ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol if GFS shifts from being an easterly outlier to westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Please keep questions about when a WSW will be issued, how will travel be affected, etc, in the other storm discussion thread. This should be model analysis only. Thanks. As for this run, it looks too warm due to the closing off mid level centers. If the mid level lows are east of you, it's almost certainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 988 low on the benchmark with snizzle/drizzle for everybody. seems legit! are the psu ewall maps off? they show very little qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems to be an awesome track, although snow maps for our area are showing 3-6". Based on the track, strength of the low and orientation of the banding, the precip types don't seen to be accurately portrayed here, correct? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 24 hours is a lot...there have been a few storms forecast for 24hrs but only lasted 12-16 hrs this year...It will be crippling no matter how long it lasts if its all snow... there have been 20- 24 hour events that lasted 8hours too. But anything 18 hours or greater is HUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I believe panel 54- with east winds , but at hour 60 - with NE winds and the Center to our East , those 850`s should collapse in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS finally made its move toward the Euro and UKMET closed low idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 don't take the GFS verbatim read my previous post. with a track like that and a closed LP no one should be mixing except for maybe twin forks of LI. this is 20 hr heavy wet snow bomb for the ENTIRE tri-state area Believe me we r on same page , Im just trying to verbalize what the warm biased GFS is saying . Ie : even as a worst case scenario we still hit double digits. A good position IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's no NAM but it's not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 are the psu ewall maps off? they show very little qpf About half inch qpf..down from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Believe me we r on same page , Im just trying to verbalize what the warm biased GFS is saying . Ie : even as a worst case scenario we still hit double digits. A good position IMO. yes this is CLASSIC track for NYC/LI to get some of the heaviest snowfall with minimal mixing taking into account the GFS bias. I expect the EURO to make another small jog south and east as well at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's no NAM but it's not that bad. With a lack of heavy/dynamic precipitation the mid levels can warm. So for many areas MMU south and east, a bunch of that QPF falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems to be an awesome track, although snow maps for our area are showing 3-6". Based on the track, strength of the low and orientation of the banding, the precip types don't seen to be accurately portrayed here, correct? Sent from my iPhone Correct. The GFS can't detect Dynamic Cooling and the WAA at the mid levels, so It's assuming that the storm will spit out low moisture. Which explains why the GFS is the warmest model out of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS shows a more expansive area of general precipitation rather than a narrow intense band like the NAM shows. I would favor the NAM in this setup, but it's become pretty clear that it's going to come down to nowcasting for the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 don't take the GFS verbatim read my previous post. with a track like that and a closed LP no one should be mixing except for maybe twin forks of LI. this is 20 hr heavy wet snow bomb for the ENTIRE tri-state area If you hang a SLP at AC , you will rain for a while look at precip rates at hour 54 - you warm , you go back at 60 - but Long Island is not all snow as per GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS shows a more expansive area of general precipitation rather than a narrow intense band like the NAM shows. I would favor the NAM in this setup, but it's become pretty clear that it's going to come down to nowcasting for the immediate coast. Ya that's most likely because of the GFS inferior resolution, as well as its troubles handling this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The gfs makes no sense to me whatsoever and it's been completely off the rocker for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Am I reading that map right the GFS is only showing .50 QPF for north jersey ? Seems a bit ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 66 snow finally starting to move out from west to east. Sub 980mb east of Cape Cod. There is no snow after 7pm (Hour 60) from City and points west. Snow goes to about 9pm in CT and central/eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Am I reading that map right the GFS is only showing .50 QPF for north jersey ? Seems a bit ridiculous. Yeah its right around .5" and warm so 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 John , agree 100 perc , the GFS keeps trying to pull a dual MAX , almost jumps KNYC refires at the BM , that why u see that buckele east in its QPF - if you lighten the precip you rain east of the river for 6 hours Hopefully its just missing the lift at 54 , the track is great , but need the forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you hang a SLP at AC , you will rain for a while look at precip rates at hour 54 - you warm , you go back at 60 - but Long Island is not all snow as per GFS looks like its a good bit east of AC off of SV paul from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS shows a more expansive area of general precipitation rather than a narrow intense band like the NAM shows. I would favor the NAM in this setup, but it's become pretty clear that it's going to come down to nowcasting for the immediate coast. Why would u favor the nam? Cause it shows what u want?... It hasn't had a consistent run yet, the nam has flip flopped from east west for 7 straight runs... I find it funny no one is in favor of the euro that's clearly had this storm for days without wavering lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks like its a good bit east of AC off of SV paul from what I can see No light precip easterlies , you easily flip on the GFS UKIE , looks inland at 48 down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does everyone think about this analog, looks pretty good. #5 over the east at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS has the low more or less around the benchmark, bombing away. The profiles it shows are very unrealistic. I wouldn't use the GFS at all until it can figure itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Why would u favor the nam? Cause it shows what u want?... It hasn't had a consistent run yet, the nam has flip flopped from east west for 7 straight runs... I find it funny no one is in favor of the euro that's clearly had this storm for days without wavering lol the NAM hasn't really wavered much I think. the EURO has been solid but starting last night it is correcting south and east looks like, it was the western most outlier. the NAM and EURO also seem to understand dynamic cooling and better lift with a closed off low better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah its right around .5" and warm so 3-6"? Little buzzkill but not believable when every other model is showing 12+ for that area with at least double the QPF.. That plus commen sense will tell u GFS is still out to lunch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No other model is showing such a lack of QPF or dynamics and the gfs has basically been an outlier this entire time but the track looks really good and similar to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Better at 60 , but still not great KNYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.