mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 call me paranoid, but I'm gunna wish I didn't see this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think we had 8" or so in Powhatan but for all purposes the storm was over by sunrise despite occasional snow showers all day Saturday. I may have finished close to 12", which probably beat Chester by a mile. I have been watching this from a distance all week and thinking of your PD 2 event in 2003. Again, the concerns on dry slot and warm nose can wreak havoc on the forecasts there. That seemed like an even more sure forecast at this range That didn't exactly work out as planned. I lived in Chester VA at the time (DT land) and picked up 6.5" the evening of Dec before it went over to sleet/rain/ dry slot. Not a bad inial thump, even though that's pretty much all I got through the entire event (areas N and NW of RIC fared much better, especially up here). Right; I live in Short Pump and ended up with about 9" on Friday the 18th. Picked up a few more inches the next day, but, yeh, it was over by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SLP on the Outer Banks looks like at 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think slower is probably less good given what we've seen today. But here's to a nam'ing. Would you rather have more snow or more qpf? That's basically what we are dealing with, but I think snowfall from both scenarios may turn out to be similar, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think slower is probably less good given what we've seen today. But here's to a nam'ing. The faster solutions (12z GFS/NAM) are farther east and dampened, leading to reduced rates/warmer sfc/etc..which is a big deal in terms of the front end thump scenario. I'd rather take my chances with a deeper low. I'm hoping the slower 18z NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agreed and I've been echoing this to the folks in our chat. After 12/2009 and 02/2003, you can't really take some of the raw data too seriously. Any forecast over say 6 or 7", at least officially, is very risky business especially when you consider the trend of the last couple decades with large events. Yes but AKQ posted 10-14 for areas west of RIC metro to Facebook! Hope it works out for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 And the stalemate continues. Not a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hmm, 850s are colder at 33 hrs vs. 39 on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The good news is we may have some wiggle room while the deform banding seems to stretch all the way to the Atlantic Coast at hr 36. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021118&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 hmm, 850s are colder at 33 hrs vs. 39 on 12z What were you saying earlier? paranoid I'd take the NAM at this point and hold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CTP with their new zone map, added 10-14 contour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What were you saying earlier? paranoid I'd take the NAM at this point and hold it. at least winter is over in a week so I can rest for 9 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks damn good at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What were you saying earlier? paranoid I'd take the NAM at this point and hold it. Is that an eye? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021118&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is >1" hr from 1am to 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What's all the worrying for? Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 [top]000FXUS61 KLWX 112015 CCAAFDLWXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC313 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE CENTER OF SFC HIPRES OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTN WILL BUILD EWDINTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TNGT. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THENEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY WED. THE NEAR TERM WILL FEATUREDRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLEDIGITS IN NRN MD NEAR THE PA BORDER AND IN THE POTOMACHIGHLANDS...TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR ASWINDS BECOME LGT OVNGT.MAX TEMPS ON WED SIMILAR TO TDA (10-15 DEG BELOW CLIMO) WITH MOSTLOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. HI CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROMTHE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON WED. CLOUDS WILL LOWERAND THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY.&&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER MONTANA WHILESOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US THISAFTERNOON PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. PHASING OF THESE PIECES OFENERGY REMAINS AN ISSUE AS IT AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWAND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH THE ECMWFCONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST/WARMEST/SLOWEST AND FARTHEST WEST. THENAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BUT THE GFS HAS THE LOWEST QPF.PREFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE GFS...HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS ASOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATE STORM WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING OVERTHE GULF OF MEXICO...THE QPF LOOKS WELL ON THE LOW SIDE...AND HAVEINCREASED QPF TO MORE OF A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/WPC. SNOW RATIOS WILLSTART OUT BETWEEN 11:1 AND 12:1 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO15:1 TO THE WEST AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD. AS WARM NOSEPUSHES IN ACROSS THE EAST...SNOW RATIOS WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY ASSLEET THEN RAIN MIXES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. POTENTIALFOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN SWATH ON NORTHERN SIDEOF 700MB FGEN FORCING WHERE NEGATIVE EPV INSTABILITY SITS JUST ATOPFORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LEVEL ON A CROSS-SECTION. AT THISTIME...THIS BANDING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO SET UP TO THE WEST OF I-95 ONA CORRIDOR FROM NEAR CHO TO IAD TO N/NE MD. MAXIMIZED OMEGA INDENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGH SNOWRATES...ESPECIALLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. SNOW TOTALSLOOKING IMPRESSIVE WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGEDUE TO INITIALLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WILLLIKELY BE SOME TUNING OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE STORM NEARS...ANDWILL MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. THE EDGESREMAIN MOST QUESTIONABLE DUE TO POTENTIAL RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINEACROSS METRO AREAS AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND ALSO WITH THELOCATION OF THE CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SNOW BANDS TOWARDWESTERN MARYLAND/EASTERN WV.&&.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. WINDS WILLSHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONTPUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULDBE A COUPLE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...GIVENTHAT THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARDACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECASTNOW. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS FRONT AND ITSENERGY WILL BE A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM.THE ASSOCIATED UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHOREFRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONTHROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR WILL BECOME REINFORCED AS THE HIGHBUILDS EAST.A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGIONSATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM...LIKE THE SECONDSTORM...SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING. LATELY...MODELS ARE NOT PLAYING UPTHIS THIRD STORM SYSTEM AS MUCH AS THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS. AS A MATTEROF FACT...GFS WANTS TO WASH THIS STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE MAIN FLOWAND INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. IT WOULD NOTSURPRISE ME THAT THE GFS FLIP-FLOPS WITH THIS THIRD SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TO ALLOW A SLIGHT BUT GRADUALRETURN FLOW. THIS RETURN FLOW SHOULD FEED SOME MOISTURE INTO A STORMSYSTEM LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS HAS INTENSIFYINGACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO MODEL ALSO INTENSIFIES THISSTORM SYSTEM...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. APERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD POSE MORE OF A RAIN THREAT RATHERTHAN SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO INDICATE EITHER ONE. MODELS ALSOINDICATE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY COULD REACH THE MIDDLE 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 nice hit what hour do you start trusting the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still at a Watch as of 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At least it's not going up the west coast of the Chesapeake Bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 42 1000 just SE of Ocean City 45 same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 complete pummeling...why cant the NAM be a better model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 what hour do you start trusting the NAM? Now. I trust it now. Wheelhouse. Every weenie term applicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still cold through 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 complete pummeling...why cant the NAM be a better model I sure as heck would rather it do this than join the others in dashing hopes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still at a Watch as of 3pm It will be a warning by tonight. At least the low is not into the Chesapeake Bay on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS has its "most likely" for VA. Pretty aggressive. Gives Cville to Staunton 20-25% of picking up more than 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still cold through 42 hrs. cold the whole time...there may be a warm nose at 900mb, but i dont think it gets to DC...925mb gets just past southern MD but never advances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still cold through 42 hrs. 850's are well south of us at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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