it's 18z "I'm going to Baltimore" run

[North Balti Zen]

Just landed . Holy crap is it cold. So different from march 2013 bust. If we get the slug of initial heavy precip, we will accumulate a ton before any changeover Thursday AM. Nice to have a recent cold air mass ahead of a storm, even if the high is retreating.

[wxEGG]

I have been watching this for days to see what may come about in Midlothian, VA, and have to admit, being a novice, the model runs make me as anxious as watching speed skating while laying in bed.    Just can't go to sleep....ha!  At this point just have to await the next run(s) to see what we may end up with in Midlo.  Thanks to all for posts.  It's been once again very educational and exciting.

[Subtropics]

Can someone post NAM wxbell map please? Need it !!

[Bob Chill]

We have fresh super legit arctic air......I am so not worried about a march 6th scenario

Not worried about temps for the first 6-8 hours. March was a temp nightmare on so many levels (literally). I just don't want some weird lift/energy robbing scenario from what appears to be an unpredictable h5 evolution. Unjustified paranoia I'm sure. Just don't want to see h5 close off in some fashion that messes with our front side. Can't see how it can happen here. But radar loops of the mar storm will make a grown weenie cry.

[snowfan]

At 36, RGEM looks good.

[winterymix]

RGEM looks good, classic SLP placement.

There has got to be some mixing with the

32 degree isotherm near the Chesapeake Bay.

 

These various models seem to be converging.

[usedtobe]

agreed...I posted about it before...it was in the low 50s the day before...when the precip started we were 41/34.....and it was march!....Was just talking with Orhwxman and he thinks low level warmth may be overdone...that sleet/ice might be more common than rain with this storm if we flip from snow

I was just thinking that too.  Even with the high receding I think surface temps will be really hard to budge given that we have a low developing off the coast.  Earlier this year we had freezing rain that lasted much longer than forecast with a receding high so I think Will is probalby right.

[Ian]

I think what a lot forget though about before 3/13 were the tortured analyses of the boundary layer. 3/13 was not a slam dunk by any stretch, and the relentless posting of skew-T's over 2 days for winter storm confirmed that. Almost everyone went glass half full because the 0Z runs got better, but the Euro was still not the bomb the other models showed.

It was a completely marginal situation that everyone went optimistic for.... Not a good comparison to this storm.

 

I'm not comparing it to this storm other than there was a front end thump everyone was excited about (one which didn't happen).  I'm not new here.. obviously don't need the responses that "wow what a dumb comparison."

[yoda]

Its a weird looking run... it redevelops the low down south after nearing ORF... then slowly moves it up the east coast and has a weak what I think is a CCB... i am not buying it

 

36 996 by ORF

39 997 appears south of Cape Hatteras (in what looks like a transfer south)

42 993 right near Cape Hatteras

45 989 NE of ORF by ~70 miles

48 985 just east of Ocean City MD

 

You can see it here -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=048

 

The precip field looks odd as well

[cgillesp]

yes they were pimping them out on FB 

Yeah, that 40" map last weekend was hilarious. Probably doubled their pageviews.

[vinylfreak89]

did the radio show not happen? I don't see it on the blogtalk radio site?

[stormtracker]

did the radio show not happen? I don't see it on the blogtalk radio site?

There was not one scheduled for tonight.

[vinylfreak89]

Not worried about temps for the first 6-8 hours. March was a temp nightmare on so many levels (literally). I just don't want some weird lift/energy robbing scenario from what appears to be an unpredictable h5 evolution. Unjustified paranoia I'm sure. Just don't want to see h5 close off in some fashion that messes with our front side. Can't see how it can happen here. But radar loops of the mar storm will make a grown weenie cry.

 

not possible... WAA driven... its a precip surge north. only h5 evolution that will mess with things is back side

[Deck Pic]

RGEM about 1.1"?

[vinylfreak89]

There was not one scheduled for tonight.

 

oh... when i was at work I thought I saw the headline. I guess that was referring to last nights show and must've been cached

[BTRWx]

I was just thinking that too.  Even with the high receding I think surface temps will be really hard to budge given that we have a low developing off the coast.  Earlier this year we had freezing rain that lasted much longer than forecast with a receding high so I think Will is probalby right.

With this and other guidance, wouldn't the latest lwx snow map be a little low?

[snowfan]

RGEM gets DC 20-25 mm of snow.

[Ian]

Tomorrow night will be similar to feb 4-5 2010 night

feb 4 was amazing.

[StudentOfClimatology]

You can see it here -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=048

The precip field looks odd as well

To me it just looks like a late, convoluted capture scenario. As a result the low just stalls and deepens off the Delmarva. That'd be quite interesting.