jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The eastern end of Long Island should be worried about mixing. This happens with strong noreasters. The RGEM just came in and shows very heavy snow for NYC with the mixing line really close to eastern LI. The kicker arriving in time should hopefully shove the low ENE after moving north up to a point. If the kicker arrives a little late, a lot of us will either mix and/or dryslot most likely as the N/NNE move from NC looks pretty likely. The trough will go neg tilt and not allow much easterly motion until the northern stream kicks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS coming in stronger, more amped shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GFS phases much faster than the 12z NAM. Already much stronger at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Center looks to pass over the Pamlico Sound or just inside OBX, with an apparent tilt to the NE in the future, not a bad track IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS is looking like some of the previous runs of the NAM which had a piece of PV phasing in. Big differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 42 light snow approaching the area. The low is near Charleston. This is going to be a mega hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 dont you mean North and West of both cities? Yes sorry about that. I meant NW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 More amped for sure than the 06z run. I suspect there will be panic in here shortly as the GFS is likely to have a warmer thermal profile than the NAM. I wouldn't put to much stock into it compared to the models which can better assess the dynamic cooling potential. Just a word of warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The eastern end of Long Island should be worried about mixing. This happens with strong noreasters. The RGEM just came in and shows very heavy snow for NYC with the mixing line really close to eastern LI.when you say eastern long island please specify the exact region.thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Closing off at H5 hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 when you say eastern long island please specify the exact region.thanks. think he meant twin forks metsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface low over OBX at 48 hour and stronger than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Digging the High on the RGEM, that's something that really could help us out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 at hour 48 this is almost a classic track for a heavy snowfall for PHL-BOS and also coastal regions as well. that's taken into account the GFS being too warm as well not being a hi-res model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Over OBX , not inside at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 think he meant twin forks metsfanOk thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Moderate snow hour 48 up to KSWF. Surface line is hanging over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 51 CCB hitting the area hard. The QPF field isn't nearly as sharp as what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warm layer between 925 and 850mb along the coast pushing to NYC at 54 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think Upton raises the flags and ups the totals late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 850mb low is closed off east of ACY. GFS looks too warm to the NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 54 the surface line gets 50 miles or so inland. 850's are still below freezing however from 95 N&W. Inland love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Warm layer between 925 and 850mb along the coast pushing to NYC at 54 hr not worried, as you said this model isn't too good at assessing the dynamic cooling like our hi-res models. important to note is the track is MUCH better for coastal areas contrary to what the GFS is showing folks, should be noticeably colder than that especially with a closed LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At hour 57 the entire area is still enveloped in the CCB which is sitting way down south into VA and running NE up 95 into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Getting down to 988mb now about 100 miles or south east of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still snowing well into Thursday night although the moderate snow looks to shutoff right around the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 66 snow finally starting to move out from west to east. Sub 980mb east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 988 low on the benchmark with snizzle/drizzle for everybody. seems legit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Translation after 6-8 inches we mix with some sleet in KNYC and points east? and then transition bk as it closes to our east? don't take the GFS verbatim read my previous post. with a track like that and a closed LP no one should be mixing except for maybe twin forks of LI. this is 20 hr heavy wet snow bomb for the ENTIRE tri-state area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like this storm will start Thursday morning and last through Friday morning. Close to 24 hours. 24 hours is a lot...there have been a few storms forecast for 24hrs but only lasted 12-16 hrs this year...It will be crippling no matter how long it lasts if its all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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