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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxMan1

WxMan1

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I lived in Chester VA at the time (DT land) and picked up 6.5" the evening of Dec before it went over to sleet/rain/ dry slot. Not a bad inial thump, even though that's pretty much all I got through the entire event (areas N and NW of RIC fared much better, especially up here).

The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west.

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WhiteoutMD

WhiteoutMD

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I brought the dry slot up last night during the EURO play by play and it was not talked about  I think it will set up along the Bay within 25 miles ether side.

The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west.

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

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I lived in Chester VA at the time (DT land) and picked up 6.5" the evening of Dec before it went over to sleet/rain/ dry slot. Not a bad inial thump, even though that's pretty much all I got through the entire event (areas N and NW of RIC fared much better, especially up here).

I think we had 8" or so in Powhatan but for all purposes the storm was over by sunrise despite occasional snow showers all day Saturday. I may have finished close to 12", which probably beat Chester by a mile.

I have been watching this from a distance all week and thinking of your PD 2 event in 2003. Again, the concerns on dry slot and warm nose can wreak havoc on the forecasts there. That seemed like an even more sure forecast at this range That didn't exactly work out as planned.

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high risk

high risk

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I looked at the 15z parallel SREF which is better than the operational SREF since it corrects two major bugs in the current operational configuration.   The good news is that the mean is wetter than the ops mean, with 1"+ of liquid covering more of DC metro to the north and west.    The bad news is that only 6 of the 21 members have the precip type at DCA as snow at 12z Thursday.   The rest are rain or freezing rain.   That doesn't preclude, however, a big front-end dump.

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

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The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west.

Agreed and I've been echoing this to the folks in our chat. After 12/2009 and 02/2003, you can't really take some of the raw data too seriously. Any forecast over say 6 or 7", at least officially, is very risky business especially when you consider the trend of the last couple decades with large events.

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