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12z Models 2/11/2014 | Potential Major Coastal Storm


earthlight

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If the H5 Low closes around the same Latitude as Ocean View, DE, then the EURO's solution will not verify. Any earlier than that and the EURO will be mostly correct. Most of the guidance have the storm a few hours faster and given the progressive nature of this pattern, it appears that the EURO solution less likely. A blend of the GGEM/UKMET/NAM seem very reasonable due to the progressive nature of this pattern. Also, there seems to be a weak HP (around 1020-1024 mB) appearing on every model, just to the east of the kicker around the Northern GLs. That will suppress the temps for the surface slightly, although it is not known if it's enough for a mainly snow event for NE NJ/NYC/LI. 

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So ,as currently modeled Both Nam and Euro come in at 12-15 in but via different routes & ideas

Don`t like the NAM .   EURO  UKIE GGEM  are  in line for KNYC and points  East . Snow on the front , rain in between  CCB at the end. . 

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From this thread I still don't know if its a raging blizzard or a complete disaster.

Considering the spread from the intense/farthest west tracks of the ECMWF/UKMET duo and the underdeveloped eastward track of the GFS, a middle ground of sorts probably makes the most sense at this point. The big snowstorm scenario is certainly in play, but so is snow-to-rain-probably ending as snow scenario. IMO, Upton's map is quite sensible in the face of the current uncertainty.

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If the H5 Low closes around the same Latitude as Ocean View, DE, then the EURO's solution will not verify. Any earlier than that and the EURO will be mostly correct. Most of the guidance have the storm a few hours faster and given the progressive nature of this pattern, it appears that the EURO solution less likely. A blend of the GGEM/UKMET/NAM seem very reasonable due to the progressive nature of this pattern. Also, there seems to be a weak HP (around 1020-1024 mB) appearing on every model, just to the east of the kicker around the Northern GLs. That will suppress the temps for the surface slightly, although it is not known if it's enough for a mainly snow event for NE NJ/NYC/LI. 

 

Man the EURO has been very consistent for days now.  I think its probably on with this storm. 

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Considering the spread from the intense/farthest west tracks of the ECMWF/UKMET duo and the underdeveloped eastward track of the GFS, a middle ground of sorts probably makes the most sense at this point. The big snowstorm scenario is certainly in play, but so is snow-to-rain-probably ending as snow scenario. IMO, Upton's map is quite sensible in the face of the current uncertainty.

Don,

Is it possible to give approximate snow amounts for nj/ny based on each model in inches.

This will help everyone.

Thanks

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Considering the spread from the intense/farthest west tracks of the ECMWF/UKMET duo and the underdeveloped eastward track of the GFS, a middle ground of sorts probably makes the most sense at this point. The big snowstorm scenario is certainly in play, but so is snow-to-rain-probably ending as snow scenario. IMO, Upton's map is quite sensible in the face of the current uncertainty.

 

I just meant the EURO verbatim

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News stations around NYC seem to think it's gonna be snow then mostly rain. I live in Monmouth county nj. Any thoughts on what the models are showing this afternoon for this area? I'm hoping for a decent snow 8-12"

I'd say that's a pretty good initial guess around the city and then NE/SW from there. I-287 west to the Delaware River, maybe including the Poconos have the best shot at 12+, probably 12-18".

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Snowgoose's point about the wind direction and how it applies to the models can't be stressed enough. Models are seeing ESE winds when in reality they are more to the NNE, NE which is why the models are a bit warmer than we would normally expect. Of course if the low tracks too far west, then this logic obviously won't apply until the low starts moving to the ENE away from the coast. 

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