February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[clskinsfan]

Wow. Crush job. Great run for all of us.

[Ji]

NAM looks so good but its probably so wrong

[Deck Pic]

NAM looks so good but its probably so wrong

 

of course it is...just model porn and little else

[BTRWx]

The back-building scenario looks interesting.

[JMU2004]

Damn it NAM. Looks pretty good for all.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Nam also has a nice little backend coming thru at 51

[WEATHER53]

SLP on the Outer Banks looks like at 35

Man, 15 minutes again to get to this point. The low has to go over or east of Norfolk. Mouth of Bay thru lower Easter Shore gets a lot of sleet and even rain in. This problem started showing up last night and has not gone away. Key well may be around 4pm tomorrow. If center of circulation is along central VA/NC border then I think it is too far west, if east central/eastern NC/VA border then mostly-all snow for DC.

[yoda]

Is that right?  Radar says snow is still flying around LWX CWA Thursday evening?

[chaydaw]

Did the NAM tick west/east at all?

[MN Transplant]

At least the NAM caught up with the rest and isn't showing 35 and sunny by late afternoon Thursday.

[EasternUSWX]

 

[Deck Pic]

lol..the NAM Is like 12-16" for DC

[stormtracker]

wow, wpc is pretty aggressive

[stormtracker]

lol..the NAM Is like 12-16" for DC

 

I wish the GFS would get on board man.  Ugh

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm always amazed at the speed and efficiency of the NCEP site.

[ravensrule]

WOW 40% chance of 8", very ballsy.

[Kmlwx]

lol..the NAM Is like 12-16" for DC

Crush job for sure. Now we hope that the 12z "bad" runs were a hiccup. Honestly, I'm pretty sure we are locked in for a 4+ snow event in the DC area. this is worlds better than last winter. 

[MN Transplant]

All-nighter

 

[ravensrule]

I'm always amazed at the speed and efficiency of the NCEP site.

It is brutal i cannot use it. Instant weather maps is way better and faster.

[Kmlwx]

WOW 40% chance of 8", very ballsy.

"At least", too - Very aggressive map from WPC.. 

[Deck Pic]

At least the NAM caught up with the rest and isn't showing 35 and sunny by late afternoon Thursday.

 

yep 8pm end time...23 hour event..lol

[Deck Pic]

All-nighter

 

USA_ASNOWI3_sfc_039.gif

 

i think based on any model solution, 10pm - 4am is a no brainer...I might nap after that since I could have to work on Thursday

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah, I use the instant weather maps site too, but I do like the NCEP graphics.  It's just too darn slow.

[peribonca]

well the nam isn't so crazy... it's very similar to last night's Euro. It would be very surprising to me that today's 12z Euro ends up verifying since it's an outlier by at least 100miles west in the surface low's track.

[WinterWxLuvr]

well the nam isn't so crazy... it's very similar to last night's Euro. It would be very surprising to me that today's 12z Euro ends up verifying since it's an outlier by at least 100miles west in the surface low's track.

It can do that.  Everyone praises it for Sandy, but it had a run where it took Sandy up the Ches. Bay too.

[Deck Pic]

0z Euro perhaps most important run in my history of following models

[mitchnick]

NAM never closes the 5h off, at least not on any of the 3hr maps

[Ian]

NAM never closes the 5h off, at least not on any of the 3hr maps

nope but it kicks the trough negative right as its passing. 

[wdcrob]

Those NWS snow prob maps for DC work out to...

 

30% <4"

30% 4-8"

30% 8-12"

10% 12+"

 

[Ian]

^{Feeling Better IAN?}

 

through about here yes