February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[MN Transplant]

Cleaner image.  Tucks in under the 500.  Ton of precip ahead of it though.

 

[Scraff]

And the roller coaster continues.  I do like the last few hours of trends though. At this point, do we even care about the next GFS?  Anyone see that HYPEAccuweather used the B word for us?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

980 almost over Baltimore. Seems way to far west. 

It's pretty crazy looking, but not far from what it showed earlier.  Well, more intense I believe.  Also as someone pointed out it's somewhat similar to the Euro track up into the Bay.  I sure hope that's too far west of what really happens, but man it's wrapped up!  It almost looks like we'd get wrap-around banding after it goes past and after whatever mix, but hard to tell.

[clskinsfan]

And the roller coaster continues.  I do like the last few hours of trends though. At this point, do we even care about the next GFS?  Anyone see that HYPEAccuweather used the B word for us?

 

Yes we care. Its solution cant be dismissed. It is model mayhem right now.

[waldo5252]

How come when we get a great model run it's..LOL an and we are d can't be right?  But when we get one not great run, it is the definite outcome and all is lost.  Like I said, Nam came out and was a bomb and happiness came back.  Now a bad one will get mixed in and everyone will overract.  You guys need to keep the faith and believe in the Nam...this should be fun and you guys get down and suck the fun out of it.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Wow, the RGEM is a scorching nuclear bomb. Too much phasing early on with a faster recoiling of the high moving offshore. Kind of like the Euro.

I'm starting to think the GFS is mishandling the 500mb closure.

[EasternUSWX]

It's pretty crazy looking, but not far from what it showed earlier.  Well, more intense I believe.  Also as someone pointed out it's somewhat similar to the Euro track up into the Bay.  I sure hope that's too far west of what really happens, but man it's wrapped up!  It almost looks like we'd get wrap-around banding after it goes past and after whatever mix, but hard to tell.

 

This is one of the most difficult storms to predict in a long time. nearly 36hrs out and we are still all over the place. Though with euro/ukmet locked in step, i'd go with those. 

[H2O]

And the roller coaster continues.  I do like the last few hours of trends though. At this point, do we even care about the next GFS?  Anyone see that HYPEAccuweather used the B word for us?

Yes one should care about the GFS. It is a model run and can be used effectively

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

And the roller coaster continues.  I do like the last few hours of trends though. At this point, do we even care about the next GFS?  Anyone see that HYPEAccuweather used the B word for us?

 

Are you freakin' serious??  Unbelievable (not your reporting that, but their hyping at this point!).

[yoda]

On the meteograms for 18z RGEM, we get like 15-20mm of snow before rain

[usedtobe]

Wes...from what I can tell, the worst model (GFS) still gives us 3-4" on the front end, and every other model, 6"+....so I think we are good on the front end...lets see what the GFS says in 20

I think our CWG forecast is decent for now as we gave lots of range to the accumulations.  Somehow I doubt I get more than 6 but am hoping it still is snowing at 7AM Thu. 

[snowdude]

I do not believe such an inland track that the RGEM and some of the latest guidance indicates. You are going to get a significant storm in DC the burbs. That's just what I feel and I don't think such a wound up inland storm fits the pattern.

[WxUSAF]

RGEM track is an extreme west outlier.  I would weight that accordingly until it has any support whatsoever. 

[DCAlexandria]

Ukie and Euro are not in lockstep on track.  Ukie is nearly perfect DCA track and Euro not so much.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

This is one of the most difficult storms to predict in a long time. nearly 36hrs out and we are still all over the place. Though with euro/ukmet locked in step, i'd go with those. 

 

Definitely a tricky forecast all around.  Seems like a Euro/UKMet blend would acually be pretty good for us (Euro too far west for our liking, Ukie wound up and off the coast).

[feloniousq]

 PSUBlizzicane2007: Read the other posters first before you post...then you will see that it would be unwise to make any real prediction right now given model inconsistency. 4" would be highly likely right now...more starts to become questionable.

 

He's a met with 6,500 posts in multiple forums and this is your first post...he probably didn't need your commentary on the topic.

[MN Transplant]

I'm sad that the RGEM ends at 54.  I want to see what it would do with the GL low.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On the meteograms for 18z RGEM, we get like 15-20mm of snow before rain

Any indication of how much cold rain, and if there's a switch back to deformation band snows?

[Deck Pic]

I think our CWG forecast is decent for now as we gave lots of range to the accumulations.  Somehow I doubt I get more than 6 but am hoping it still is snowing at 7AM Thu. 

 

I should have said DC...obviously you may get a little less depending on the track and warm layer

[mitchnick]

the thing that worries me the most is that the RGEM was, I'm pretty sure, the first model to start caving to warm for the system a couple weekends ago and it's feeling like deja vu

meh, it'll be whatever it'll be, but with nobody to sue  

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

We're essentially 28 hours before the first flakes fly..time to make a forecast and rip with it.

 

BWI: 6.5- up until 7AM..possibly 1-3 in afternoon after mix/lull

DCA:5.1-up until 7AM possibly 1-3 after mix/lull

IAD: 7.7-up until 7AM, chance is stays mostly snow so 3-6 after total 11.7

[bigjohndc]

On the meteograms for 18z RGEM, we get like 15-20mm of snow before rain

Isn't that like .7 inches of snow?

[mitchnick]

I'm sad that the RGEM ends at 54.  I want to see what it would do with the GL low.

suck it up on its way back south of PHL where it stalls

[Ian]

im taking this and calling it a day 

 

[HM]

WXMAN1.....is this thundersnow sounding.  I can't tell whether it is unstable or neutral  above 600mb but think with strong frontogenesis you'd probably have CSI so it might not matter.  Other mets weigh in if you have an opinion.

 

CWG_THUNDERSNO_FEB_2014.png

I'm still digging but the amount of deep-layer moisture, -EPV and strong mid-level frontogen are all in favor of a solid shield of 1"/hr snow and bands of 2-3"/hr during the peak of the morning bout. Someone needs to plot a cross section/use BUFKIT to determine other things like thundersnow/type of stability we are dealing with it. From what I'm inferring on the charts, there is definitely a thunder potential.

[HM]

I'm still digging but the amount of deep-layer moisture, -EPV and strong mid-level frontogen are all in favor of a solid shield of 1"/hr snow and bands of 2-3"/hr during the peak of the morning bout. Someone needs to plot a cross section/use BUFKIT to determine other things like thundersnow/type of stability we are dealing with it. From what I'm inferring on the charts, there is definitely a thunder potential.

In fact, of all the storms so far this year, this is the first to show the thunder potential. All of the other ones people said thunder seemed to be based on the simulated radar images, lol.

[HM]

RGEM track is an extreme west outlier.  I would weight that accordingly until it has any support whatsoever.

Basically, we have a maturing cyclone along the Mid Atlantic coast that will occlude somewhere off the Northeast coastline. The way this thing gets captured and the way the surface-500mb tilted structure becomes vertical will never be ironed out correctly today. Low static stability/bombogenesis with a capture can send a low quickly west for a while; the rgem solution is not crazy.

[wxmeddler]

WPC/NHC requesting Dropsondes from Hurricane Hunters along Gulf Coast just off Texas for 0z runs.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014
         WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71--
       A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66
       C. 11/2000Z
       D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 13/0000Z

[Deck Pic]

GFS more organized and looks west to me

[jacindc]

Topper has gone 3-6" east of DC, 6-9" DC to about Gaithersburg, and 9-12" west of that.