February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[stormtracker]

won't be as cold this run, at least not at 30 hrs

lol

[mattmfm]

won't be as cold this run, at least not at 30 hrs

lol if you live in EZF

[Fodie77]

Wow, 850s just barely held for RIC. I will hug this model until it ultimately crushes my soul.

[Bob Chill]

I'm now officially rooting for no closed ull and a nasty neutral vort.

[yoda]

Oh hai der

 

 

 

[stormtracker]

won't be as cold this run, at least not at 30 hrs

lol

[WxUSAF]

NAM is 1"+ of QPF south of a JYO-FDK line by 12z Thursday morning.  All snow. Thin layer near freezing S/E of DC at 900-925 by 11z. 

[PDIII]

It seems cold and wet... hmmm... 

[Joshfsu123]

0 line is well to the SE of DC on this run --- looks like Southern Maryland at 36 hours. Great run by NAM - it holds for now.

[BTRWx]

NAM is 1"+ of QPF south of a JYO-FDK line by 12z Thursday morning.  All snow. Thin layer near freezing S/E of DC at 900-925 by 11z. 

big question is what might be behind that, if anything

[needbiggerboat]

Thru 7am. Red is 11" and yellow is 12"

[stormtracker]

I'm now officially rooting for no closed ull and a nasty neutral vort.

honestly, what do we do here?....can't use the "NAM beyond 48 hours" thing anymore.   I mean, temp profile will always be suspect but man...

[mitchnick]

lol

well I was right....it's just that it's still cold enough and warmer b/c it's wetter

hey, let me be paranoid in my corner, will ya'?

[Ian]

NAM is my new best friend

 

[MN Transplant]

Profile gets iffy at 12z, but then cools back down by 15z for whatever is left.

[MidlothianWX]

Wow, 850s just barely held for RIC. I will hug this model until it ultimately crushes my soul.

Wayyyyyyy too close for comfort for us. This is the epitome of a nowcast event. Anything from 2-10" on the table.

[BTRWx]

The back end fizzles, but who cares at this point, overall good run

[Quasievil]

NAM is my new best friend

 

USA_ASNOWI1_sfc_031.gif

My God. (Speechless) If we can verify half of that it's a win.

[mitchnick]

honestly, what do we do here?....can't use the "NAM beyond 48 hours" thing anymore.   I mean, temp profile will always be suspect but man...

ummm Randy....we're well within 48 hrs soooo...

[ravensrule]

Pulled this from the NY thread, good to know the new data is in the NAM run

 

[mattmfm]

Profile gets iffy at 12z, but then cools back down by 15z for whatever is left.

 

Even at 12z DC would be -2 or so at 850 and 30-31 at surface, unless the NCEP maps are wonky. Hardly something to panic about, unless there's a unseen warm layer somewhere in there.

[mitchnick]

temps at 925 mb are right around 0C imby....too close, but they do get better after 15z as Minn mentioned

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L

[snowNAO]

Give the NAM till 12z tomorrow, still not in its best range. I think it might go more towards the RGEM/EURO/UKMET. 

[SLPressure]

honestly, what do we do here?....can't use the "NAM beyond 48 hours" thing anymore.   I mean, temp profile will always be suspect but man...

Yeah. So what about "It's the NAM. Toss it".

When do we trust it and when do we toss it? I know some would just look at it for giggles and some would say it has it's good points. What about now? Toss, hug, or how to disseminate it's data?

[stormtracker]

ummm Randy....we're well within 48 hrs soooo...

Yes Mitch, thus my saying "We can't use the NAM is beyond 48 hour thing" anymore.

[BTRWx]

NAM is my new best friend

 

USA_ASNOWI1_sfc_031.gif

The total snow-depths support the current lwx map well, except the upper bounds to the west

[PhineasC]

Give the NAM till 12z tomorrow, still not in its best range. I think it might go more towards the RGEM/EURO/UKMET. 

Hopefully the NAM 9 hours from start will be at least a little useful.

[Deck Pic]

15-16" IMBY...not too bad

[paxpatriot]

Mets on some f the other forums were talking about convective feedback issues with the NAM. Folks here seeing the same thing?

[Bob Chill]

Nam is pretty good @ h5 inside of 48. This is a complicated evolution but I wouldn't toss just 'cause. Gfs is close to this as well. Never closes off and goes nuts. Good f'n run for the next hou.