JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There is taint for a period of time but this is a blizzard as the CCB develops overhead 66-78 hours. Agreed, hour 54 looks toasty, but maybe in reality it is not much warmer then 00z as I had stated. It's possible that in between frames on 00z that warm punch was still there but just not at the exact time of any 6 hr increment. That warm punch is pretty nasty HOWEVER, entirely possible that some areas still snow with that warm punch due to raging dynamics, hard for me to bet on rain with that kind of WAA/Theta-E advection occurring with such strong lift/dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 500mb is classically closed and takes a perfect track for epic back-end CCB snows. This may turn out to be the most interesting part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really jealous of that back-end CCB snow band that all of you cash in on. Hopefully the NAM/GFS lock onto the foreign model track later today, because this split it rather annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There is taint for a period of time but this is a blizzard as the CCB develops overhead 66-78 hours. Strong enough winds to say blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is any other model showing the heavy snow that late? Thursday night into friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Hi-res Euro maps show 986mb low tucks into Chesapeake Bay between 54-60hrs. Before tracking ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 500mb is classically closed and takes a perfect track for epic back-end CCB snows. This may turn out to be the most interesting part of the storm. Indeed, there is going to be a period where many are saying "storm cancel" and "bust" UNTIL that CCB develops and rips for a good 12+ hours. Looks like we may get classic front end thump as WAA begins to pull over the departing dome of cold air, as coastal passes our latitude it's very possible we dry/slot and go to taint/light rain (though this is even in doubt because looking at hour 54-60 on euro screams to me theta-e advection occurring in sync with amazing lift as moist ocean air begins to pull over a NErly flow so I highly doubt that even if it is as warm as euro is showing that some areas just inland remain ripping snow), then the CCB develops and all hell breaks loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We snow hr 48 - 54 - 850`s torch at hour 60 - but we slot 850`s collapse at hour 66 as CCB begins jan 2011 like The LLJ is really impressive for the CCB Thursday night with 55-65 kt at 850 on sw flank into early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow what an incredible backend dump for NW NJ !!! Wow. Doesn't seem like a huge hit at the end though for NYC/NENJ, though as it is focused well NW into NWNJ and upstate ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 incorrect. PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILES SOUTH/EAST can you please explain what this means? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If we torch like this, hopefully we keep the 500mb closed low so that the wraparound can work out. If the low opens up, it won't be as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to the EURO how far north does the warming occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is very similar to the OP. Again the GFS ensembles are under dispersive... meaning they don't capture the true probability distribution function (PDF) of possible solutions like the ECMWF which had 50 members and does a much better job of giving some some assessment of the forecasting uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The LLJ is really impressive for the CCB Thursday night with 55-65 kt at 850 on sw flank into early Friday. I can see 6 on the front end at KNYC , then at 60 , there seems to be about .02 of rain - so it snizzles , then like last Feb and Jan 2011 , Many will get 6 to 8 plus on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can see 6 on the front end at KNYC , then at 60 , there seems to be about .02 of rain - so it snizzles , then like last Feb and Jan 2011 , Many will get 6 to 8 plus on the back end Sounds great to me-sign me up. The CCB signal on the back end of the storm looks amazing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People seem to be hugging each model a bit too much as it comes out and then hugging the next one and so forth. Euro suggests a ridiculous CCB but right now every model is handling it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 this run is almost 6 hours slower than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to the EURO how far north does the warming occur? I believe Rockland county southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can see 6 on the front end at KNYC , then at 60 , there seems to be about .02 of rain - so it snizzles , then like last Feb and Jan 2011 , Many will get 6 to 8 plus on the back end So ,as currently modeled Both Nam and Euro come in at 12-15 in but via different routes & ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILESSOUTH/EAST can you please explain what this means? thank you Thought you were saying something about 12Z. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the 12z ECMWF Ens hold serve, then I'll definitely be expecting a shift from the US models today. The CMC/UKMET/ECMWF is a deadly combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People seem to be hugging each model a bit too much as it comes out and then hugging the next one and so forth. Euro suggests a ridiculous CCB but right now every model is handling it differently. GGEM has the same ridiculous CCB as the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can see 6 on the front end at KNYC , then at 60 , there seems to be about .02 of rain - so it snizzles , then like last Feb and Jan 2011 , Many will get 6 to 8 plus on the back end Just like Jan of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the 12z ECMWF Ens hold serve, then I'll definitely be expecting a shift from the US models today. The CMC/UKMET/ECMWF is a deadly combo. Agreed like I said before euro has been non stop consistent...I'll ride the euro till the events over and I'm proven wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 snow maps for Long Island and NYC on the euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hasnt the NAM had a ridiculous CCB just further east? That would lead me to believe at least that part of the storm is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just like Jan of 2011 The difference is at 48 - the other Guidance jumps the low East the Euro takes it N , so the center touches AC . It`s ensembles have been great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Things still feel like an eternity as there's nearly 2 days before things get started and things can still shift around. I'm still hoping the globals shift a bit further east tonight but I fear the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can see 6 on the front end at KNYC , then at 60 , there seems to be about .02 of rain - so it snizzles , then like last Feb and Jan 2011 , Many will get 6 to 8 plus on the back end The CCB looks beautiful with the Euro showing a second jet streak coming underneath Thursday night giving us twin exit regions in addition to the entrance to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the total QPF from the 12z GGEM. Includes all type of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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