yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Counties bordering the SW corner of LWX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA205 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY....A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY ALONGTHE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURENORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACEDURING THAT TIME WILL CAUSE THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY ASSNOW...WITH A FEW HOURS OF SLEET POSSIBLE EAST OF DANVILLE VA.STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...IN ADDITION TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WILLLEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND 10 TO 14 INCHESACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.VAZ011-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-120315-/O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0002.140212T1100Z-140214T0300Z//O.EXB.KRNK.WS.W.0004.140212T1800Z-140213T2300Z/GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE205 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAYTO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.* MAIN IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's a pretty decent call. I think knowing what we know now, if we took a clustered approach from the models and ensemble members, throwing out the outliers, I think you get that 4-6 or 4-8" range. Before the 12Z guidance I thought the 5-10 (CWG) was a very good call. It still may be, though I think with the focus on the lower end of that range. I.E. the probs of 4" is still decently high, but I think the probs for us in the 8-10" range went down a bit with the 12Z blended guidance. Split the difference with your 4-6 and LWX's 6-8" and you get 4-8". Works for me for now, as long as that ends up being the lowest forecast :-) If I had to give a guess I would say 4"-6" in the Baltimore area with mixing and rain later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd take 3/4 of that right now, which would be 3" better than the 1/2 and 1/21 Miller B's for me.. FYI. That is solely based on surface temps. So it's extremely misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps. Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous. Still snow overnight though! From Jim Cisco's Facebook: ***SOME BIG, UGLY FLIES IN THE WEATHER OINTMENT WITH THE NEWEST DATA COMING IN. IT IS NOW NOT POSSIBLE TO GIVE A MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL FORECAST COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FOR THE STORM EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY. THE INTRUSION OF WARM AIR IS AN EMERGENT, GLARING ISSUE. WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW-VS-RAIN, ALL BETS ARE OFF ON ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, THE GENERAL FORECAST I ISSUED LATE LAST EVENING SHOULD SERVE REASONABLY. I WILL UPDATE WITH WHAT INFORMATION I CAN LATER IN THE DAY. MEA CULPA*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Throwing in the towel? They have? Haha...well with regard to Thursday and big snow accums. Hoping for at best sleet with the 12Z suite warming as it did. Were joking about the downsloping calling it a chinook on Thursday into Friday. But I'm just overhearing their banter...I'd wait for their official forecasts if I were me. EDIT: also obviously there's time for a jog east so "throwing in the towel" was not exactly accurate. Sorry for the unnecessary excitement! But the post above from Jim's FB page more or less says what I was hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Slight NW movement of 1" line compared to 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd take 3/4 of that right now, which would be 3" better than the 1/2 and 1/21 Miller B's for me.. I was just pointing it out from following along. we have had some crazy outputs on those wxbell maps in the Midwest and they would have 6-18" of snow where it would mostly be sleet and zr hundreds of miles off. On our local blog Pro Met Chris Higgins has banned those maps for the most part because of how ridiculous they are. Where you guys are the threat of mix is not near as much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks Yoda, how are Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREFs suggest that 0c 2m line does not get to DCA till 15z THUR... 850s are good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks yoda, put the SREFs in the big hit column with NAM and UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Haha...well with regard to Thursday and big snow accums. Hoping for at best sleet with the 12Z suite warming as it did. Were joking about the downsloping calling it a chinook on Thursday into Friday. But I'm just overhearing their banter...I'd wait for their official forecasts if I were me. EDIT: also obviously there's time for a jog east so "throwing in the towel" was not exactly accurate. Sorry for the unnecessary excitement! But the post above from Jim's FB page more or less says what I was hearing. which is reasonable given the changes in the 12z models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I dont get the unhappiness over the Euro. It is still an incredible storm for everyone as depicted. And no model is going to be able to say where the heavy bands will pass through. Do the cities mix? Of course, they always do with big storms. But this run is still huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If guidance is suggesting a blend of models, then I would not take Euro verbatim. I think DCA will do better than modeled right now. Sure we have a warm nose, but it is headed into a pretty cold air mass etc as per WXMan's post. This is not the time to jump ship. We weren't going to have a big event anyway this winter. Hugging all the modeled snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Aren't we at the time when SREFs and the NAM/RGEM are more useful than the global (36-48 hours) We still have a good solid regionwide hit on all 3 of them right now so what's the serious concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I dont get the unhappiness over the Euro. It is still an incredible storm for everyone as