February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[usedtobe]

I'm still digging but the amount of deep-layer moisture, -EPV and strong mid-level frontogen are all in favor of a solid shield of 1"/hr snow and bands of 2-3"/hr during the peak of the morning bout. Someone needs to plot a cross section/use BUFKIT to determine other things like thundersnow/type of stability we are dealing with it. From what I'm inferring on the charts, there is definitely a thunder potential.

I need one of the young guys to plot it, I can read it fine but don't have the bufkit skiils to plot one myself.  This does smack me as a Thundersnow type storm.

[ohleary]

 

WPC/NHC requesting Dropsondes from Hurricane Hunters along Gulf Coast just off Texas for 0z runs.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014
         WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71--
       A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66
       C. 11/2000Z
       D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 13/0000Z

 

Yes a WSR mission is in store for 00Z.  Also supplemental soundings from a few sites...

[stormtracker]

looks like GFS dumps the elongated double low idea

[stormtracker]

Yes a WSR mission is in store for 00Z.  Also supplemental soundings from a few sites...

Hopefully, this helps 0z settle into a track.   Good to see

[Herb@MAWS]

Storm #5 -- link to enter forecasts for 27 East Coast cities:

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

(this is one offshoot which evolved from the old ne.weather newsgroup)

 

 

We're essentially 28 hours before the first flakes fly..time to make a forecast and rip with it.

 

BWI: 6.5- up until 7AM..possibly 1-3 in afternoon after mix/lull

DCA:5.1-up until 7AM possibly 1-3 after mix/lull

IAD: 7.7-up until 7AM, chance is stays mostly snow so 3-6 after total 11.7

[MN Transplant]

~0.55" at DCA by 12z.  Better.

[Deck Pic]

ok..the gfs is west for sure...not by a ton..but west

[stormtracker]

GFS closes off at 39 hours

[ravensrule]

Told ya Randy 18Z would do it. Didn't say it would be rain or snow  .

[MN Transplant]

And over to rain.  The GFS hates this storm.

[Deck Pic]

~0.55" at DCA by 12z.  Better.

 

it's gonna be wetter but warmer...I bet I flip there by 5-6am...hopefully good thump by then

[ohleary]

GFS rain at 15Z for DCA/BWI...zr for IAD

[stormtracker]

Told ya Randy 18Z would do it.

its warm

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

6-10 seems to be a good low-end mean. 

 

 

Thanks!

[MN Transplant]

it's gonna be wetter but warmer...I bet I flip there by 5-6am...hopefully good thump by then

 

Yeah, its between 5 and 6am.  900mb level gets us.

[ravensrule]

its warm

Yea i see that, now all models are on board we just have to hope for an east shift.

[EasternUSWX]

GFS still wonky with precip.

 

[mitchnick]

Yea i see that, now all models are on board we just have to hope for an east shift.

meh, once it starts west in this time frame, it's hard to believe it will stop, let alone shift east again

maybe the new soundings, etc. prove otherwise

[BTRWx]

GFS rain at 15Z for DCA/BWI...zr for IAD

and then it recovers back to snow around hr 48, but should be a juicy run

[caviman2201]

Back-end looks good around 00Z Thurs... 

[BTRWx]

GFS still wonky with precip.

 

Look at those isobars!

[Quasievil]

GFS still wonky with precip.

 

 

More importantly, those temperatures are a disaster. Where's a high when you need it?

[Solo2]

Geez, even looks to switch over out here for a period...

[Ian]

now to see start time temps become marginal and we've completed the usual dc storm cycle 

[snowfan]

Back end snow on the GFS is there. Doesn't appear to be a very long shot of rain.

[DCAlexandria]

Still got the nam and ukie

[stormtracker]

GFS precip is kinda weird on the western flank when the model is off OC

[HM]

I need one of the young guys to plot it, I can read it fine but don't have the bufkit skiils to plot one myself.  This does smack me as a Thundersnow type storm.

On a broader-scale, the upper-level jet (250-200mb) divergence from 2 different quads, differential vorticity advection and amount of moisture scream for a sick, sick arriving shield. I suspect the GFS tonight will up the QPF, should this storm go negatively tilted as outlined by today's data.

[Deck Pic]

look like 4" for me and then sleet and then rain

 

next

[Terpeast]

Cold high way off the Canadian coast, not where you want it for I-95 to stay all snow :/