February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Where's Ian with his precip maps?

[va_ghost]

What did Euro do to RIC? Warm?

[Ian]

Where's Ian with his precip maps?

Sobbing for now. Sorry. 

[jlewis1111]

What did Euro do to RIC? Warm?

no basically same as 0z run

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sobbing for now. Sorry. 

Is it that bad?

[Ian]

JB1 map is all kinds of wut

 

[swimmatte]

THU    06Z 13-FEB    -3.2     -3.9    1021    88 98    0.18    554 537
THU    12Z 13-FEB    -0.5      0.0    1010    93 99    0.55    552 544
THU    18Z 13-FEB     0.9      2.8      998    91 76    0.21    546 547
FRI     00Z 14-FEB     1.2     -1.2      992    89 53    0.15    533 540
FRI     06Z 14-FEB     1.8     -2.7      996    87 90    0.25    532 536 

 

DCA

[MN Transplant]

The problems with a less than stellar surface. 

 

Surface isn't the main problem.  850 track is way too close.

[stormtracker]

THU 06Z     13-FEB     -3.2     -3.9      1021      88 98     0.18    554 537

THU 12Z     13-FEB     -0.5      0.0      1010      93 99     0.55    552 544 

Thanks.  Looks like .73

[Deck Pic]

The GFS is a pretty significant outlier overnight, but I can buy a prolonged light event during the day.  How much QPF for DCA through 12?

 

- 0.77" I see.  Fits right in with the NAM and others.  6-8" and then we take our chances.

 

 

yeah...and we'd flip by 5am or so I would guess...but based on my maps, I'd guess 90% of that 0.77" is by 4-5am....11pm - 4am could be ripping  +SN which is pretty cool...which means I'll stay up for most of it..sleep for 3-4 hours and wake up to light mix falling on cleared roads

[WxMan1]

That's still (hopefully) a nice 4-6" frontside thump for most of us. After that, it's looking more like March 6th, not so much with the thermals, but possibly lighter precip east of the def band. I guess if we're going to mix or change over to sleet/rain/drizzle, it may as well be light.

But again, it's becoming apparent that what's going to allow DC-Balt and points east to get more than 6" would depend on what we can get from the deformation band as it lifts NE. Not a good sign if we end up well to the east...

THU 06Z 13-FEB -3.2 -3.9 1021 88 98 0.18 554 537

THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.5 0.0 1010 93 99 0.55 552 544

[ravensrule]

This is not great:

 

The Hi-res Euro maps show 986mb low tucks into Chesapeake Bay between 54-60hrs. Before tracking ENE

[ravensrule]

JB1 map is all kinds of wut

 

He put out that map early this morning and said 1-2' in the purple area  .

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

I'm having trouble reading the graphics from my mobile, but am I reading right that the Euro shows sleet, maybe even rain, for a sizable chunk of our QPF?  

[Deck Pic]

Surface isn't the main problem.  850 track is way too close.

 

yeah ...there is a nasty dryslot that I bet comes in by dawn...Jan 26 2011 for 6-7 hours and then March 6, 2013 for 20 hours

[nj2va]

0.7 falls here through 12z Thursday. 

 

850s are -1 to -2 here by 00z Friday (warm nose likely elsewhere).  Another 0.1 to 0.15 (ish) falls after 00z. 

[Ian]

Surface isn't the main problem.  850 track is way too close.

 

yeah, was just thinking more about the high placement overall.  where it is helps allow the close in track. the low basically gets to St Mary's county.  i'm almost ready to punt anything in the day thursday.. once we lose it, not getting it back easy imo. 

[BristowWx]

yeah...and we'd flip by 5am or so I would guess...but based on my maps, I'd guess 90% of that 0.77" is by 4-5am....11pm - 4am could be ripping  +SN which is pretty cool...which means I'll stay up for most of it..sleep for 3-4 hours and wake up to light mix falling on cleared roads

flip to rain?

[peribonca]

Euro is outlier with low track by 100-150 miles further west right?

[EasternUSWX]

[WxMan1]

How highly irregular would it be for much of NC to cash in on some pretty decent snowfall today and yet we here would have ptype issues some 36 hours later?

What sucks is we still have 2 more Euro runs before precip falls to cash in or bust further.

[mappy]

LWX snow map

[Deck Pic]

yeah, was just thinking more about the high placement overall.  where it is helps allow the close in track. the low basically gets to St Mary's county.  i'm almost ready to punt anything in the day thursday.. once we lose it, not getting it back easy imo. 

 

It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...dryslot, light snow/mix for a few hours...then picks back up 10-11am and rips pretty good until 4-5pm...then back to lighter stuff through the evening..my guess is during the "2nd phase" we are 32-33 ...we pop warm by 7pm but I think that is because we are light precip by then....if we can get into good banding in the 11am - 4pm period, we should be ok to add another 2-4" on top of our initial 6"....all based on euro

[MN Transplant]

yeah ...there is a nasty dryslot that I bet comes in by dawn...Jan 26 2011 for 6-7 hours and then March 6, 2013 for 20 hours

 

wunderground skipped over 12z, but you can see it plain as day at 15z

 

[Wonderdog]

It looks like a 2-phase storm for DC based on euro...thump until 5-6 am...dryslot, light snow/mix for a few hours...then picks back up 10-11am and rips pretty good until 4-5pm...then back to lighter stuff through the evening..my guess is during the "2nd phase" we are 32-33 ...we pop warm by 7pm but I think that is because we are light precip by then....if we can get into good banding in the 11am - 4pm period, we should be ok to add another 2-4" on top of our initial 6"....all based on euro

sounds like a good run to me. Any movement eastward between now and start time would only be a bonus.

[ohleary]

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

wunderground skipped over 12z, but you can see it plain as day at 15z

 

rh 15z.JPG

 

Does that comma head kind of move east as the low moves out to the northeast, after 15Z?

[aldie 22]

Euro is still the most west of ll models right? Is it reasonable to think the correct solution is still a bit east of what it has now?

[stormtracker]

We need the NAM to save our hopes and dreams.  Yeah, I said it.   NAM.

 

On a serious note, that dry slot is a nasty concern on the Euro.   Not only do we have to worry about warm air, now we worry about dry slotting...although with warm air, maybe that's not such a bad thing. 

 

6 to 8 inches, followed by drizzle and drip drip all day.     I want to cry.

[mappy]

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

 

Throwing in the towel?