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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Huffwx

Huffwx

Posted
Posted

my expectation is the foreign models like the Euro will not bust 36 hours before a storm. lets see what Euro says today before we crown the NAM a great run

 

I just want to enjoy it. I'd love the 1.8 qpf the Euro gave me, but I'm not going to scoff if I only get 1.1 as the Nam shows

 

If we always get 18+, is that really a HECS anymore?

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
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I just want to enjoy it. I'd love the 1.8 qpf the Euro gave me, but I'm not going to scoff if I only get 1.1 as the Nam shows

 

If we always get 18+, is that really a HECS anymore?

 

Great post. I guess everyone has a different definition of a great storm. I am on the western fringe and the NAM is a great storm. HECS are HECS for a reason. Once a decade type storms IMO.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
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Maybe matt or Wes or somebody can bring up a similar track/strength coastal and having the deform/heaviest axis se of DC. I personally can't remember any. Nam is a big hit regardless. Great run.

 

2/16/96 is an example of a storm (6-10") with a similar track and deform southeast of DC.....This NAM run is probably a bit too tight with its gradient so would be a little wetter out west...but with its track, deform would probably be over or southeast of DC....fortunately the Euro has a different track and it is a vastly superior model....

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dtk

dtk

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that's really the two paths -- the NAM/GFS which flirt with an earlier phase (remaining progressive, although the 12z nam is a better vort pass/tilt than previous runs) and never get a closed ull -- and the Euro/GGEM/UKMET -- something may change with the 12z globals but I'm confident it will have little to do with "better sampling"

x1000.

 

The one thing that really bothers me about the whole sampling argument is people completely ignore lead time/error growth for a specific event.  Of course a model is going to hone in on a solution when there is less lead time....there is a shorter time window for small perturbations (initial condition errors) to grow and for model error to exacerbate the problems.  Error growth is not even close to linear.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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NAM has been the quickest of the models with the speed of the storm I think, pretty consistently showing a 15 hour storm, with the other models showing it a slightly longer event. Not sure why. 

The pattern as a whole is rather progressive, with no major downstream blocking to slow the storm, a 15 hour storm seems right.  WPC alluded to that in the model diagnostic discussion.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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2/16/96 is an example of a storm (6-10") with a similar track and deform southeast of DC.....This NAM run is probably a bit too tight with its gradient so would be a little wetter out west...but with its track, deform would probably be over or southeast of DC....fortunately the Euro has a different track and it is a vastly superior model....

 

Ah, I wasn't in MD for that one. Euro upped the total precip on the means last night. Looks like 1.5 for most everyone from what I'm seeing. Key difference is closing off h5. Guidance is mixed but favoring the euro is clearly the way to go for now. 12z will be interesting.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Anyone have some extra time on their hands and want to list a quick summary of when each model begins onset of precip into DC/Balt metro areas?

 

I'm trying to keep up with posts but its hard at work today...  and my zulu conversion based off the running each model's initialization just hurts my head.

 

Pretty tight envelope there. 8-11pm tomorrow night for most of us. Further south starts first of course. NAM sped up from previous. It will be a snowglobe by midnight. 

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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Ah, I wasn't in MD for that one. Euro upped the total precip on the means last night. Looks like 1.5 for most everyone from what I'm seeing. Key difference is closing off h5. Guidance is mixed but favoring the euro is clearly the way to go for now. 12z will be interesting.

with the dynamics and banding on the NAM, there would probably be 12-15" amounts even somewhere west of town where they got deathbanded.....Feb 2006 had a better track than the NAM, but I remember the models kept showing a precip axis east of town...over and over....and everyone west was worried about getting screwed...I think models may have even been in the 0.25-0.5" range for the far western burbs near the event and they got pummeled of course....in a dynamic storm like this, even without any further model shifts(which there will be), people on the NW side of the precip gradient will do better than modeled.....

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ohleary

ohleary

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Yeah.. Yet to see it happen. The models have huge amounts of great satellite data before anything hits shore. They do a pretty great job in places that have no obs.

 

Not all obs are weighted the same.  Raobs are pretty heavily weighted...dtk can confirm.

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