RickinBaltimore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One question I do have regarding these models what, if anything, should we take from conditions in the South currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is there a reason that the 12z GGEM is stuck on 36 on the color and B&W and not updating on meteocentre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ugh. Blend the GFS with the NAM/RGEM/UKMET/Euro and you have a 5-6" snowstorm with some mess during the day on Thursday. Not bad, but we were all teased by the prospect of more. The RPM doesn't make any sense at all. Take the GFS out of the equation and you can bump those totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is there a reason that the 12z GGEM is stuck on 36 on the color and B&W and not updating on meteocentre? You can see through hour 108 on E-Wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is there a reason that the 12z GGEM is stuck on 36 on the color and B&W and not updating on meteocentre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Finally appeared on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well things are as clear as mud! Seems 4 to 12 inches would cover most.. someone will get more..at this point do we put less stock in the EURO and start to focus on GFS or what.. SHEESH! I was out and had to read 3 pages to get some real analysis though! So this comment also is not helpful for people. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ava on WBAL goes 4-9 DC to Balt N/W 6-12. Thought mostly snow. Not buying RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well things are as clear as mud! Seems 4 to 12 inches would cover most.. someone will get more..at this point do we put less stock in the EURO and start to focus on GFS or what.. SHEESH! I was out and had to read 3 pages to get some real analysis though! So this comment also is not helpful for people. Sorry! there is a report function, use if it you dont like what you see. we will do better for you next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is there a reason that the 12z GGEM is stuck on 36 on the color and B&W and not updating on meteocentre? it does this all the time...the images are out in 3 hour increments now...and the 984mb just southeast of ocean city is hilarioud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We just got this phone message from the Orange County (VA) emergency contact system: "This a code red alert message press any key or hold the line to listen. This alert is to notify the Orange County citizens of the potential of severe winter weather beginning in the evening of Wednesday February twelfth. There is a chance for significant snowfall and power outages. Now is the time to prepare for this weather event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So, GGEM more or less holds...or perhaps has the low deepening even more than last night's 00Z? Looks like snow-mix-snow, if we get into the back-end deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG issued their call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it does this all the time...the images are out in 3 hour increments now...and the 984mb just southeast of ocean city is hilarioud Take a peek at Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG issued their call: Probably as reasonable as anything for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looks like GGEM was good for 35mm or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It looks like GGEM was good for 35mm or so Any indication of when mix gets in there, or the CCB area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG issued their call: Very possible I think. Holding it at 5-10 locally here for now. Would like to see another run or two of how the hi-res guidance handles the coma head/meso features this afternoon and evening before jumping on the double digit train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any indication of when mix gets in there, or the CCB area? Precip maps are up on meteocentre... it looks really weird http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=066&fixhh=1&hh=042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FWIW -- 12z JMA looks like UKIE... but looks like just a lil warmer in the 850 department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If anyone cares--TWC had DC/Balt metro all snow, 8-12 range. Guess they are riding last nights EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's very European looking, and at this point, I'll take it!). I (we) brought up the 1/22/1987 analog up on Sunday; it was nice to see that written up recently in the CWG blog. Which is why when I saw the surface features from that storm, I felt compelled to post them. Meteorological events are like snowflakes; no two are exactly alike. Which is why we're all careful with analogs (and rightfully so). Again, the only thing that's going to give us more widespread 10-14" totals like 1/22/87 is with mesoscale banding and some degree of elevated instability/convection. That would keep (or limit) us east of I95 from mixing or changing over. Otherwise the snow total map will look very climo-ish...from 2-4" far east to 12+ w-nw of DC. And the thing about getting convection involved, you have to be precariously close to that mid level dry slot to get the negative theta-e lapse rates aloft. As with any type of mesoscale modeling where convection is involved, good luck forecasting that at this point. With that in mind, I have no problems with the CWG map (nrn AA). The weenie in me would love to call for 8-12", but at this point a broad 5-10" range is a smarter way to go. CWG issued their call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest model discussion from WPC:"...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILESSOUTH/EASTDESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVINGENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANTMODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THATTHIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ANDSNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EASTCOAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TOONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THECENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING ASIT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKSIN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST.THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHENMEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSEDCIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THESURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND ISCORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUNOCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCEENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...ASTHERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONEWILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOESIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THENAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY INTHE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE INTHE SOUTHERN STATES.ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER ANDINTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHAND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK.THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUNDID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICHYIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TOPUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where's the best pbp for the euro when the board goes down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is for DCA: 12z UKIE -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us ~38mm of snow it would appear 12z GGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us ~32mm of snow it would appear before a RN/SN mix with another 5mm or so after... total of ~40mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest model discussion from WPC:"...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILES SOUTH/EAST DESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVING ENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EAST COAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TO ONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST. THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN MEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND IS CORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUN OCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES. ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK. THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUN DID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH YIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1." Am I reading that right, that their belief is that the NAM solution was too fast and weak? I liked the result from the 12z, I know that is weenie logic, but it didn't strike me as either. Especially compared to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just to clarify, that would be 38 mm or approx 1.5" of LIQUID EQUIVALENT going into snow, not 1.5" of snowfall, correct? 12z UKIE -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us ~38mm of snow it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 snowing on the outer banks of NC if you check out the cams now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TOPUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1." --This could be a general rule of thumb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Utter newbie here so I did not get the humor. But with the models showing more warmth is this turning into a rain event for RIC area in VA? Some advice for you...go with climo and you will rarely be disappointed (i.e. lower totals with mixing issues S and E of the city). One run of one model showed rain over the metro. Nothing has trended at this point. NWS WPC still likes a modified Euro track. That would be a nice storm for us - probably our biggest since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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