Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS has just over 0.50" qpf in NYC. It's not generating the qpf shown on the NAM, but qpf forecasts are still challenging from this far out. The 4k NAM and 0z ECMWF show a lot more qpf, so the GFS may be an outlier when it comes to qpf. Just very strange to see a strong surface low with mid levels centers closed off in an ideal location to the east of you with a 6 hour qpf distribution of <0.10 in spots! Do you think this may have to do with the kicker preventing an expansive precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS will fully move towards all the other models on either its 00Z run or 06Z run tonight...its having its same issue again it had with the 2/5 storm last winter and one of the storms earlier this winter with the crazy low center issues...its usually been onto catching onto the other models right near the 48 hour mark all the times its done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie looks fine...much better than last night and good QPF with the 850's just getting into the city for a brief period of time. The GFS, interestingly, is showing mostly snow on the precipitation-type graphics on wxbell. Not sure on accuracy but the soundings aren't as terrible as I figured they would be either. The GFS cannot handle the complexity of this storm; shows a bomb but barely as much QPF as the other models. It won't get on board til the 00z's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The difference at H5 on the NAM & UKMET are staggering; I'm leaning towards UKMET for a deeper storm right now, UKMET might look really good, but that is scraming dry slot into C NJ if right UKMET: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS has just over 0.50" qpf in NYC. It's not generating the qpf shown on the NAM, but qpf forecasts are still challenging from this far out. The 4k NAM and 0z ECMWF show a lot more qpf, so the GFS may be an outlier when it comes to qpf. GFS has just over 0.50" qpf in NYC. It's not generating the qpf shown on the NAM, but qpf forecasts are still challenging from this far out. The 4k NAM and 0z ECMWF show a lot more qpf, so the GFS may be an outlier when it comes to qpf. Yes Don, add to GGEM to that as well as last few runs consistently showing over 1 inch QPF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Who's throwing out the euro? Nobody is throwing it out, but some are minimizing it because it doesn't give them the most snow. His point is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just very strange to see a strong surface low with mid levels centers closed off in an ideal location to the east of you with a 6 hour qpf distribution of <0.10 in spots! Do you think this may have to do with the kicker preventing an expansive precip shield? I highly, highly doubt precip would be that weak NW of a closing 500mb low center. It's also almost certainly too warm. It's playing catchup to the other guidance-hopefully its track is good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukmet has massive CCB over between 60-72hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The difference at H5 on the NAM & UKMET are staggering; I'm leaning towards UKMET for a deeper storm right now, UKMET might look really good, but that is scraming dry slot into C NJ if right UKMET: UKMET1.gif NAM: NAM1.gif Makes sense to me that the low will try to head close to due north for a time, maybe up to or just east of the Delmarva, and then fade ENE when the kicker catches up to it. Look at the 700mb low, if that is over or east of you, the dryslot is east of you. Hopefully we continue the trend of the mid level low centers east of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukmet has massive CCB over between 60-72hrs: That's a gorgeous CCB signature behind a bombing 970's class low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just very strange to see a strong surface low with mid levels centers closed off in an ideal location to the east of you with a 6 hour qpf distribution of <0.10 in spots! Do you think this may have to do with the kicker preventing an expansive precip shield? The kicker is slightly farther east on the GFS than on the NAM at that time, but there's no way it could have that much of a drying effect on the precip. The GFS should correct itself in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The difference at H5 on the NAM & UKMET are staggering; I'm leaning towards UKMET for a deeper storm right now, UKMET might look really good, but that is scraming dry slot into C NJ if right Strongly disagree. The Ukie evolution argues for a huge cold conveyor belt development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think if there is anything everyone can agree on is that the gfs is unrealistic based on climo. You see allot more qpf with that track and less mid level warming I am still worried about last minute western shifts as been the trend the euro should settle and the others shift slightly back west until they are in agreement tomorrow morning. I like to use climo and seasonal trends and that's had worked well this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Makes sense to me that the low will try to head close to due north for a time, maybe up to or just east of the Delmarva, and then fade ENE when the kicker catches up to it. Look at the 700mb low, if that is over or east of you, the dryslot is east of you. Hopefully we continue the trend of the mid level low centers east of the area. What caused the massive dryslot in the 1/25/2000 storm? I thought the low stayed off the coast? I guess the placement of the 700mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Who's throwing out the euro? I never said anyone threw it out... But there are many posts u can go back and read where the nam is being hugged tight now off 1 run... I'm just saying