February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[Disc]

yoda, on 11 Feb 2014 - 8:14 PM, said:

I know this is in RNK's CWA... but read the accums wording... 1st time its been in thereVAZ011-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-121100-/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0004.140212T1800Z-140213T2300Z/GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE734 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO6 PM EST THURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA  NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE  BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS POSSIBLY  PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED  THUNDER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 

Wow, thanks for posting this Yoda. I haven't seen that yet.

[mattmfm]

This ain't New England my friend.

 

I haven't had much time to look, but can you think of a situation we've sat under backside CCB with a change to rain? If we miss dryslot, concern would be teeter at 32-34 with lackluster accumulation rates, but even that concern would seem minimized if we're sitting with 6" on the ground. Unless we straddle 20 miles of the dryslot, in which case we have a classic case of sleet/drizzle. 

[mitchnick]

Get the fork ready, we're about to be done. When I saw the inch line way west I kinda thought the 850s would follow.

last hope is that the SREF's don't have the 0Z data

[North Balti Zen]

I liked that sref move, I think as much qpf as possible is our best bet to make the changeover less painful and keep us in the game for snow on backside.

[Bob Chill]

Once you're at peace with the changeover, then you want to root for a super wet solution. Even the 18z RGEM was an intense pre-mix dump.

I think most of us have been at peace and totally expect a changeover. The dream runs didn't sway me much in that dept.

I hope sleet vs rain. Dryslot is fine. So is a visit with a deform band even if it can't accumulate.

When the wall of precip is approaching on radar this time tomorrow night it will be a party in here regardless

[mitchnick]

I haven't had much time to look, but can you think of a situation we've sat under backside CCB with a change to rain? If we miss dryslot, concern would be teeter at 32-34 with lackluster accumulation rates, but even that concern would seem minimized if we're sitting with 6" on the ground. Unless we straddle 20 miles of the dryslot, in which case we have a classic case of sleet/drizzle. 

give me the dry slot vs. rain/sleet melting the fresh snow and keep my fingers crossed for some back side action

[WVclimo]

it seems so. but there's a long way to go still and things could change. me too. it's intriguing because the totals so far are just for Wednesday night...

The text forecast from 6:30 for Berkeley Co. said snow would mainly be in the morning on Thursday. The new point and click dropped that wording, and just calls for snow, heavy at times for Thursday.

[Ji]

This ain't New England my friend.

It's not even the carolinas

[snowfan]

Well, NAM is rolling. Let's do this.

[Deck Pic]

DCA precip totals through 7am thurs. Most recent run of each model.

Rgem 1.3

Ggem 1.2

Nam .75

Euro .70

Gfs .52

I didn't check when the Canadians flip but I know those totals are not all snow

 

I think makes sense now to go with euro/nam QPF and 80% snow by 12z....so 6-7"

[Ian]

I haven't had much time to look, but can you think of a situation we've sat under backside CCB with a change to rain? If we miss dryslot, concern would be teeter at 32-34 with lackluster accumulation rates, but even that concern would seem minimized if we're sitting with 6" on the ground. Unless we straddle 20 miles of the dryslot, in which case we have a classic case of sleet/drizzle.

I'm on my phone so hard to look at a lot. Doesn't really look like SREF is showing anything the other models aren't for the thump part at least. I never get too worked up about what it shows since it tends to bust horribly around here. I figured the expansion west was because it's warmer.. Still haven't looked much tho. Looks like .5"+ by 12z at least. Backend can perform it's just a tricky proposition here quite often.

[Ian]

It's not even the carolinas

Hatteras got almost as much snow today as I've seen in the last three winters.

[mattmfm]

I'm on my phone so hard to look at a lot. Doesn't really look like SREF is showing anything the other models aren't for the thump part at least. I never get too worked up about what it shows since it tends to bust horribly around here. I figured the expansion west was because it's warmer.. Still haven't looked much tho. Looks like .5"+ by 12z at least. Backend can perform it's just a tricky proposition here quite often.

 

Bit warmer at 850 (SREF brings DC to ~0-1C) but otherwise pretty much a rip of the 18z NAM--dryslot stays east of DC and CCB goes to town I-95 west. Probably looking at ~1.25" precip. 

[TL97]

The new SREF isn't that bad... DC changes over at hour 43 about. At this point almost 1" of QPF had fallen. 

[ohleary]

last hope is that the SREF's don't have the 0Z data

 

You will be happy...I believe the SREF uses the GFS for boundary conditions...it doesn't have its own assimilation system.

[PhineasC]

00Z will bring folks back a bit, I think.

[PhineasC]

The new SREF isn't that bad... DC changes over at hour 43 about. At this point almost 1" of QPF had fallen. 

How often do we get 1 - 1.5 inches of QPF and not have some mix in DCA and SE of I-95?

[PhineasC]

Hatteras got almost as much snow today as I've seen in the last three winters.

DCA is literally the worst spot for snow north of SC, it seems.

[yoda]

I am not sure why everyone is hating the 21z SREFs... looks good for most of us till ~9/10am... about 10 hrs of snow... 6-8" likely if the QPF maps were correct before we play the mix/dryslot/where's the CCB deformation band game

[Bob Chill]

I think makes sense now to go with euro/nam QPF and 80% snow by 12z....so 6-7"

Yea, pretty much where my head is at. Should be a fun night. All the bubble bursters in here today will be online tomorrow night all giddy talking about rakage. I'm in.

[mitchnick]

You will be happy...I believe the SREF uses the GFS for boundary conditions...it doesn't have its own assimilation system.

ok

well, I figured since they were the 21Z SREF's, they couldn't have the 0Z data

[Bob Chill]

Let's try and keep it on topic while the suite rolls. Important stuff coming out.

[BTRWx]

What?

about the same as 18Z through 12

[mitchnick]

at 15 hrs, there seems to be more backside energy coming down it and a hair west too

if it closes, this will be warm

[stormtracker]

Let's try and keep it on topic while the suite rolls. Important stuff coming out.

[BTRWx]

at 15 hrs, there seems to be more backside energy coming down it and a hair west too

if it closes, this will be warm

Slightly more amped at hr 22 with placement looking quite similar

[yoda]

Snow starts around 8pm in DC

[mitchnick]

touch colder 850s at 21 hrs vs. 27 hrs on 18z fwiw

[Deck Pic]

quicker

[BTRWx]

Snow starts around 8pm in DC

Maybe 1-2 hours earlier than 18Z? Faster with the arrival, but also ever so slightly north and wider precip swath again at hr 25