depicted. And no model is going to be able to say where the heavy bands will pass through. Do the cities mix? Of course, they always do with big storms. But this run is still huge. Def agree... yes we all want 12"+... but 6-10 is still nice. The EPS mean has constantly been slightly east of the OP (zwyts or Bob Chill can confirm this I believe)... so lets wait for that before tightening the noose a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CNN is apparently hugging the NAM or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warnings from LWX should be coming soon... CTP issued one for Lancaster/York/Adams URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK AND NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOWIS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LATEST DATA INDICATES ANINCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH GOODCONFIDENCE THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHAMBERSBURG TOHARRISBURG LINE COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH 10 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERSOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER. ASHARP GRADIENT AND DROP OFF IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTEDNORTH AND WEST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA.PAZ064>066-121000-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 213 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 VALID FEB 11/1200 UTC THRU FEB 15/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ..EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE...BELOW AVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE DESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVING ENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EAST COAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TO ONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST. THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN MEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND IS CORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE MOST CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE BEEN THE ECMWF AND UKMET...AND THEY DISPLAYED THE SAME TREND ON THE 12Z CYCLE...SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHICH YIELDS A WARMER SOLUTION NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BLENDING THESE TWO MODELS TOWARD THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS OUR APPROACH FOR FAVORING THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS THAT ARE DISPLAYING SMALL SCALE TRENDS...WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE CONTINUED WIDER RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REPRESENTED ESPECIALLY BY THE FASTER NCEP GUIDANCE. THE GEFS MEAN CLUSTERED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHEREAS THE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER. THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUN DID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH YIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CNN is apparently hugging the NAM or something. SREF has support for that too I guess, maybe the UKIE too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Funny that DT has completely ignored the 12Z Euro on his page. He's riding the NAM which buries him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Funny that DT has completely ignored the 12Z Euro on his page. He's riding the NAM which buries him. to be fair, he hasn't mentioned anything since the 12z nam came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warnings from LWX should be coming soon... CTP issued one for Lancaster/York/Adams URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK AND NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOWIS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LATEST DATA INDICATES ANINCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH GOODCONFIDENCE THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHAMBERSBURG TOHARRISBURG LINE COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH 10 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERSOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER. ASHARP GRADIENT AND DROP OFF IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTEDNORTH AND WEST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA.PAZ064>066-121000-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY... Still looking good for westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREFs suggest that 0c 2m line does not get to DCA till 15z THUR... 850s are good to go Unfortunately, 925-950 is a problematic layer as well which isn't readily avbl with the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 to be fair, he hasn't mentioned anything since the 12z nam came out. I think that's the point clskinsfan was making...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 to be fair, he hasn't mentioned anything since the 12z nam came out. He has not mentioned anything about models but he posting on other things... which to me means he ignoring them and going with what gives the most in his backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Def agree... yes we all want 12"+... but 6-10 is still nice. The EPS mean has constantly been slightly east of the OP (zwyts or Bob Chill can confirm this I believe)... so lets wait for that before tightening the noose a bit more comparing 850 temps on the SREF at 51 vs. 57 on the last run, the 0-line has ticked west by 10-20 miles trend is no longer our friend this afternoon NAM is next to follow suit, though I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unfortunately, 925-950 is a problematic layer as well which isn't readily avbl with the SREF. Define "problem" Like 1C at worst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol, best part: IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 comparing 850 temps on the SREF at 51 vs. 57 on the last run, the 0-line has ticked west by 10-20 miles trend is no longer our friend this afternoon NAM is next to follow suit, though I hope not 540 thickness line has ticked west too....d@mnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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