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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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swimmatte

swimmatte

Posted
Posted

THU    06Z 13-FEB    -3.2     -3.9    1021    88 98    0.18    554 537
THU    12Z 13-FEB    -0.5      0.0    1010    93 99    0.55    552 544
THU    18Z 13-FEB     0.9      2.8      998    91 76    0.21    546 547
FRI     00Z 14-FEB     1.2     -1.2      992    89 53    0.15    533 540
FRI     06Z 14-FEB     1.8     -2.7      996    87 90    0.25    532 536 

 

DCA

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The GFS is a pretty significant outlier overnight, but I can buy a prolonged light event during the day.  How much QPF for DCA through 12?

 

- 0.77" I see.  Fits right in with the NAM and others.  6-8" and then we take our chances.

 

 

yeah...and we'd flip by 5am or so I would guess...but based on my maps, I'd guess 90% of that 0.77" is by 4-5am....11pm - 4am could be ripping  +SN which is pretty cool...which means I'll stay up for most of it..sleep for 3-4 hours and wake up to light mix falling on cleared roads

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WxMan1

WxMan1

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That's still (hopefully) a nice 4-6" frontside thump for most of us. After that, it's looking more like March 6th, not so much with the thermals, but possibly lighter precip east of the def band. I guess if we're going to mix or change over to sleet/rain/drizzle, it may as well be light.

But again, it's becoming apparent that what's going to allow DC-Balt and points east to get more than 6" would depend on what we can get from the deformation band as it lifts NE. Not a good sign if we end up well to the east...

THU 06Z 13-FEB -3.2 -3.9 1021 88 98 0.18 554 537

THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.5 0.0 1010 93 99 0.55 552 544

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Ian

Ian

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Surface isn't the main problem.  850 track is way too close.

 

yeah, was just thinking more about the high placement overall.  where it is helps allow the close in track. the low basically gets to St Mary's county.  i'm almost ready to punt anything in the day thursday.. once we lose it, not getting it back easy imo. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

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yeah...and we'd flip by 5am or so I would guess...but based on my maps, I'd guess 90% of that 0.77" is by 4-5am....11pm - 4am could be ripping  +SN which is pretty cool...which means I'll stay up for most of it..sleep for 3-4 hours and wake up to light mix falling on cleared roads

flip to rain?

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yeah, was just thinking more about the high placement overall.  where it is helps allow the close in track. the low basically gets to St Mary's county.  i'm almost ready to punt anything in the day thursday.. once we lose it, not getting it back easy imo. 

 

It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...dryslot, light snow/mix for a few hours...then picks back up 10-11am and rips pretty good until 4-5pm...then back to lighter stuff through the evening..my guess is during the "2nd phase" we are 32-33 ...we pop warm by 7pm but I think that is because we are light precip by then....if we can get into good banding in the 11am - 4pm period, we should be ok to add another 2-4" on top of our initial 6"....all based on euro

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

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It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...dryslot, light snow/mix for a few hours...then picks back up 10-11am and rips pretty good until 4-5pm...then back to lighter stuff through the evening..my guess is during the "2nd phase" we are 32-33 ...we pop warm by 7pm but I think that is because we are light precip by then....if we can get into good banding in the 11am - 4pm period, we should be ok to add another 2-4" on top of our initial 6"....all based on euro

sounds like a good run to me. Any movement eastward between now and start time would only be a bonus.

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ohleary

ohleary

Posted
Posted

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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We need the NAM to save our hopes and dreams.  Yeah, I said it.   NAM.

 

On a serious note, that dry slot is a nasty concern on the Euro.   Not only do we have to worry about warm air, now we worry about dry slotting...although with warm air, maybe that's not such a bad thing. 

 

6 to 8 inches, followed by drizzle and drip drip all day.     I want to cry.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
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WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

 

Throwing in the towel?

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