jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 700mb low passes just south of Islip. This is one of the best CCB/banding signals I have seen in a few years. Seriously-this would be almost Boxing Day like comma head band-not that intensity of course but the orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pressure gets down to 984mb about 100-150 miles east of Boston. Eastern New England will love this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM: 500mb low doesn't close off. But were underneath the best 500mb PVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys will love the 4k NAM. Heaviest banding of the storm is hour 48. Yellow/Orange Banding from almost DC to Nantucket Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 700mb low passes just south of Islip. This is one of the best CCB/banding signals I have seen in a few years. In a year when we've seen 3 8-12" storms in the NYC Metro, it is looking probable that we get a fourth ... and this one may be the biggest yet. As mentioned previously, classic track/evolution for deformation snows... those are the kind that just dump and dump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The surface freezing line on the 4K NAM stays east of JFK for the duration of the storm. Suffolk County has issues. Philly also stays below freezing as the surface line stays SE into SW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It will be interesting to see if the Euro slips 30 miles east today along the lines of the ARW which would be a track right down the middle of the 12z NAM and 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The surface freezing line on the 4K NAM stays east of JFK for the duration of the storm. Suffolk County has issues. Philly also stays below freezing as the surface line stays SE into SW NJ. even the coldest run I still mix in SW Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What was the total qpf after the storm moves on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Nam is a classic MECS, a good foot or more for many. Hopefully we can form a consensus by the end of today and the Euro and other western most models fall a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This covers pretty much the duration of the event. Find your location for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This covers pretty much the duration of the event. Find your location for yourself. wow! 1.5" for LI not bad, maybe 12"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 In a year when we've seen 3 8-12" storms in the NYC Metro, it is looking probable that we get a fourth ... and this one may be the biggest yet. As mentioned previously, classic track/evolution for deformation snows... those are the kind that just dump and dump... Tracking wise, this has been top 2 or 3 ever winter IMO. There has been some kind of storm to track nearly every week since Early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 even the coldest run I still mix in SW Suffolk The track is close to the coast for eastern Long Island. Even though you're above freezing at the surface you never get above 0 at the 850mb level so my guess is you would likely stay a very heavy wet snow unless their ends up being another warm layer somewhere that shows up on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It will be interesting to see if the Euro slips 30 miles east today along the lines of the ARW which would be a track right down the middle of the 12z NAM and 0Z Euro. f63.jpg You have precip for that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After further review this is close to the best case scenario areawide. The heavy stuff makes it far enough NW to keep inland folks happy and the track is far enough east to bring mostly snow to the coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The track is close to the coast for eastern Long Island. Even though you're above freezing at the surface you never get above 0 at the 850mb level so my guess is you would likely stay a very heavy wet snow unless their ends up being another warm layer somewhere that shows up on the soundings. okay great. im just not good at analyzing those maps so excuse my inexperience please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 even the coldest run I still mix in SW Suffolk Surface temps modestly above freezing doesn't necessarilly imply mixing. The rest of the column is cold. I think SW suffolk is all snow on the 12z Nam but surface could get up to 33 or so. With that deform band overhead we would most definitely see some significant dynamic cooling. Additionally we have a solid 4 -8" of snowpack which should help to slightly suppress surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Please refrain from few word long posts like "This run's awesome", etc. Keep discussion constructive, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Close up of total 12z NAM precip.. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface temps modestly above freezing doesn't necessarilly imply mixing. The rest of the column is cold. I think SW suffolk is all snow on the 12z Nam but surface could get up to 33 or so. With that CCB overhead we would most definitely see some significant dynamic cooling. Additionally we have a solid 4 -8" of snowpack which should help to slightly suppress surface temps. As long as winds stay NNE/NE, I doubt anyone warms enough above freezing at the surface for rain just based on the boundary layer (mid levels may be a different story). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any thoughts if wind will be higher enough to keep snow from accumulating on trees so we avoid tree limbs from falling? This will help avoid power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any thoughts if wind will be higher enough to keep snow from accumulating on trees so we avoid tee limbs from falling? This will help avoid power outages. if it's wet snow the wind would make things worse...I still have some snow left on tree limbs around my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When the surface is the only thing above freezing things become complicated. It comes down to how cold the mid-levels can stay. It's a fairly fine line between just a heavy wet snow and more of a rain/snow mix. The heavier dynamics however should work their magic. I wouldn't be too worried unless I lived on the immediate south facing shores. (Per the 12z NAM). If the Euro verifies then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 judging by the NAM this would roughly be a 16-20 hour event from start to finish, nice duration storm for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850`s Minus 4- 6 for a lot this as per NAM , Soundings should look good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Close up of total 12z NAM precip.. WOW That's in mm's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When the surface is the only thing above freezing things become complicated. It comes down to how cold the mid-levels can stay. It's a fairly fine line between just a heavy wet snow and more of a rain/snow mix. The heavier dynamics however should work its magic. I wouldn't be too worried unless I lived on the immediate south facing shores. (Per the 12z NAM). If the Euro verifies then all bets are off. by all bets are off you mean heavier accumulations and better dynamic cooling down to the coastal areas yank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 by all bets are off you mean heavier accumulations and better dynamic cooling down to the coastal areas yank? think he means more of a mix for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.