Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really, after the storm, temps from around 20 to 25...that could make this storm very 'problematic' in terms of cleanup/roads/travel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface winds look to top out in the 30-35MPH range a long the immediate coast and 20-30MPH inland. Not really blizzard warning criteria or anything close to it. We don't have the strong high to the north pressing down on the isobars and tightening the gradient. Also the deepest the storm is probably going to get is the low 980's after it's east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's in mm's right? Hundredths of an inch I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's in mm's right? No, that's in inches. So the yellow is 1.5"+. That's not a snow accumulating map. It's a QPF output which measures the water equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 if it's wet snow the wind would make things worse...I still have some snow left on tree limbs around my area... A lot of the snow around the city looks to fall with temps around 30-33, so it would be a heavy wet snow again. Not good for flat roofs and trees/power lines with stronger winds than the storm last Monday which had calmer winds. 18" possibly of waterlogged snow/ice on some of these roofs over the course of the last few storms may become a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You have precip for that map? I just wanted to focus on potential track and stronger H500 presentation than NAM since precip details are still outside the better range of the hi-res models. The important thing to watch for today is any easterly shift at all from the Euro and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 4k NAM precip type maps show all snow (or just about all snow) from the Nassau/Suffolk county border westward for the duration. Suffolk only flips to rain for about a 3-6 hour period as the center makes its closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Classic coma head look ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Damn, for you guys in interior Long Island and SE NJ that's showing 20" at 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Strip of 1 foot + from GA to Maine, when was the last time this happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is our classic 1-2 foot KU from NC to Maine that most of us have been hoping for. If you can thread the needle with a miller A things can become quite exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL, take a look at this mornings updated #13 and #14 analogs over the east respectfully at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 High Res Nam has over 1.50QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hundredths of an inch I believe I didn't realize, until I saw the precip panel, that NW locations, like Warren/Sussex, the Lehigh Valley and much of the Hudson Valley north of Rockland/Westchester, would "only" get 0.50-0.75" of precip if the NAM verified and even less N/W of there. Not a sharp cutoff, but less than I'm sure they'd like to see - of course not having mixing risks is always nice. I'm sure those folks are pulling for the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is coming in considerably more amped than its 00z run through 30 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 In total 9 out of the top 15 analogs were KU events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like this storm will start Thursday morning and last through Friday morning. Close to 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM has the surface low inland over NC at 45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Text Output numbers for the 12z NAM KMMU - 18.8" KLGA - 17.0" KSWF - 8.8" KHPN - 16.8" KEWR - 19.2" KISP - 10.4" (On 1.63" QPF) KJFK - 14.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I didn't realize, until I saw the precip panel, that NW locations, like Warren/Sussex, the Lehigh Valley and much of the Hudson Valley north of Rockland/Westchester, would "only" get 0.50-0.75" of precip if the NAM verified and even less N/W of there. Not a sharp cutoff, but less than I'm sure they'd like to see - of course not having mixing risks is always nice. I'm sure those folks are pulling for the Euro... We're pulling for everyone to get in on the fun, no fringe jobs either way! That's how we roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The eastern end of Long Island should be worried about mixing. This happens with strong noreasters. The RGEM just came in and shows very heavy snow for NYC with the mixing line really close to eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM shows DC and PHL mixing/turning to rain but very heavy snow NE of both cities EDIT : NW I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM shows DC and PHL mixing/turning to rain but very heavy snow NE of both cities How does that happen, wouldn't we turn over to rain to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEM at 12z still snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does that happen, wouldn't we turn over to rain to. I think he meant NW of the cities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM shows DC and PHL mixing/turning to rain but very heavy snow NE of both cities dont you mean North and West of both cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM shows DC and PHL mixing/turning to rain but very heavy snow NE of both cities Philly looks like snow on the maps I'm using. Dc is snow to a mix. NYC stays all snow through hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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