IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z Canadian is a massive blizzard for Northern New Jersey with 15-18 inches. 971 mb low You're a little late to the party my friend lol. Verbatim your numbers are low for NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA looks like the UKMET for the most part FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Rearing its ugly head as #15 today on the analogs. To be fair I don't think it matches up well but it made the list I don't see that as even being close other than maybe the setup. Snowfall amounts should be impressive well down into the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 crazy ccb for PHL-NYC on the GGEM. wow. I'd take mixing issues to see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 crazy ccb for PHL-NYC on the GGEM. wow. I'd take mixing issues to see this best part is as that CCB collapses towards the coast it would be a Christmas 2002 redux with insane snowfall rates for 6+ hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z Canadian is a massive blizzard for Northern New Jersey with 15-18 inches. 971 mb low centered near the eastern end of Long Island at 6z Friday, 976 mb just off Asbury Park at 0z Friday Wonder how far the sustained winds will make it inland ? Also possible coastal flooding, beach erosion etc. If this model verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 seems rather low no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA looks like the UKMET for the most part FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 got later frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 crazy ccb for PHL-NYC on the GGEM. wow. I'd take mixing issues to see this You got to be kidding me? Is that widespread 2"-4" QPF??? Even if 0.5"-1.0" is lost to sleet/ice/rain it is still 15"+ inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew C. Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What time does the 12Z Canadian start the meaningful precipitation in NYC? From what I can tell, the 12Z NAM starts light snow in the midnight-3:00 AM Thursday, with heavier snow arriving around 7:00 AM and the 12Z GFS is about 3-4 hours later than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 seems rather low no? They could amp it up with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 got later frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 seems rather low no? Not if Phil and the Euro are correct - I'm certain NWS is waiting on the 12Z Euro before pulling the trigger on further watches north of 195 in NJ, 78 in PA, and for NYC Metro and beyond in NY/CT/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 best part is as that CCB collapses towards the coast it would be a Christmas 2002 redux with insane snowfall rates for 6+ hours! Hard to believe that it's mixing on that frame. The 540 line is over Eastern LI and the 850 0C line is over the tip the LI. There is no way that will be mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA is pretty much the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 does not lack moisture that's for sure. I expect to see uptick in QPF also as we draw closer to the event as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone have the GGEM accumulated snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I expect those numbers to be upped substantially after the EURO run this afternoon If the euro shows a lot of snow that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the euro shows a lot of snow that is it ticked east from its previous runs at 0z and ive been hearing another S&E shift of 20-40 miles may be likely as well. we will see at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone have the GGEM accumulated snowfall maps? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it ticked east from its previous runs at 0z and ive been hearing another S&E shift of 20-40 miles may be likely as well. we will see at 1 If the track of the Euro was much further east it would screw over a lot of inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 seems rather low no? much easier to adjust up... not a bad starting point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the track of the Euro was much further east it would screw over a lot of inland folks. I don't think you have to worry about that, either way you're getting a lot of snow. The only question is does the coastal folks switch over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the track of the Euro was much further east it would screw over a lot of inland folks. Dude this is a southern branch feature that`s going to crush you and everyone east of the APPS , pls stop , unless it moves 100 miles youre golden 25 miles is a non event . You`re in the kill zone , just enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the track of the Euro was much further east it would screw over a lot of inland folks. I doubt it goes much further east, and heavy accumulated snow goes back to almost I-81 on that run. I wouldn't worry much about a SE shift unless west of the Delaware River and north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the track of the Euro was much further east it would screw over a lot of inland folks. well that kind of shift wouldn't be major and I wouldn't expect more than that seeing how the EURO has been the most consistent thus far. most important key factor to me is temp profile in accordance with the closed off H5 LP and how that will keep changeovers at bay even for the coast on the 12z EURO run yank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dude this is a southern branch feature that`s going to crush you and everyone east of the APPS , pls stop , unless it moves 100 miles youre golden 25 miles is a non event . You`re in the kill zone , just enjoy it. thank you. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the track of the Euro was much further east it would screw over a lot of inland folks. 20 mile tick east would save folks like me, Red, JM and Lbsurf freak and be a negligible difference for folks in your area I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 20 mile tick east would save folks like me, Red, JM and Lbsurf freak and be a negligible difference for folks in your area I believe. Exactly. Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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