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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

Sorry, I looked back a page or two and didn't see anything, I guess I just didn't look back far enough.  Just got home from work and doctor.

 

I did see mention of the 24 hour guideline, but by 7PM I thought we were inside of that.  Anyway, my real point was that whenever the storm comes it'll hit us before Philly, so they must not be using the same 24 hour guideline.  

 

I can accept that the offices just run differently.  Just didn't know if there was anything more to it than that.

LWX (and everyone else) also has had two pretty big busts within a year (3/6/13 and 12/10/13) after which I'm sure they got plenty of public "feedback." They have reason to be more cautious than Mt. Holly, where snow this season has over-performed in their forecast area for numerous storms. 

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted

Sorry, I looked back a page or two and didn't see anything, I guess I just didn't look back far enough. Just got home from work and doctor.

I did see mention of the 24 hour guideline, but by 7PM I thought we were inside of that. Anyway, my real point was that whenever the storm comes it'll hit us before Philly, so they must not be using the same 24 hour guideline.

I can accept that the offices just run differently. Just didn't know if there was anything more to it than that.

This is from LWX's Facebook feed, about an hour ago: "Still uncertainty in exact track and p-type, hence no warning just yet."

Seems they want to see some better consensus in the data before pulling the trigger.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

LWX (and everyone else) also has had two pretty big busts within a year (3/6/13 and 12/10/13) after which I'm sure they got plenty of public "feedback." They have reason to be more cautious than Mt. Holly, where snow this season has over-performed in their forecast area for numerous storms.

I get the sense LWX is too close to HQ etc. They have good mets but are among the worst offices when it comes to decisionmaking. I don't necessarily fault them for waiting but now that we are surrounded by warnings you'd think at the least they could hoist them in their high probability areas. They say low confidence but that's not what their numbers suggest when it comes to a warning at the least.
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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

I get the sense LWX is too close to HQ etc. They have good mets but are among the worst offices when it comes to decisionmaking. I don't necessarily fault them for waiting but now that we are surrounded by warnings you'd think at the least they could hoist them in their high probability areas. They say low confidence but that's not what their numbers suggest when it comes to a warning at the least.

I'd guess they'd come with the next update. Would be kind of funny if they hoisted them after the NAM and before the GFS or any other parts of the 0z suite. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

This should help some people. Euro last night had us in tears of joy. It was a perfect progression @ h5. Great phase - close - track. We basically had the bowling ball over us with a neutral look. Here's 18z thurs panel from last night:

 

 

attachicon.gifeuro0zthurs18z.JPG

 

 

 

And then here's the same period from today's run:

 

 

attachicon.gifeuro12zthurs18z.JPG

 

 

 

They don't even really look all that different but a little means a lot here. Euro could go back to a version of last night or it could hold serve. And even then it's just a model. Dynamic upper level storms will always confuse, frustrate, and annoy everyone. Even if the euro goes hog wild again tonight it won't mean it can't punch us in the face tomorrow. 

 

I think punch in the face is relative. The 12Z Euro is still a pretty massive hit. It's not what 0z last night was for sure. But its massive.

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted

DT is such a hack.  His first call was 16" last night for, say, FDK, IAD, and a line south all the way to CHO, and 10-14 for DC.  Now he's beating down anyone who suggests anything over 4-8" for model-hugging.  And that's a good question - why doesn't his final call have any actual snowfall predictions in it...?

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weathercoins

weathercoins

Posted
Posted

I get the sense LWX is too close to HQ etc. They have good mets but are among the worst offices when it comes to decisionmaking. I don't necessarily fault them for waiting but now that we are surrounded by warnings you'd think at the least they could hoist them in their high probability areas. They say low confidence but that's not what their numbers suggest when it comes to a warning at the least.

Agreed -- we don't need a 5 inch areawide prediction, just a 5 inch reasonable possibility. 4 to 6 inches with some sleet is enough for a warning. And the chance that models tonight don't give the area even that are pretty tiny right now.

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weathercoins

weathercoins

Posted
Posted

DT is such a hack.  His first call was 16" last night for, say, FDK, IAD, and a line south all the way to CHO, and 10-14 for DC.  Now he's beating down anyone who suggests anything over 4-8" for model-hugging.  And that's a good question - why doesn't his final call have any actual snowfall predictions in it...?

Agreed about him being a hack, but here is his "last call map" https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/t1/1904020_646452478735347_825565561_n.jpg

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

This is from LWX's Facebook feed, about an hour ago: "Still uncertainty in exact track and p-type, hence no warning just yet."

Seems they want to see some better consensus in the data before pulling the trigger.

Most of the time we get the warnings before the southern PA counties. Not sure any of their questions will be answered after 00z suite. There may never be a consensus with this event. So many possibilities for just about all of us.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

DT is such a hack.  His first call was 16" last night for, say, FDK, IAD, and a line south all the way to CHO, and 10-14 for DC.  Now he's beating down anyone who suggests anything over 4-8" for model-hugging.  And that's a good question - why doesn't his final call have any actual snowfall predictions in it...?

 

He just posted his map. Its a foot in DC. Surprised.

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The Dude

The Dude

Posted
Posted

I get the sense LWX is too close to HQ etc. They have good mets but are among the worst offices when it comes to decisionmaking. I don't necessarily fault them for waiting but now that we are surrounded by warnings you'd think at the least they could hoist them in their high probability areas. They say low confidence but that's not what their numbers suggest when it comes to a warning at the least.

 

I suspect they don't want to hoist warnings for some counties, but not others, because they are concerned that doing so might be mis-interpreted by some to suggest that they don't think a warning is warranted for the non-warned area.  Given the lead time, there's not much gained in issuing the warning for the high-prob areas right now.  As long as they have them up by early morning, they will provide adequate warning.

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Solo2

Solo2

Posted
Posted

my point and click has been updated to heavy snow and accumulations of 3-7".

my zone is heavy snow and 4-8".

I sense the warnings will be raised soon.

Same.  Take it gladly.

 

 

 

  • Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. North wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
  • Thursday Night A chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 




I know this is in RNK's CWA... but read the accums wording... 1st time its been in there



VAZ011-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-121100-



/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0004.140212T1800Z-140213T2300Z/



GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-



BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-



SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-



INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...



CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...



FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...



LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...



UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE



734 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO



6 PM EST THURSDAY...



* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA



  NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.



* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.



* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.



* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.



* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.



* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE



  BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY



  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS POSSIBLY



  PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED



  THUNDER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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