February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Started out this

 

I really think once the metro area folk get the 12"+ amounts out of our heads, we're kind of around where we were yesterday morning in terms of expectations.....

 

Yep, the one thing going for us this time that we didn't have in march of last year or december of this year was a cold air mass and front-end dump.  We had to try and wait for the column to cool when the precip started.  All these solutions that mix or change us over still get us 3+ in DC metro which is still a good event imo.  Just not the widespread 10+ the EURO was advertising as I woke up this AM.

[yoda]

Actually you can probably fully discount the NAM.

And the UKIE? GGEM? GGEM ensembles? 4km NAM?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

So let me make sure I have this right... earlier GFS runs were on the eastern end of the model envelope. Now its moved to the western side, and we are all saying its right? Come on now

I'm not even so sure I'd say it's really on the western side of the envelope.  The Euro certainly is (can say the RGEM too).  GFS is similar in track to the NAM, well enough offshore.  And it's similar to its 12Z track from what I can see. 

[RickinBaltimore]

Governor O'Malley just declared a state of emergency in Maryland for the upcoming snow.

[cpasi]

So let me make sure I have this right... earlier GFS runs were on the eastern end of the model envelope. Now its moved to the western side, and we are all saying its right? Come on now

FROM : Bastardi...."Unlikely lessening of snow between 2 max amounts.. not showing up in other modeling.. GFS still has to correct. Tomorrow will be on"

 

Im thinking he expects a slight East track..thoughts?

[StudentOfClimatology]

So let me make sure I have this right... earlier GFS runs were on the eastern end of the model envelope. Now its moved to the western side, and we are all saying its right? Come on now

I don't think the track is west of the envelope, it's east of the GGEM, EURO, UKMET, and RGEM. Rather I think the discombobulated look is related to the model's handling of the dynamics upstairs.

That said, I'm not a met yet, so I could be wrong.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Actually you can probably fully discount the NAM. 

 

Yeah it really hasn't done well with any of our marginal events, just a constant source of false weenie hope.

[mappy]

GFS still dumps 5-6" on areas west of 95, so what's the issue?

[DCAlexandria]

And when the nam shows a foot all snow again? Toss it?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Warnings hoisted for the counties south of Fredericksburg, text says 8-12.

[ravensrule]

GFS still dumps 5-6" on areas west of 95, so what's the issue?

Yeah Tom T on channel 11 just said 4-9" for DC Baltimore and 6-12" for you. He also said he is sure the totals will have to be adjusted.

[gymengineer]

I've never seen Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for Cape Hatteras but not even advisories for VA Beach and the Norfolk area for a storm that's coming up the coast... 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS still dumps 5-6" on areas west of 95, so what's the issue?

the fact that DC gets .7-.8 inches of precip but with a rain/snow mix?

[Sparky]

Yeah Tom T on channel 11 just said 4-9" for DC Baltimore and 6-12" for you. He also said he is sure the totals will have to be adjusted.

And by adjusted he sort of meant downward I think because he was concerned about the projected warming all the way back through Howard and really parts of Caroll County for a period near the end.

[needbiggerboat]

Exactly Yoda. Will be great to see reactions if 0z nam holds

Still wont be in "good" range for nam

[BHweather]

NBC4/Doug Kamerrer's call...

[BHweather]

they're calling it the biggest storm in 4 years (maybe will end up being biggest since January 2014?)

[cpasi]

Is this enough to close the Govt, thats my wonder ..?

[ravensrule]

And by adjusted he sort of meant downward I think because he was concerned about the projected warming all the way back through Howard and really parts of Caroll County for a period near the end.

Yes sounded like that to me as well. Although his RPM model did not show us flipping until 11 a.m.

[Ian]

Im calling for T+. Pretty confident for now.

[weathercoins]

From NWS State College: "STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK

OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.
HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS
CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE
WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD
EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY
ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE (EVENING AND
MIDNIGHT) SHIFTS.

[ohleary]

And when the nam shows a foot all snow again? Toss it?

 

Yes, and the next cycle and the next.  Then if it verifies, forget it and begin bashing it all over again.  Because you know, the NAM is never right.*

 

* whatever that means

[yoda]

Yes, and the next cycle and the next.  Then if it verifies, forget it and begin bashing it all over again.  Because you know, the NAM is never right.*

 

* whatever that means

 

No idea either

[eurojosh]

From NWS State College: "STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK

OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS

SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.

HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS

CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE

WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD

EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY

ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE (EVENING AND

MIDNIGHT) SHIFTS.

That's bad for us.

[vinylfreak89]

The GFS is blowing up some sick W. Atlantic convection which works in-tandem with the dry-conveyor belt. This could be a reason it is limiting QPF in your area, but I am guessing.

 

The euro had this too and is honestly my biggest concern. Do you think it has some merit or do you think the models are overdoing the W Atl convection

[weathercoins]

I went from thinking we were a lock for OPM to close Thursday and likely for Friday to thinking we'll be lucky for a delayed opening on Thursday.

 

With 5"+, a turnover, then potentially more in the afternoon? OPM would close...

[weathergeek]

Weather Channel now showing 1-2 inches of wintery mix for Arlington

[stormtracker]

Yes, and the next cycle and the next.  Then if it verifies, forget it and begin bashing it all over again.  Because you know, the NAM is never right.*

 

* whatever that means

I actually don't hate the NAM as much as most here.  The 0z run is prime time for it IMO.  If it holds, it's a definite factor IMO

[weathercoins]

Weather Channel now showing 1-2 inches of wintery mix for Arlington

 

What was it showing before?

 

Actually, don't answer that, it's The Weather Channel local forecast accumulation totals, would rather have a Magic 8 Ball tbh...

[WEATHER53]

yep...wash rinse repeat...the models show solutions that are adverse to their own advertised 500mb patterns and climo..we buy them...and Sterling busts

This has been a worry of mine since last night. Plenty cold now but cold departing by later Wednesday therefore reliant on a near perfect track and intensity or rain/sleet mix.