SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still snowing well into Thursday night although the moderate snow looks to shutoff right around the evening commute. There will be no evening commute for most of us with this taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the NAM/UKMET/GGEM blend would be best right now. the GFS just cant seem to get the idea of what a closed LP would do and also with that track being almost ideal Lol. Youre just throwing out the Euro? It's been the most consistent model in this storm. I take it because it shows you warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does everyone think about this analog, looks pretty good. #5 over the east at 48 hours. yanks you have an analog fetish that's a very good comparison at H5 I think however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does everyone think about this analog, looks pretty good. #5 over the east at 48 hours. I think those significant totals are far too inland even for the euros solution u agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol. Youre just throwing out the Euro? It's been the most consistent model in this storm. I take it because it shows you warm? im sorry meant to throw the EURO in there as well my bad. that was a haphazard response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Why would u favor the nam? Cause it shows what u want?... It hasn't had a consistent run yet, the nam has flip flopped from east west for 7 straight runs... I find it funny no one is in favor of the euro that's clearly had this storm for days without wavering lol No because the NAM has a higher resolution, it's more in line with what the other guidance is showing (at least in terms of QPF and dynamics), and the GFS has been pretty lost and out on its own with this storm all along. How could a bombing out closed low tracking near the BM generate such little precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Better at 60 , but still not great KNYC east UKMET still very tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol. Youre just throwing out the Euro? It's been the most consistent model in this storm. I take it because it shows you warm? In all fairness the ukmet keeps him warm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET still very tucked in. The surface comes off OBX and is east of the delmarva , looks better than last nite - mid atlantic guys say it crushed them , wana see next panel for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 im sorry meant to throw the EURO in there as well my bad. that was a haphazard response I know. Just joking around with you. I think this seems like a just inland jackpot to me. Good snows everywhere, but a nice hit just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A track tucked into the coast isn't going to be too bad for most of us as long as the dynamics are strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 See what ole canada has to say soon hopefully will right the ship.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No because the NAM has a higher resolution, it's more in line with what the other guidance is showing (at least in terms of QPF and dynamics), and the GFS has been pretty lost and out on its own with this storm all along. How could a bombing out closed low tracking near the BM generate such little precipitation? Were talking low placement... NAM hasn't had a single consecutive run in terms of low placement... Let's all be honest if the euro was showing a further east track for 3 days now everyone in here would be throwing the nam out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The TT's and steep mid-level lapse rates are hinting at thundersnow CCB potential on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A track tucked into the coast isn't going to be too bad for most of us as long as the dynamics are strong. a dynamic closed off LP would cover most if not all this areas sins yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1/22/87 was 8-12" of heavy wet snow..about an 8 hour event that was supposed to be rain on LI. 2nd biggest storm of the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm is going to have a dryslot from hell somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The surface comes off OBX and is east of the delmarva , looks better than last nite - mid atlantic guys say it crushed them , wana see next panel for us Well, GFS sucked north and west. Hoping the UKMET keeps us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm is going to have a dryslot from hell somewhere maybe SNE my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET is massive, probably mixing issues into NYC but I'd take it. Big storm for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie looks fine...much better than last night and good QPF with the 850's just getting into the city for a brief period of time. The GFS, interestingly, is showing mostly snow on the precipitation-type graphics on wxbell. Not sure on accuracy but the soundings aren't as terrible as I figured they would be either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Were talking low placement... NAM hasn't had a single consecutive run in terms of low placement... Let's all be honest if the euro was showing a further east track for 3 days now everyone in here would be throwing the nam out lol Who's throwing out the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKIE crosses the BM , much better than last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 are the psu ewall maps off? they show very little qpf GFS has just over 0.50" qpf in NYC. It's not generating the qpf shown on the NAM, but qpf forecasts are still challenging from this far out. The 4k NAM and 0z ECMWF show a lot more qpf, so the GFS may be an outlier when it comes to qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface at 60 that's not a bad look and would probably still dump on NYC/LI assuming it trends colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No other model is showing such a lack of QPF or dynamics and the gfs has basically been an outlier this entire time but the track looks really good and similar to other models. A faster closing off like Euro would have the CCB further SW than this run is showing. The GFS and NAM are still playing catch up to euro idea of faster close off. The trends today were important and we can fill in details tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm is going to have a dryslot from hell somewhere I know- that's been concerning me. Any idea on where that may set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie looks fine...much better than last night and good QPF with the 850's just getting into the city for a brief period of time. The GFS, interestingly, is showing mostly snow on the precipitation-type graphics on wxbell. Not sure on accuracy but the soundings aren't as terrible as I figured they would be either. the UKIE looks like it cuts down a good bit on mixing east of NYC as well if my eyes aren't deceiving me john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is what my take away is the NAM is a jackpot solution , the UKIE is much better than last nite , and the GFS track is great and except for it hour 54 panel where it loses the precip intensity , so far no major jog west or cave . Think we are tick better now than we were this AM , obv like everyone else , waitin on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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