jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 20 mile tick east would save folks like me, Red, JM and Lbsurf freak and be a negligible difference for folks in your area I believe. We get pummeled on every model and maybe on even the very likely overdone GGEM go over to some light rain or a dryslot for a time. I think we're good for at least 6"+ and maybe 8-10"+. We're very much on track even if we mix or rain briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hpc 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ================================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ================================================== ...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILES SOUTH/EAST DESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVING ENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EAST COAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TO ONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST. THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN MEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND IS CORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUN OCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES. ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK. THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUN DID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH YIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope we all get hammered. The Euro is probably going to come a tad east to better align with its ensembles from last night. I'll be doing the PBP shortly. Please try and keep the general comments to a minimum to make it easier on the server while the run is coming out. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it ticked east from its previous runs at 0z and ive been hearing another S&E shift of 20-40 miles may be likely as well. we will see at 1 Where are you hearing this? Just following this from afar as I am not involved in this storm, but I don't know how we can possibly know this before the run, and especially call it "likely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM might be a bit too extreme and honestly we are about out to the point where the RGEM takes over as the wheelhouse model in short term analysis around 48 to 54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope we all get hammered. The Euro is probably going to come a tad east to better align with its ensembles from last night. I'll be doing the PBP shortly. Please try and keep the general comments to a minimum to make it easier on the server while the run is coming out. Thanks in advance.BTW, do you use Wxbell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So uptown is pretty much saying the sfc low will be strong and east. Good I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where are you hearing this? Just following this from afar as I am not involved in this storm, but I don't know how we can possibly know this before the run, and especially call it "likely." Look up "wishcasting" in the AMS Glossary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GGEM still gives NYC 30mm of liquid. I don't know what the complaining was about. That's about a foot + of snow before the possible changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So uptown is pretty much saying the sfc low will be strong and east. Good I'll take it incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 24 the low is east of New Orleans. Looking very similar to 00z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where are you hearing this? Just following this from afar as I am not involved in this storm, but I don't know how we can possibly know this before the run, and especially call it "likely." heard it in an excerpt from a met in the NE subforum. referencing to a HPC discussion. and no it was not a wishcast post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Meteocentre meteograms and maps look a lot colder for the UKIE than the Plymouth Soundings show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 30 energy starting to dive in. Low south of the Western FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 does not lack moisture that's for sure. I expect to see uptick in QPF also as we draw closer to the event as well thats a vort map my friend not qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 thats a vort map my friend not qpf know that was just stating its going to be loaded with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 54 hr Euro R/S line along Northern State Parkway WSW south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 36 low is over northern FL or extreme southern GA. Closed off at H5 Hour 42 Low near Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 54 tucked right into the VA coast. Not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ECMWF looks pretty warm for you folks. Maybe even a bit west of the 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sub 988mb low hour 60 almost inland over Atlantic City. BL Warm starting hour 60. Precip extending back to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Update to #282 the Cobb Snow Method for the GFS @12z .55" liquid and still NO SNOW measureable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty amazing if you take uptons forecast ( i am no way bashing mad respect haha) I could have the same amount from this storm 2" as Sunday night "2. Based on all guidance, climo and patterns I give that less then .01 of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 984mb inside the benchmark. Tremendous wrap around snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ECMWF looks pretty warm for you folks. Maybe even a bit west of the 00z... I don't see it being any further west then 00z (if it is than it is negligible) but it is MUCH warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snowing well into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is coming in a bit west through hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There is taint for a period of time but this is a blizzard as the CCB develops overhead 66-78 hours. Sensing a theme here with the front end thump to taint and then potentially major wraparound snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow doesn't wrap up until sometime after 12z. QPF totals are well over an inch for all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We snow hr 48 - 54 - 850`s torch at hour 60 - but we slot 850`s collapse at hour 66 as CCB begins jan 2011 like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.