there's been a huge lack of mentioning the euros outputs on these model threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's a gorgeous CCB signature behind a bombing 970's class low. ukmet.gif This is beautiful. .5-.75" banding sitting over the NE Mid Atlantic to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just very strange to see a strong surface low with mid levels centers closed off in an ideal location to the east of you with a 6 hour qpf distribution of <0.10 in spots! Do you think this may have to do with the kicker preventing an expansive precip shield? It's tough to tell. The other models also have the kicker and they see better development of the qpf. I suspect that the GFS has continued to steadily improve, but it doesn't develop the storm to the extent that much of the other guidance does. If my hypothesis is correct, then we'll see the GFS continue to trend toward the other guidance in its next few runs. This storm should have a lot of moisture, so I'm not too concerned about the GFS's idea right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Strongly disagree. The Ukie evolution argues for a huge cold conveyor belt development. Yes, but there would def be a lull in the action before the ULL heads N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's a gorgeous CCB signature behind a bombing 970's class low. ukmet.gif When I first saw the 48 hour 500 MB , my first reaction , was its surface has to be really well inside obx . Corrected at 60 - and was at the mouth of the Delware , it bombs to the benchmark , nice CCB signal - 850`s would just collapse into the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I never said anyone threw it out... But there are many posts u can go back and read where the nam is being hugged tight now off 1 run... I'm just saying there's been a huge lack of mentioning the euros outputs on these model threads Well its hard not to get excited when a model shows 18-24" of snow but most have enough common sense not to latch onto it when its just one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The UKMET still has it snowing at 7AM on Friday. Talk about long duration. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The kicker really helped to push the whole system a bit further east despite it looking more inland initially. I have a feeling the Euro might show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When I first saw the 48 hour 500 MB , my first reaction , was its surface has to be really well inside obx . Corrected at 60 - and was at the mouth of the Delware , it bombs to the benchmark , nice CCB signal - 850`s would just collapse into the center The models are going to be too warm with the surface in this storm with this track because they think the winds will be ESE or E...the setup is classic for the ageostrophic flow becoming more NE or NNE with the positioning of that high and the deepening low...this was part of the reason the models busted on 1/22/87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes Don, add to GGEM to that as well as last few runs consistently showing over 1 inch QPF.. The GGEM is on board, too. I hadn't looked at the 12z run at the time I had posted. The run-to-run continuity with the NAM, GGEM, and ECWMF (through 0z on the ECMWF) has been good. One can probably have confidence in the general idea of the storm's track with some details still to be worked out. Overall, it does look like it will have a significant impact on our area and I suspect that the GFS will come around in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What caused the massive dryslot in the 1/25/2000 storm? I thought the low stayed off the coast? I guess the placement of the 700mb low The low wrapped up very quickly and far west over the Delmarva, pretty much, where it occluded. The low closed off aloft when it was still south of Charleston. Also the kicker was very aggressive and opened the 500mb low back up. This time, the kicker seems weaker and more separated from the storm. Most models also show an closed 500mb low all the way up to New England, which would assist in having a heavy CCB band overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is beautiful. .5-.75" banding sitting over the NE Mid Atlantic to New England. It almost looks like we get an assist from a second jet exit region crossing the Midatlantic Thursday night into early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm is going to have a dryslot from hell somewhere My bet is on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I never said anyone threw it out... But there are many posts u can go back and read where the nam is being hugged tight now off 1 run... I'm just saying there's been a huge lack of mentioning the euros outputs on these model threads It's not just one run of the NAM though...3 of the 4 past NAM runs have shown a similar track at or near the BM with a ton of QPF and temps cold enough for most of us. The Euro has been mentioned and is being taken into consideration but its next run doesn't come out until 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The ggem drives a 971 mb low into eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just very strange to see a strong surface low with mid levels centers closed off in an ideal location to the east of you with a 6 hour qpf distribution of <0.10 in spots! Do you think this may have to do with the kicker preventing an expansive precip shield? that is exactly what is happening, and I would not count out the possiblity yet of the kicker having an impact in the final outcome. We need the kicker to prevent a more inland track, so it is a give and take with the precip sheild. It is well sampled. lets see how the rest of the model runs today handle the LP. One upside is a colder solution means better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.