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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Newbie here, you guys are like the PROFESSOR on Gilligan's Island, so I am Gilligan. How much snow for Gaithersburg  Maryland, do you think I should see at least 12 inches or more. I already have the Snowblower gassed up and ready to go, I am not as scientific as the members here who are posting, so I will just sit back and watch.

no one knows at this time...and maybe not tomorrow at this time either

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

It's still almost a perfect track. I thought the models might start converging towards a consensus but all they have done is confuse me.  I'm glad I got to write the boom or bust article instead of having my name on a forecast. 

Yeah.. same. Though I almost never put numbers to anything these days. It is a good run.. I hope it's right.  The Euro might still be a bit too west given the rest of guidance. It wasn't all that different from last night -- it could return closer to that at least. 

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ThePhotoGuy

ThePhotoGuy

Posted
Posted

Warnings issued for east of the bay!

 

KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...CENTREVILLE...
EASTON...DENTON...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE WARNING INCLUDES SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
  EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARD TYPES...PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
  INLAND. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE CLOSER TO THE
  SHORE.

* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A SNOW AND SLEET MIX EARLY
  THURSDAY MORNING. BY MID DAY THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION IS
  EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THE
  REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL
  IMPACTS...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF THERE
  HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES BY
  THE TIME THE WINDS INCREASE.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

WOW 40% chance of 8", very ballsy.

 

Well, I'm not sure it's "that" ballsy. 

 

Consider again that even some of the warmer globals (outside of the GFS) have close to .75" through 12Z.  IF all of that is snow, you're rounding up to 8 inches.  So I think (then) that a 40% chance of 8" inches lined up essentially along I-95/the fall line is not bad...especially when you consider it's still "likely" (60% chance) that they won't get quite 8 inches.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

Yeah.. same. Though I almost never put numbers to anything these days. It is a good run.. I hope it's right.  The Euro might still be a bit too west given the rest of guidance. It wasn't all that different from last night -- it could return closer to that at least. 

Next time we have a radio show, I don't put numbers down so early.  I felt pressured because DT did but he's always willing to throw out numbers even when it's too early to know.  Oops, someone is going to tell me this belongs in the banter thread.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

It's still almost a perfect track. I thought the models might start converging towards a consensus but all they have done is confuse me.  I'm glad I got to write the boom or bust article instead of having my name on a forecast. 

 

Yeah, you almost have to Wes.  Really reminds me of 1/22/87 in that IF we didn't have the convection and (thus) higher rates, the original 4-8/5-10" forecast would have verified instead of 10-14" that ended up happening during that event.  Still, with a projected track and speed of this system, as well as the thermals, we need things to align almost perfectly for a legit shot at >8" for us east of I-95. 

 

I still like the original 5-10" call from early today...though given the 12Z runs I might be tempted to lower that to 4-8". 

 

One thing I wonder -- will the colder SSTs in the shelf waters (certainly colder than 3/6/13) and antecedent cold air and SNOW COVER in the Carolinas make enough of a difference with the SLP track.  Yes, the upper levels tend to be the driver in terms of the surface low strength and track, but as long as the mid/upper levels don't over-amplify too quickly, I'm curious to see how the low is going to track during the 12-18Z timeframe on Thursday.  I'm still not convinced it's going as far west as the 12Z operational EC would suggest.  

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

500MB at 48 hrs

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=z500&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

track is basically the same though.. it is stronger at the NC/VA coastal border by like 4mb 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Why?  They can wait till later tonight for the early 00z runs

 

I was going to more or less say the same thing.  There's nothing "magical" about issuing one now, and the precip isn't due to get here until tomorrow evening.  Places to the southwest of LWX's area will be getting snow earlier, thus they've gone with a warning there now.  There has been a watch up for a day now, that's clearly given people a big heads-up.  Actually, I'm surprised they issued the watch yesterday afternoon, rather than waiting until this morning, but not a big deal.

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DCA Weather

DCA Weather

Posted
Posted

Newbie here, you guys are like the PROFESSOR on Gilligan's Island, so I am Gilligan. How much snow for Gaithersburg  Maryland, do you think I should see at least 12 inches or more. I already have the Snowblower gassed up and ready to go, I am not as scientific as the members here who are posting, so I will just sit back and watch.

From a lurker to a newbie......quick rule of thumb is that it irritates/annoys people when you ask how much snow IMBY. Follow along with the discussion and analysis and you can usually figure it out.

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