Huffwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 my expectation is the foreign models like the Euro will not bust 36 hours before a storm. lets see what Euro says today before we crown the NAM a great run I just want to enjoy it. I'd love the 1.8 qpf the Euro gave me, but I'm not going to scoff if I only get 1.1 as the Nam shows If we always get 18+, is that really a HECS anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 didn't the euro show a "capture" last night? is that why it shows a longer duration storm?yep. The trough going negative adds like 6 hr or so. The euro is probably still too amped etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Everything looks great but 50 miles closer to the coast would be ideal. For you maybe not everyone else here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just want to enjoy it. I'd love the 1.8 qpf the Euro gave me, but I'm not going to scoff if I only get 1.1 as the Nam shows If we always get 18+, is that really a HECS anymore? you try going 4 years without a snowstorm huff:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just want to enjoy it. I'd love the 1.8 qpf the Euro gave me, but I'm not going to scoff if I only get 1.1 as the Nam shows If we always get 18+, is that really a HECS anymore? Absolutely not even a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hi-res NAM has the cities in the 1.2-1.4 range at 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just want to enjoy it. I'd love the 1.8 qpf the Euro gave me, but I'm not going to scoff if I only get 1.1 as the Nam shows If we always get 18+, is that really a HECS anymore? Great post. I guess everyone has a different definition of a great storm. I am on the western fringe and the NAM is a great storm. HECS are HECS for a reason. Once a decade type storms IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe matt or Wes or somebody can bring up a similar track/strength coastal and having the deform/heaviest axis se of DC. I personally can't remember any. Nam is a big hit regardless. Great run. 2/16/96 is an example of a storm (6-10") with a similar track and deform southeast of DC.....This NAM run is probably a bit too tight with its gradient so would be a little wetter out west...but with its track, deform would probably be over or southeast of DC....fortunately the Euro has a different track and it is a vastly superior model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agree. I mean, that it's not EUROlicious. It's 12-14 here as is. Euro and CMC is a STRETCH. I'm assuming the NAM doesn't have the NW data because it runs off the 6z data that's not true. It uses 6z boundary conditions, but it has all of the 12z observational data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 that's really the two paths -- the NAM/GFS which flirt with an earlier phase (remaining progressive, although the 12z nam is a better vort pass/tilt than previous runs) and never get a closed ull -- and the Euro/GGEM/UKMET -- something may change with the 12z globals but I'm confident it will have little to do with "better sampling" x1000. The one thing that really bothers me about the whole sampling argument is people completely ignore lead time/error growth for a specific event. Of course a model is going to hone in on a solution when there is less lead time....there is a shorter time window for small perturbations (initial condition errors) to grow and for model error to exacerbate the problems. Error growth is not even close to linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM has been the quickest of the models with the speed of the storm I think, pretty consistently showing a 15 hour storm, with the other models showing it a slightly longer event. Not sure why. The pattern as a whole is rather progressive, with no major downstream blocking to slow the storm, a 15 hour storm seems right. WPC alluded to that in the model diagnostic discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 2/16/96 is an example of a storm (6-10") with a similar track and deform southeast of DC.....This NAM run is probably a bit too tight with its gradient so would be a little wetter out west...but with its track, deform would probably be over or southeast of DC....fortunately the Euro has a different track and it is a vastly superior model.... Ah, I wasn't in MD for that one. Euro upped the total precip on the means last night. Looks like 1.5 for most everyone from what I'm seeing. Key difference is closing off h5. Guidance is mixed but favoring the euro is clearly the way to go for now. 12z will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM precip. I'm sure high res will show more. namprecip12z.JPG And it might shift a little more to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just add Will to tonight's radio show and it will be like the weather all star game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 that's not true. It uses 6z boundary conditions, but it has all of the 12z observational data. My mistake. Can I default to it's the NAM past 24 hours?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA last night had a closed ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hate the lull between models when the storm is in this range. Pretty soon you'll have the RAP to follow This looks like it's going to be a great storm for most if not all of us. 6+ seems like a really good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the ULL closes off we'll get the extra 0.5-0.7qpf in 6 hours... there is the difference between the NAM and the Euro/Ukie/Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have some extra time on their hands and want to list a quick summary of when each model begins onset of precip into DC/Balt metro areas? I'm trying to keep up with posts but its hard at work today... and my zulu conversion based off the running each model's initialization just hurts my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have some extra time on their hands and want to list a quick summary of when each model begins onset of precip into DC/Balt metro areas? I'm trying to keep up with posts but its hard at work today... and my zulu conversion based off the running each model's initialization just hurts my head. Pretty tight envelope there. 8-11pm tomorrow night for most of us. Further south starts first of course. NAM sped up from previous. It will be a snowglobe by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ah, I wasn't in MD for that one. Euro upped the total precip on the means last night. Looks like 1.5 for most everyone from what I'm seeing. Key difference is closing off h5. Guidance is mixed but favoring the euro is clearly the way to go for now. 12z will be interesting. with the dynamics and banding on the NAM, there would probably be 12-15" amounts even somewhere west of town where they got deathbanded.....Feb 2006 had a better track than the NAM, but I remember the models kept showing a precip axis east of town...over and over....and everyone west was worried about getting screwed...I think models may have even been in the 0.25-0.5" range for the far western burbs near the event and they got pummeled of course....in a dynamic storm like this, even without any further model shifts(which there will be), people on the NW side of the precip gradient will do better than modeled..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12Z NAM HiRes QPF... Also, don't know how accurate this is, but it sees no mixing west of the bay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So hi-res NAM at 1.6 and Euro at 2.1 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How much for Philly? bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 bump95% chance of a HECS no matter the storm.. Or season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably because that's a myth. 18z and 00z cycles have more data due to ACARS...at least per GDAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like about 1.4 for BWI. Works for me even with 8:1 ratios Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah.. Yet to see it happen. The models have huge amounts of great satellite data before anything hits shore. They do a pretty great job in places that have no obs. Not all obs are weighted the same. Raobs are pretty heavily weighted...dtk can confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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