February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[yoda]

Just to clarify, that would be 38 mm or approx 1.5" of LIQUID EQUIVALENT going into snow, not 1.5" of snowfall, correct?

 

 

That is correct.  38mm = 1.5" QPF (Liquid Equiv)

[MN Transplant]

NCEP WRFs are a lot different from each other, but not terrible (like whichever WRF they are running for the RPM)

 

ARW is fast and wet.  1.25" QPF, all snow by 12z

NMM is slow, but still wet.  0.5" QPF snow by 12z, with the low still south of Wilmington and the snow shield back to SC.

[yoda]

Low south of FL Panhandle at 30... don't see any major differences with 12z EURO so far compared to 00z... zwyts, you agree?

[GD0815]

 

That is correct.  38mm = 1.5" QPF (Liquid Equiv)

 

quick and easy conversion 1 Inch=25mm

[Deck Pic]

euro, snowing just after 7pm

[Deck Pic]

euro holds through 42..

[Deck Pic]

warmer slower through 48.. juicy

[Deck Pic]

warmer...deform sets up well west of DC

[Ian]

low less impressive.. and kinda ugh after the front end thump 

[Deck Pic]

through 60...~1.2 for DCA..more west....warmish...deform sets up well west

[Ian]

backside still looks decent but the middle is not so nice around here 

[stormtracker]

warmer...deform sets up well west of DC

shocker.

[mitchnick]

through 60...~1.2 for DCA..more west....warmish...deform sets up well west

yeah, that 5H map Yoda put up told me it would be west

closed too early for us

[stormtracker]

warmer...deform sets up well west of DC

shocker

[Deck Pic]

through 72 - 1.25+ for most of area..1.5" for some western areas...ends 2am friday...lol

[Deck Pic]

we get dryslotted after I'd say 4am...all about the front thump..no guarantees after that...

[Ian]

main diff probably the low doesn't bomb out as quick around here. haven't looked at 500 etc yet. track slightly west. still passable but I'm leaning more toward putting my eggs all in the front part. 

[snowfan]

yeah, that 5H map Yoda put up told me it would be west

closed too early for us

Still a nice front end thump for us.

[clskinsfan]

Sounds similar to the Ukie?

[Deck Pic]

main diff probably the low doesn't bomb out as quick around here. haven't looked at 500 etc yet. track slightly west. still passable but I'm leaning more toward putting my eggs all in the front part. 

 

and if the GFS is right the front part is meh...at least it will be cold.....could be a massive bust,...but at least 4" in the city looks likely...

[yoda]

Sounds similar to the Ukie?

 

Its west a little of the UKIE

[mitchnick]

BWI .61" thru 12Z Thurs, probably all snow up to that point but it will be close with the sleet

[stormtracker]

Well, that stung a bit.   Agree with the consensus...time to focus on the front end thump and let the chips fall where they may after that.   QPF from start time to 12z Thurs?

[Deck Pic]

BWI .61" thru 12Z Thurs, probably all snow up to that point but it will be close with the sleet

 

yes...and most of that I am guessing by 4-5 am...it is a nice thump...if the GFS is right...we'll have 1 mi viz during our "thump"

[mitchnick]

BWI .61" thru 12Z Thurs, probably all snow up to that point but it will be close with the sleet

Thiursday 18z, rain with an add'l .24" having fallen since 12Z so it does dry out

I guess it turns back to some snow afterward, but idk

[swimmatte]

Well, that stung a bit.   Agree with the consensus...time to focus on the front end thump and let the chips fall where they may after that.   QPF from start time to 12z Thurs?

 

THU 06Z     13-FEB     -3.2     -3.9      1021      88 98     0.18    554 537

THU 12Z     13-FEB     -0.5      0.0      1010      93 99     0.55    552 544 

[MN Transplant]

yes...and most of that I am guessing by 4-5 am...it is a nice thump...if the GFS is right...we'll have 1 mi viz during our "thump"

 

The GFS is a pretty significant outlier overnight, but I can buy a prolonged light event during the day.  How much QPF for DCA through 12?

 

- 0.73" I see.  Fits right in with the NAM and others.  6-8" and then we take our chances.

[yoda]

The GFS is a pretty significant outlier overnight, but I can buy a prolonged light event during the day.  How much QPF for DCA through 12?

 

I believe it was 0.3

[mitchnick]

meh, still not snow by 0Z Fri, but headed down

Matt said ends at 2AM so hopefully there's more to come

[Ian]

The problems with a less than stellar surface.