Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol, best part: IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. Until it shows us getting a foot on the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol, best part: IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. well, today's 18z is really 24 hrs before the event since it will already be snowing down to our not too distant south, soooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 well, today's 18z is really 24 hrs before the event since it will already be snowing down to our not too distant south, soooo.... YUP. if the 18Z NAM holds with a similiar RIC-DCA hit it cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 540 thickness line has ticked west too....d@mnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn how many miles in a tick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Speaking of the NAM any comparisons to 12Z yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I lived in Chester VA at the time (DT land) and picked up 6.5" the evening of Dec before it went over to sleet/rain/ dry slot. Not a bad inial thump, even though that's pretty much all I got through the entire event (areas N and NW of RIC fared much better, especially up here). The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 YUP. if the 18Z NAM holds with a similiar RIC-DCA hit it cannot be ignored. although though happy as well, I'll be shocked if it doesn't come west to a point of taint of some sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Speaking of the NAM any comparisons to 12Z yet? Looks like more moisture through hr 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 how many miles in a tick? 25ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twax1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG update...5-14 inches...I have never seen a range like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 although though happy as well, I'll be shocked if it doesn't come west to a point of taint of some sort I'm pretty sure it will. The best we can hope for is no dry slot and a limited time for the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FYI. That is solely based on surface temps. So it's extremely misleading. Yeah, you're right. I'm sure the oceans will boil tomorrow. Why are you even in the Mid Atlantic thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I brought the dry slot up last night during the EURO play by play and it was not talked about I think it will set up along the Bay within 25 miles ether side. The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A little late to the party wrt to the EURO but that band that comes through DC metro hour 60-66 has some potential imo. Everything has cooled by that point and it looks like it has a center stripe of 0.25. Could be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 southern vort a little slower and deeper at 21 hrs vs. 12z at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I brought the dry slot up last night during the EURO play by play and it was not talked about I think it will set up along the Bay within 25 miles ether side. If it's not going to be cold enough here anyway, I volunteer for the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Parsing 10 mile changes in squiggly lines on a smoothed SREF mean doesn't seem super useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I lived in Chester VA at the time (DT land) and picked up 6.5" the evening of Dec before it went over to sleet/rain/ dry slot. Not a bad inial thump, even though that's pretty much all I got through the entire event (areas N and NW of RIC fared much better, especially up here). I think we had 8" or so in Powhatan but for all purposes the storm was over by sunrise despite occasional snow showers all day Saturday. I may have finished close to 12", which probably beat Chester by a mile. I have been watching this from a distance all week and thinking of your PD 2 event in 2003. Again, the concerns on dry slot and warm nose can wreak havoc on the forecasts there. That seemed like an even more sure forecast at this range That didn't exactly work out as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM slower thru 28 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The system is coming in slower on 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG update...5-14 inches...I have never seen a range like that... That's the combo of two different regions; 8-14" extending from the WV panhandle to PG County 5-10." They had to merge them for a headline as people read the Post across a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I looked at the 15z parallel SREF which is better than the operational SREF since it corrects two major bugs in the current operational configuration. The good news is that the mean is wetter than the ops mean, with 1"+ of liquid covering more of DC metro to the north and west. The bad news is that only 6 of the 21 members have the precip type at DCA as snow at 12z Thursday. The rest are rain or freezing rain. That doesn't preclude, however, a big front-end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The system is coming in slower on 18Z NAM Slower is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 comparing 850 temps on the SREF at 51 vs. 57 on the last run, the 0-line has ticked west by 10-20 miles trend is no longer our friend this afternoon NAM is next to follow suit, though I hope not We saw this coming didn't we? Hopefully the front end delivers as promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM slower thru 28 hrs precip shield looks further west too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Parsing 10 mile changes in squiggly lines on a smoothed SREF mean doesn't seem super useful. but it shows what the trend is, and it sadly worked last weekend when the wheels started falling off the wagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think slower is probably less good given what we've seen today. But here's to a nam'ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM gets snow in here around 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west. Agreed and I've been echoing this to the folks in our chat. After 12/2009 and 02/2003, you can't really take some of the raw data too seriously. Any forecast over say 6 or 7", at least officially, is very risky business especially when you consider the trend of the last couple decades with large events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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