jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the total QPF from the 12z GGEM. Includes all type of precipitation. That's just ridiculous. That can't be right, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The CCB looks beautiful with the Euro showing a second jet streak coming underneath Thursday night giving us twin exit regions in addition to the entrance to the NE. Where does this CCB end up as far as South and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the total QPF from the 12z GGEM. Includes all type of precipitation. That precip includes a second storm on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Okay, through hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Okay, through hr 84. Widespread 2"-3" QPF, thats why Im curious to see the accumulated snowfall map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Widespread 2"-3" QPF, thats why Im curious to see the accumulated snowfall map... Did we get total QPF from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 snow maps for Long Island and NYC on the euro anyone? From this thread I still don't know if its a raging blizzard or a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How far south in jersey does the ccb get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From this thread I still don't know if its a raging blizzard or a complete disaster.im still confused too. One says bad rain...other blizzard 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the H5 Low closes around the same Latitude as Ocean View, DE, then the EURO's solution will not verify. Any earlier than that and the EURO will be mostly correct. Most of the guidance have the storm a few hours faster and given the progressive nature of this pattern, it appears that the EURO solution less likely. A blend of the GGEM/UKMET/NAM seem very reasonable due to the progressive nature of this pattern. Also, there seems to be a weak HP (around 1020-1024 mB) appearing on every model, just to the east of the kicker around the Northern GLs. That will suppress the temps for the surface slightly, although it is not known if it's enough for a mainly snow event for NE NJ/NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ggem shows 1.5-2 inches(40-50mm)of precip falling as snow for nw jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM snow map. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWSI91 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://i1313.photobucket.com/albums/t547/dwsi91/c440515729eb70e622ca027cc8b3caeb_zpsa2c2d01c.jpg Total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So ,as currently modeled Both Nam and Euro come in at 12-15 in but via different routes & ideas Don`t like the NAM . EURO UKIE GGEM are in line for KNYC and points East . Snow on the front , rain in between CCB at the end. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From this thread I still don't know if its a raging blizzard or a complete disaster. Considering the spread from the intense/farthest west tracks of the ECMWF/UKMET duo and the underdeveloped eastward track of the GFS, a middle ground of sorts probably makes the most sense at this point. The big snowstorm scenario is certainly in play, but so is snow-to-rain-probably ending as snow scenario. IMO, Upton's map is quite sensible in the face of the current uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any way to get a zoomed in version of the GGEM snow amounts. Can't believe it's still over a foot of snow given the taint the GGEM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ggem shows 1.5-2 inches(40-50mm)of precip falling as snow for nw jersey as well as the lower to mid Hudson valley... it is an absolute bomb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the H5 Low closes around the same Latitude as Ocean View, DE, then the EURO's solution will not verify. Any earlier than that and the EURO will be mostly correct. Most of the guidance have the storm a few hours faster and given the progressive nature of this pattern, it appears that the EURO solution less likely. A blend of the GGEM/UKMET/NAM seem very reasonable due to the progressive nature of this pattern. Also, there seems to be a weak HP (around 1020-1024 mB) appearing on every model, just to the east of the kicker around the Northern GLs. That will suppress the temps for the surface slightly, although it is not known if it's enough for a mainly snow event for NE NJ/NYC/LI. Man the EURO has been very consistent for days now. I think its probably on with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 News stations around NYC seem to think it's gonna be snow then mostly rain. I live in Monmouth county nj. Any thoughts on what the models are showing this afternoon for this area? I'm hoping for a decent snow 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Considering the spread from the intense/farthest west tracks of the ECMWF/UKMET duo and the underdeveloped eastward track of the GFS, a middle ground of sorts probably makes the most sense at this point. The big snowstorm scenario is certainly in play, but so is snow-to-rain-probably ending as snow scenario. IMO, Upton's map is quite sensible in the face of the current uncertainty. Don, Is it possible to give approximate snow amounts for nj/ny based on each model in inches. This will help everyone. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Considering the spread from the intense/farthest west tracks of the ECMWF/UKMET duo and the underdeveloped eastward track of the GFS, a middle ground of sorts probably makes the most sense at this point. The big snowstorm scenario is certainly in play, but so is snow-to-rain-probably ending as snow scenario. IMO, Upton's map is quite sensible in the face of the current uncertainty. I just meant the EURO verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ how does this look for a start? latest from the OPC thru the BM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://i1313.photobucket.com/albums/t547/dwsi91/c440515729eb70e622ca027cc8b3caeb_zpsa2c2d01c.jpg Total snow It does not open for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 News stations around NYC seem to think it's gonna be snow then mostly rain. I live in Monmouth county nj. Any thoughts on what the models are showing this afternoon for this area? I'm hoping for a decent snow 8-12" I'd say that's a pretty good initial guess around the city and then NE/SW from there. I-287 west to the Delaware River, maybe including the Poconos have the best shot at 12+, probably 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWSI91 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem total rain http://i1313.photobucket.com/albums/t547/dwsi91/7f3da1e91688ae1bc5188d29e4db7cc6_zps33318d86.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just meant the EURO verbatim I see. I thought you were talking in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is still 40 hours out...remeber that mondays storm was modeled warmer than it ended up in this time frame.The nam actually had the best handle on temps once it locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It does not open for me. Basically a swath from Philly to Poughkeepsie is 40-50mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snowgoose's point about the wind direction and how it applies to the models can't be stressed enough. Models are seeing ESE winds when in reality they are more to the NNE, NE which is why the models are a bit warmer than we would normally expect. Of course if the low tracks too far west, then this logic obviously won't apply until the low starts moving to the ENE away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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