PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For the coast the NAM and SREF are still there . The UKMET GGEM EURO , break us into 2 Thump - Rain - CCB I would like to grab one of those models back tonite by 0z tonite without losing the NAM And Lastly the GFS , in which I dont know where it really stands so can`t use it . Just away from the coast - you`re golden . Would lean towards the Non American models , but I can still see how KNYC can get to 12 here as the 850`s collapse towards the center . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Coming off OBX and to the mouth of the Delaware , i just don`t see the confluence to jump this east . I think its on the coast and was hoping to see the Euro come 25 - 50 mile east , it didn`t , kissed the coast Yeah ,this run closes off with 2 contours over NC so the initial motion is more northerly pulled back by the UL instead of slipping more NNE to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Crush job. wrf_2014021112_ref_arw_east.gif this is the best loop so far- very realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z The SREF looks pretty awesome. I would really expect the NAM to come west at 18z/00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ how does this look for a start? latest from the OPC thru the BM track looks like the beginning of something people many from Georgia to Maine will be talking about for some time... not saying it will be a winner for everyone's backyard (few are) but that corridor stands to see a very impressive storm and we're lucky enough we may be in it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For the coast the NAM and SREF are still there . The UKMET GGEM EURO , break us into 2 Thump - Rain - CCB I would like to grab one of those models back tonite by 0z tonite without losing the NAM And Lastly the GFS , in which I dont know where it really stands so can`t use it . Just away from the coast - you`re golden . Would lean towards the Non American models , but I can still see how KNYC can get to 12 here as the 850`s collapse towards the center . How far away from coast? I am about 20 to 25 away? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah ,this run closes off with 2 contours over NC so the initial motion is more northerly pulled back by the UL instead of slipping more NNE to NE. because of that the WCB cuts off from the CCB, the dynamics fade, and we warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How far away from coast? I am about 20 to 25 away? Thanks Not our storm Rossi , we snow - but we flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not our storm Rossi , we snow - but we flip I have to disagree. Even the warm solutions have a healthy amount of snow for us. If we have to deal with a dryslot and probably light rain for a while I'm OK with it. I believe you guys are in central coastal NJ? It may be more a problem for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Curious to see how Upton digests all of this mornings and afternoons model info. I think they will have to follow mt.holly and even binghamton and and issue watches at 4PM. Want to see what they do with Long Island and the battle ground area. Watches for Suffolk or just HWO based on confidence of reaching 6 inch plus there. Think they will also bump up accumulation maps significantly for the interior and leave it similar to how it is now for the coast/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro and ensembles continue to look really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Upton it out with their call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WINTER STORM WATCHES now posted for NYC Metro; Upton calling for 4-8 inches of snow with a change to rain for the 5 boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 000FXUS61 KOKX 112049AFDOKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY349 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREATHROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THESOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH ANDEAST THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE ACROSSTHE AREA THIS WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGHPRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLYTEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.&&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THEREGION DURING THIS TIME. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FORTHE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS CAN BE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS/ADVISORIESAS NECESSARY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE IN THEFORECAST INCREASES.HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DEPART WEDNESDAYEVENING AS LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TRACKS NORTH INTOTHE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OVERRUNNING PRECIP DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THELOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OFTHE CWA...AND THEN SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAYMORNING COMMUTE.THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN TERMSOF WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MODELSSTILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. 12Z ECMWF HAS A WARMER...WETTERSOLUTION. 12Z NAM IS COLDER...BUT HAS COME IN WITH MOREPRECIP...WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE IN THEMIDDLE...AND IS FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 12ZCMC ALSO FAVORS THE 12Z ECMWF...