February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[vinylfreak89]

The euro being on the west end I'm actually very happy with this run. The one thing that concerns me is the lack of a deformation axis... and I think it is due to the high amount of convection off the coast. That will need to be watched very closely.

[stormtracker]

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

They have?

[mitchnick]

well, Boston's 850 temps get up to 6.8C, so there's some solace

[Interstate]

well I guess we wait until the 0z suite to see if all models can come up with the same solution.  By that time... we should be around 24 hours from the start.

[WxMan1]

Yep. Whether this overperforms or not is gonna strictly depend on what we get along the back end CCB. Especially if we can get convective banding..

It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...dryslot, light snow/mix for a few hours...then picks back up 10-11am and rips pretty good until 4-5pm...then back to lighter stuff through the evening..my guess is during the "2nd phase" we are 32-33 ...we pop warm by 7pm but I think that is because we are light precip by then....if we can get into good banding in the 11am - 4pm period, we should be ok to add another 2-4" on top of our initial 6"....all based on euro

[Ian]

It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...dryslot, light snow/mix for a few hours...then picks back up 10-11am and rips pretty good until 4-5pm...then back to lighter stuff through the evening..my guess is during the "2nd phase" we are 32-33 ...we pop warm by 7pm but I think that is because we are light precip by then....if we can get into good banding in the 11am - 4pm period, we should be ok to add another 2-4" on top of our initial 6"....all based on euro

this run verbatim I wouldn't expect much on the back end imby.. we never get back into good rates and the sfc is very marginal.. but it could shift back east a bit of course. 

[snowdude]

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

They're throwing in the towel?

[mitchnick]

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

and, sadly, there's plenty of time for this thing to just go down the tubes as we saw 10 days ago

[MN Transplant]

Does that comma head kind of move east as the low moves out to the northeast, after 15Z?

 

It does, but it isn't heavy precip and the surface is above freezing.

[Deck Pic]

word of caution about 3/6/13

 

 - We were low 50s on the 5th...there was no antecedent high pressure...it was like 85 degrees in Montreal

 - Sun angle of course

 - temp was 33-34 most of the morning and mid to upper 30s in afternoon...it is much harder to rebound from mid 20s in February than a brief period of 32-33 in March

 

I am not as worried about a march 6th crap-out during the day on Thursday as long as we get precip in here...

[mitchnick]

They have?

they hug models too Randy

[NOVAForecaster]

[Deck Pic]

this run verbatim I wouldn't expect much on the back end imby.. we never get back into good rates and the sfc is very marginal.. but it could shift back east a bit of course. 

 

I think we'd get some good precip Thursday  in shorter period of time than spread out....but that is a guess...I could see a 3-5 hour period even as depicted on 12z euro where we are 32-33 and ripping and that should be fine for February...we were 32 on Sunday and we did fine in our 45 minutes of 0.03 QPF

[Ian]

snow depth maps are contaminated by snow on the ground to begin with up north...

[Ian]

I think we'd get some good precip Thursday  in shorter period of time than spread out....but that is a guess...I could see a 3-5 hour period even as depicted on 12z euro where we are 32-33 and ripping and that should be fine for February...we were 32 on Sunday and we did fine in our 45 minutes of 0.03 QPF

yeah could be. i probably just need a break. i got invested in the run last night.  

[va_ghost]

We need the NAM to save our hopes and dreams.  Yeah, I said it.   NAM.

 

On a serious note, that dry slot is a nasty concern on the Euro.   Not only do we have to worry about warm air, now we worry about dry slotting...although with warm air, maybe that's not such a bad thing. 

 

6 to 8 inches, followed by drizzle and drip drip all day.     I want to cry.

 

 

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

Since my other post disappeared - so if the DC folks (I think.. they use US and WE often) are now worried about warm air and westward track then Fredericksburg -> south is taking a nosedive b/c of mixed precipitation?

[MacChump]

Since my other post disappeared - so if the DC folks (I think.. they use US and WE often) are now worried about warm air and westward track then Fredericksburg -> south is taking a nosedive b/c of mixed precipitation?

like RIC perhaps?

[yoda]

I think we just need to relax some... NAM was good... UKIE/GGEM very nice... GFS sucked... and EURO is okay (will see ensembles later)...

[snowdude]

That's snow depth and should not be looked at.

[WxMan1]

Plus, a word of caution regarding trends when the onset of the event is STILL 30+ hours away....

Yeah these westward, warmer trends could continue, but I think we've seen from experience there's at least an equal chance the trend stops or goes the other way.

This I know, despite the surface high not being in the right location: we've got a lot of antecedent cold air gping into this event, including cold and snow/ice covered conditions all the way to the NC Outer Banks, along with colder than normal shelf water temps just west of the Gulf Stream.

So, if you don't mind, the weenie in me will cling to a more eastern low track until the bitter end :-)

word of caution about 3/6/13

- We were low 50s on the 5th...there was no antecedent high pressure...it was like 85 degrees in Montreal

- Sun angle of course

- temp was 33-34 most of the morning and mid to upper 30s in afternoon...it is much harder to rebound from mid 20s in February than a brief period of 32-33 in March

I am not as worried about a march 6th crap-out during the day on Thursday as long as we get precip in here...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

A couple of thoughts here.

 

1)I know the EURO is on the western edge of the guidance with the 850 low track and WPC prefers an adjustment SE but hey its the EURO and we're getting really close to the storm.  It seems likely that GFS will adjust west given the EURO's consistency.

 

2) If the EURO track ends up being a little too far West, can DC metro get in on some good deform action?

[NOVAForecaster]

Not sure where you got that but that's not what I am seeing on the EURO

 

snow depth maps are contaminated by snow on the ground to begin with up north...

 

Posted the wrong one. The correct one is here:

 

[Deck Pic]

Plus, a word of caution regarding "" when the onset of yhe event is STILL 30+ hours away....

Yeah these westward, warmer trends could continue, but I think we've seen from experience there's at least an equal chance the trend stops or goes the other way.

This I know, despite the surface high not being in the right location: we've got a lot of antecedent cold air gping into this event, including cold and snow/ice covered conditions all the way to the NC Outer Banks, along with colder than normal shelf water temps just west of the Gulf Stream.

So, if you don't mind, the weenie in me will cling to a more eastern low track until the bitter end :-)

 

 

 

good points..though I'd like a solution that is the wettest by 12z....After that is a wildcard

[Interstate]

Posted the wrong one. The correct one is here:

 

 

YOu are posting an access is denied page

[WxMan1]

Don't worry folks, the 18Z NAM will alleviate all fears!

(I didn't say that...)

In all seriousness, we do have to be mindful of the NAM and the RAP (thus the SREF) cool bias within the lower layers. That reality reared it's ugly head during the March 6 event, when the NAM and succesive RAP runs kept trending colder right before the onset of the event.

It pains me to bring this up because I'm going to want to latch on the coldest solution.

[Deck Pic]

 

 

you get like 12-14" on this run

[mappy]

Euro sounding for Westminster keeps 850 temp below freezing, closest is gets is at 18z with -0.8

 

works for me

[RickinBaltimore]

If I had to give a guess I would say 4"-6" in the Baltimore area with mixing and rain later in the day.

[Quasievil]

The temperature profiles setting up this way (POSSIBLY) shouldn't be a surprise to a lot of folks east of 95. This is how the majority of the storms this year have setup. I don't want it to be right either but it's believable given how the trends this season have played out. Sorry for being a Debbie Downer and I hope I'm wrong. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Posted the wrong one. The correct one is here:

 

 

FYI.  That is solely based on surface temps.  So it's extremely misleading.