earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 700mb RH and vv's still show the best lift hanging overhead at 51 hours with the developing cold conveyor belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The real heavy QPF just makes it to the south shore and Central NJ beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The best lift is still overhead at 54 hours. The NAM develops the mid level centers in a textbook position for a CCB to mature from PHL northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 this run would put NYC and LI into the CCB for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 51 hours is, just as john said, about 20 miles, if that, further SE. still dumps most of the region, except for NW NJ, but they're used to getting shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm is certainly not in a hurry to move up the coast. At hour 54 we're still getting hammered area wide. Could be some dry slotting into SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great run. Further east and colder for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The real heavy QPF just makes it to the south shore and Central NJ beaches. The precipitation falling in the CCB, where the model is showing the best lift and dynamics, is falling from Philadelphia to NE NJ, NYC and Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow that's a cold run. Mother of god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well over 1" liquid as snow for EWR, NYC, PHL corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is headed for the benchmark. Sub 992mb low about 150 miles east of ACY. CCB love still back to far eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As soon as we get to 66-72 hours out, can someone post the total QPF for this run of the NAM? I'm intrigued as to what the totals would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, what a great run. Hopefully the other guidance trends similarly. The mid level centers close off in a perfect place for everybody. The tick SE might be real though, so the far NW areas might have to watch out for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well over 1" liquid as snow for EWR, NYC, PHL corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Ccb just dumps on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 When you talk about an ideal situation, this is what you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Only through hr 57 NYC is already over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Ccb just dumps on us Because the mid level centers close off southeast of ACY and then move northeast while the upper level low passes overhead. A textbook situation for the cold conveyor belt to develop and hang back to the southwest while the system moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm is certainly not in a hurry to move up the coast. At hour 54 we're still getting hammered area wide. Could be some dry slotting into SE NJ. Looks like a temporary capture off the Delmarva. Again, perfect spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 accumulated QPF for NYC-LI almost 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Look at the 700mb low closed off over ACY. Frontogenic/deformation banding from PHL to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Look at the 700mb low closed off over ACY. Frontogenic/deformation banding from PHL to NYC. as good looking of a comma head as you'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't believe this ever closes off at H5. Looks like it gets disrupted by the kicker if I'm analyzing things correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't believe this ever closes off at H5. Looks like it gets disrupted by the kicker if I'm analyzing things correctly. With the strength of the shortwave and dynamics involved, it doesn't really matter if the model shows a small closed contour or not at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Per the 4k NAM it should be snowing in NYC by midnight tomorrow night or very shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 700mb low passes just south of Islip. This is one of the best CCB/banding signals I have seen in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How much did the nam affect the N+W burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the snow shuts off sometime between 00z and 03z from SW to NE, although these things have a habit of shutting off faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 700mb low passes just south of Islip. This is one of the best CCB/banding signals I have seen in a few years. john if im not mistaken using the model the right way it would set up from PHL-NYC and when it gets to the BM it encompasses LI as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How much qpf for mid hudson valley on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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