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST. AS ARESULT...STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL AS TO HOW THIS STORM WILLPLAY OUT...BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE COMING INTO PLACE.SHOULD THE ECMWF VERIFY...WE MAY BE TALKING FLOODING CONCERNS WITHWARMER TEMPS AND LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCHES. IF THENAM VERIFIES...WE COULD BE TALKING HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN INTOCOASTAL ZONES...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. IT ALL DEPENDS ONTHE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ONTHURSDAY.FOR NOW...LOOKING AT A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THURSDAYMORNING WITH A GOOD 4-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGHOUT...ANDLESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NW ZONES. SNOW MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TORAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN...AND THENPRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEPARTS ANDUPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TOREMAIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAYNIGHT...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 8-12 INCHES WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIORPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND 6-8 INCHES ACROSS COASTALCT...NYC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NJ. FOR COASTAL AREAS...SNOWWILL COME IN 2 BATCHES...A SLUG OF 4-6 INCHES THURSDAY MORNING ANDTHEN A SLUG OF 2-3 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 mt holly .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED SOUTH, WATCHES EXTENDED NORTH ANDADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES.WHILE THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD, THERE REMAINS A DISCONNECTBETWEEN THE U.S. MODELS AND ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS AS FOR TRACKAND A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WRF-NMMB AND THE OTHER MODELS WITH THERMALFIELDS. AS FAR AS TRACK GOES THE UKMET AND CAN GGEM MOVED TOWARDTHE ECMWF WHICH HAS REMAINED PRETTY STEADY THE LAST COUPLE OFSOUNDING RUNS. THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS IN SPITE OF THE SFC LOWLOCATION FARTHER OFFSHORE ARE SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS, BUTMAY BE A BY PRODUCT OF LOWER INTENSITY RATES, COULD BE RIGHT FORTHE WRONG REASON.THE ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS RUN AND PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS IS A BIGTIME DRY SLOT INTO OUR CWA. REGARDLESS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWINGA VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETIC THUMPING AT THE FRONT END ANDTHEN A CCB/DEFORMATION ZONE PHASE THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THEAFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THERMAL FIELDS WE ASK EVERYONE TOPLEASE FOLLOW UPDATES. THERE WERE FOUR ANALOGS THAT CAME CLOSESTTO THE CURRENT EVENT, BASICALLY A POORLY PLACED SFC HIGH, BUT ANINTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO:MARCH 7-8 1941, JANUARY 21-23 1987, FEB 10-11, 1994 AND THEINFAMOUS SURPRISE STORM OF JANUARY 24-25, 2000. THE 00Z GFS CIPSANALOGS HAVE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THESEANALOGS. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EDGING OF THE MODELS, WE DO HAVE THEAXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW NOW NORTHWEST OF I95. THE GOOD NEWS OFF THEFCST SOUNDINGS, THEY DO NOT LOOK ICY, AND MORE SLEETY, THUS WEHAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN.AS FOR THE PARTICULARS, TIMING SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SNOWOVERSPREADING OUR CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WARMER AIR COMING INFROM THE OCEAN AND ALOFT SHOULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEETAND RAIN NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.THEN ON THURSDAY, PTYPES FOLLOWED A ECMWF AND GFS COMPROMISE THECLOSEST. WHETHER EAST OR SQUARE DOWN THE GUT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGHPCPN INTENSITY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS,ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST BECAUSE OF THE DRY SLOT. EPV STILLGOES NEGATIVE BEFORE, THUNDERSNOW MIGHT OCCUR. BY THEN WE BELIEVEMOST PLACES THAT DO CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR RAIN WILL HAVE WARNINGCRITERIA SNOW REACHED. PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE STRONGDYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BYPASS THEM AND THEY WILL BEWAITING FOR THE CCB PCPN AT A STEADIER SNOW RATE. MARGINAL SFCTEMPS WILL BE COMPENSATED BY CROSS HAIR OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH ONTHU MORNING SO WE KEPT RATIOS CLOSE TO 10:1. IT WILL BE A WETSNOW, SO FURTHER POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. OUR HIGH WIND/WINDADVY CHECK LIST IS NOT GETTING US TO HEADLINE LEVELS NEAR THECOAST. WE BASED THIS OFF THE ECMWF.DEFORMATION BAND SNOWS SEEM TO SNOW THEMSELVES OUT FOR LACK OF ABETTER TERM THAN MOVE AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO ONTHURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA,A CHANGE OF RAIN BACK TO SNOW SHOULD SPREAD CLOSER TO THE COASTBEFORE PCPN ENDS OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 There is taint for a period of time but this is a blizzard as the CCB develops overhead 66-78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro 850 mb temp for klbm at 18z thurs is 0c, last nights it was +4c at the same time..It did trend colder at that level.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really think Upton comes in with an update that raises snow totals, especially where they currently have the 6-8 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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