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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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jums300

jums300

Posted
Posted

Ugh.  Blend the GFS with the NAM/RGEM/UKMET/Euro and you have a 5-6" snowstorm with some mess during the day on Thursday.  Not bad, but we were all teased by the prospect of more.  The RPM doesn't make any sense at all.

Take the GFS out of the equation and you can bump those totals...

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

Well things are as clear as mud! Seems 4 to 12 inches would cover most.. someone will get more..at this point do we put less stock in the EURO and start to focus on GFS or what.. SHEESH! I was out and had to read 3 pages to get some real analysis though! So this comment also is not helpful for people. Sorry!

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Well things are as clear as mud! Seems 4 to 12 inches would cover most.. someone will get more..at this point do we put less stock in the EURO and start to focus on GFS or what.. SHEESH! I was out and had to read 3 pages to get some real analysis though! So this comment also is not helpful for people. Sorry!

 

there is a report function, use if it you dont like what you see. we will do better for you next time.

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nieciez

nieciez

Posted
Posted

We just got this phone message from the Orange County (VA) emergency contact system:


 


"This a code red alert message press any key or hold the line to listen. This alert is to notify the Orange County citizens of the potential of severe winter weather beginning in the evening of Wednesday February twelfth. There is a chance for significant snowfall and power outages. Now is the time to prepare for this weather event."


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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

That's very European looking, and at this point, I'll take it!). I (we) brought up the 1/22/1987 analog up on Sunday; it was nice to see that written up recently in the CWG blog. Which is why when I saw the surface features from that storm, I felt compelled to post them. Meteorological events are like snowflakes; no two are exactly alike. Which is why we're all careful with analogs (and rightfully so).

Again, the only thing that's going to give us more widespread 10-14" totals like 1/22/87 is with mesoscale banding and some degree of elevated instability/convection. That would keep (or limit) us east of I95 from mixing or changing over. Otherwise the snow total map will look very climo-ish...from 2-4" far east to 12+ w-nw of DC.

And the thing about getting convection involved, you have to be precariously close to that mid level dry slot to get the negative theta-e lapse rates aloft. As with any type of mesoscale modeling where convection is involved, good luck forecasting that at this point.

With that in mind, I have no problems with the CWG map (nrn AA). The weenie in me would love to call for 8-12", but at this point a broad 5-10" range is a smarter way to go.

CWG issued their call:

BgNYWhDCIAEE0vm.png

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m045400

m045400

Posted
Posted
Latest model discussion from WPC:

"...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILES
SOUTH/EAST

DESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVING
ENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND
SNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EAST
COAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TO
ONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS
IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST.

THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND IS
CORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONG
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUN
OCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE
ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS
THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN
THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN
THE SOUTHERN STATES.

ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND
INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK.

THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUN
DID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
YIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO
PUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1."


 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

This is for DCA:

 

12z UKIE -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us

 

~38mm of snow it would appear

 

12z GGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us

 

~32mm of snow it would appear before a RN/SN mix with another 5mm or so after... total of ~40mm

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bigjohndc

bigjohndc

Posted
Posted

 

Latest model discussion from WPC:

"...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILES

SOUTH/EAST

DESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVING

ENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANT

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND

SNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EAST

COAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TO

ONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING AS

IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS

IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST.

THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN

MEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSED

CIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THE

SURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND IS

CORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONG

SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUN

OCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE

ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS

THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE

WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES

IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE

NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN

THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN

THE SOUTHERN STATES.

ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND

INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH

AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK.

THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUN

DID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM

SHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH

YIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO

PUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1."

 

 

Am I reading that right, that their belief is that the NAM solution was too fast and weak? I liked the result from the 12z, I know that is weenie logic, but it didn't strike me as either. Especially compared to GFS. 

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MidlothianWX

MidlothianWX

Posted
Posted

Utter newbie here so I did not get the humor.  But with the models showing more warmth is this turning into a rain event for RIC area in VA?

Some advice for you...go with climo and you will rarely be disappointed (i.e. lower totals with mixing issues S and E of the city).

 

One run of one model showed rain over the metro. Nothing has trended at this point. NWS WPC still likes a modified Euro track. That would be a nice storm for us - probably our biggest since 2010.

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