yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM at 24 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3293_100.gif 1010 L just south of Big Bend of FL around the TAL area... very juicy (yes that is a 97mm) 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif 1001 down by CHS (just off shore SC coast) with a 100mm marker... snowing in DC with 6mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hmm interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't know if the 18Z hi-res NAM has been mentioned much yet, but it thumps dca with heavier rates pretty good. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wow...Canadian ensemble mean is a perfect track.....whoa.... and the OP is the best with the front thump...well over 1" by 12z thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was going to more or less say the same thing. There's nothing "magical" about issuing one now, and the precip isn't due to get here until tomorrow evening. Places to the southwest of LWX's area will be getting snow earlier, thus they've gone with a warning there now. There has been a watch up for a day now, that's clearly given people a big heads-up. Actually, I'm surprised they issued the watch yesterday afternoon, rather than waiting until this morning, but not a big deal. Exactly. I can say from my experience at WFOs that you do NOT want to box yourself (and surrounding offices) into a corner by coming out with a warning too early. What would be the advantage? The beauty about a WATCH is you as a forecaster only need to be 30-50% confident of meeting warning criteria (per the NWS Directives). So, in essence, a watch can transition to a warning, advisory, or even on occasion, NOTHING as when the models shift considerably. Also, the advantage of a watch is you can be VAGUE VAGUE VAGUE. Lot's of "possible" or "potential" terms, and you can avoid specific snowfall accums and just focus on the warning criteria ("potential for 5 or more inches of snow"). YES folks would love to have 24+ hours of lead time before an event. But...isn't that what a WATCH is for? From a verification standpoint, there is NO advantage being the "first with the worst" and coming out with winter storm warnings too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't know if the 18Z hi-res NAM has been mentioned much yet, but it thumps dca with heavier rates pretty good. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Its still snowing 7pm Thur there as well.. even close to 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM at 48 hrs precip type....YEAHHH BABYYY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't know if the 18Z hi-res NAM has been mentioned much yet, but it thumps dca with heavier rates pretty good. Amazingly, the 18z 4km NAM has equal amounts before and after 12z, totaling 1.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hate to be "that guy" right now... but does anyone have an estimated range for accumulations for DC out of this storm? My sister is traveling for work there this week, and she's concerned...and unfortunately I don't have time to figure it out otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM at 48 hrs precip type....YEAHHH BABYYY I'm seeing valid at 06z, which would make that an old run, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wow...Canadian ensemble mean is a perfect track.....whoa.... and the OP is the best with the front thump...well over 1" by 12z thursday Each piece of model output just confuses me. If the rgem and nam are right, we'll be pummelled and have lots of snow on the ground by Thursday morning regardless of any possible mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 48 RGEM is 988 right up the bay I-81 is in trouble with that position... mixing WAYYYYYYY out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm seeing valid at 06z, which would make that an old run, right? doh! they usually update those maps first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WXMAN1.....is this thundersnow sounding. I can't tell whether it is unstable or neutral above 600mb but think with strong frontogenesis you'd probably have CSI so it might not matter. Other mets weigh in if you have an opinion. CWG_THUNDERSNO_FEB_2014.png Yes indeed Wes...and look which layer that's in -- right within the max dendritic growth zone, i.e. between -10 and -20C. Not a bad lapse rate with the theta-e profile there. All we need is the lift within that layer, and (then) we can "extract" that "potential" instability. AND...this is probably why there *has* to be a probability -- at least a 10-25% -- of at least 12" even east of I-95. Convection with intense snowfall rates instead of a mix/rain/drizzle (dry slot) is a game changer obviously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 PSUBlizzicane2007: Read the other posters first before you post...then you will see that it would be unwise to make any real prediction right now given model inconsistency. 4" would be highly likely right now...more starts to become questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is pretty awesome. Recon plane is currently collecting data ScreenHunter_65 Feb. 11 16.08.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 doh! they usually update those maps first I see 06 UTC Feb (Fev) 13 - I think that's when the map is valid for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is essentially a carbon copy of the 12Z OP EURO, if anything more amped and wet. Those maps are a b*tch to read though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol...Hi res Nam is 1.75 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think it's safe to say that even the models haven't given a consensus yet. There's still some indecision as to what's to come obviously. I'd like to see if the models move to a closer agreement at 0z. That Euro model (while usually pretty reliable) does seem an outlier this time. Either that or I got on weenie glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Exactly. I can say from my experience at WFOs that you do NOT want to box yourself (and surrounding offices) into a corner by coming out with a warning too early. What would be the advantage? The beauty about a WATCH is you as a forecaster only need to be 30-50% confident of meeting warning criteria (per the NWS Directives). So, in essence, a watch can transition to a warning, advisory, or even on occasion, NOTHING as when the models shift considerably. Also, the advantage of a watch is you can be VAGUE VAGUE VAGUE. Lot's of "possible" or "potential" terms, and you can avoid specific snowfall accums and just focus on the warning criteria ("potential for 5 or more inches of snow"). YES folks would love to have 24+ hours of lead time before an event. But...isn't that what a WATCH is for? From a verification standpoint, there is NO advantage being the "first with the worst" and coming out with winter storm warnings too early. Even with all the improvements in forecast capabilities over the years, I feel like early issued Warnings defeats the purpose of its definition. Uncertainty should not be overlooked. "This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations" http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warm? Yes warm, and the one MItchnick posted was the wrong run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hate to be "that guy" right now... but does anyone have an estimated range for accumulations for DC out of this storm? My sister is traveling for work there this week, and she's concerned...and unfortunately I don't have time to figure it out otherwise. 6-10 seems to be a good low-end mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warm? Yup, even for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Each piece of model output just confuses me. If the rgem and nam are right, we'll be pummelled and have lots of snow on the ground by Thursday morning regardless of any possible mixing issues. Wes...from what I can tell, the worst model (GFS) still gives us 3-4" on the front end, and every other model, 6"+....so I think we are good on the front end...lets see what the GFS says in 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 980 almost over Baltimore. Seems way to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 48 RGEM is 988 right up the bay I-81 is in trouble with that position... mixing WAYYYYYYY out there Reminds me of an earlier NAM run. Would be a huge front end dump though. Anything is still on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just need the GFS to **** or get off the pot. If it comes in strong, closed low...good track, it would be a nice confidence booster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe mr b should not post maps with useless commentary like lol. Add some value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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