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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kevin Druff

Kevin Druff

Posted
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I think we had 8" or so in Powhatan but for all purposes the storm was over by sunrise despite occasional snow showers all day Saturday. I may have finished close to 12", which probably beat Chester by a mile.

I have been watching this from a distance all week and thinking of your PD 2 event in 2003. Again, the concerns on dry slot and warm nose can wreak havoc on the forecasts there. That seemed like an even more sure forecast at this range That didn't exactly work out as planned.

 

 

I lived in Chester VA at the time (DT land) and picked up 6.5" the evening of Dec before it went over to sleet/rain/ dry slot. Not a bad inial thump, even though that's pretty much all I got through the entire event (areas N and NW of RIC fared much better, especially up here).

 

 

Right; I live in Short Pump and ended up with about 9" on Friday the 18th. Picked up a few more inches the next day, but, yeh, it was over by sunrise.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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I think slower is probably less good given what we've seen today. But here's to a nam'ing. 

Would you rather have more snow or more qpf? That's basically what we are dealing with, but I think snowfall from both scenarios may turn out to be similar, maybe.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

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I think slower is probably less good given what we've seen today. But here's to a nam'ing.

The faster solutions (12z GFS/NAM) are farther east and dampened, leading to reduced rates/warmer sfc/etc..which is a big deal in terms of the front end thump scenario. I'd rather take my chances with a deeper low. I'm hoping the slower 18z NAM is correct.

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

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Agreed and I've been echoing this to the folks in our chat. After 12/2009 and 02/2003, you can't really take some of the raw data too seriously. Any forecast over say 6 or 7", at least officially, is very risky business especially when you consider the trend of the last couple decades with large events.

Yes but AKQ posted 10-14 for areas west of RIC metro to Facebook! Hope it works out for them.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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  [top]000
FXUS61 KLWX 112015 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE CENTER OF SFC HIPRES OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTN WILL BUILD EWD
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TNGT. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY WED. THE NEAR TERM WILL FEATURE
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN NRN MD NEAR THE PA BORDER AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR AS
WINDS BECOME LGT OVNGT.

MAX TEMPS ON WED SIMILAR TO TDA (10-15 DEG BELOW CLIMO) WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. HI CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON WED. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER MONTANA WHILE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. PHASING OF THESE PIECES OF
ENERGY REMAINS AN ISSUE AS IT AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST/WARMEST/SLOWEST AND FARTHEST WEST. THE
NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BUT THE GFS HAS THE LOWEST QPF.
PREFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE GFS...HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS A
SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATE STORM WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE QPF LOOKS WELL ON THE LOW SIDE...AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF TO MORE OF A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/WPC. SNOW RATIOS WILL
START OUT BETWEEN 11:1 AND 12:1 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO
15:1 TO THE WEST AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD. AS WARM NOSE
PUSHES IN ACROSS THE EAST...SNOW RATIOS WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS
SLEET THEN RAIN MIXES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN SWATH ON NORTHERN SIDE
OF 700MB FGEN FORCING WHERE NEGATIVE EPV INSTABILITY SITS JUST ATOP
FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LEVEL ON A CROSS-SECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THIS BANDING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO SET UP TO THE WEST OF I-95 ON
A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR CHO TO IAD TO N/NE MD. MAXIMIZED OMEGA IN
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGH SNOW
RATES...ESPECIALLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. SNOW TOTALS
LOOKING IMPRESSIVE WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
DUE TO INITIALLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TUNING OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE STORM NEARS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. THE EDGES
REMAIN MOST QUESTIONABLE DUE TO POTENTIAL RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINE
ACROSS METRO AREAS AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND ALSO WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SNOW BANDS TOWARD
WESTERN MARYLAND/EASTERN WV.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS FRONT AND ITS
ENERGY WILL BE A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR WILL BECOME REINFORCED AS THE HIGH
BUILDS EAST.

A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM...LIKE THE SECOND
STORM...SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING. LATELY...MODELS ARE NOT PLAYING UP
THIS THIRD STORM SYSTEM AS MUCH AS THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS. AS A MATTER
OF FACT...GFS WANTS TO WASH THIS STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE MAIN FLOW
AND INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. IT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE ME THAT THE GFS FLIP-FLOPS WITH THIS THIRD SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TO ALLOW A SLIGHT BUT GRADUAL
RETURN FLOW. THIS RETURN FLOW SHOULD FEED SOME MOISTURE INTO A STORM
SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS HAS INTENSIFYING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO MODEL ALSO INTENSIFIES THIS
STORM SYSTEM...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD POSE MORE OF A RAIN THREAT RATHER
THAN SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO INDICATE EITHER ONE. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY COULD REACH THE MIDDLE 40S.


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