Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET 700mb VVs indicate nice dump at the front end. And then bigger dump with the CCB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The ggem drives a 971 mb low into eastern LI And still manages to change many people back over to snow with the CCB that develops. Very warm and tucked in for a time though, after a thump of heavy snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GGEM in 5 hour increments starting at hour 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where did the March 1993 Superstorm pass? through NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 22 hour event from start to finish on the 12z GGEM. Mostly snow NW of NYC. Some mixing issues at the coast for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm starting to think that some areas are going to approach 2 feet. If you toss the GFS the consensus is for a very dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where did the March 1993 Superstorm pass? through NYC? Basically yes..just west but because snow broke out while the low was still over Georgia everyone had a front end dump before sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 22 hour event from start to finish on the 12z GGEM. Mostly snow NW of NYC. Some mixing issues at the coast for a time. It wouldn't be a storm unless the GGEM had a run like that. Verbatim it would be horrible for much of SNE. Absolutely rampaging warmth from 495 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 22 hour event from start to finish on the 12z GGEM. Mostly snow NW of NYC. Some mixing issues at the coast for a time. On a few of the panels the rain/mix area extends further N&W than I would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 22 hour event from start to finish on the 12z GGEM. Mostly snow NW of NYC. Some mixing issues at the coast for a time. Takes a weird track looks S/E of most guidance off of the Delmarva....but then goes due north (maybe even a hint W of north) to just off the NJ shore, then finally goes N/E. Even so, maybe only a 2-4 hour period of mix/rain from the Parkway West in N NJ though...and probably a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 22 hour event from start to finish on the 12z GGEM. Mostly snow NW of NYC. Some mixing issues at the coast for a time. This maps seem to show a lot of mixing even back to nwnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A partial summary for LGA: using Cobb Method. NAM 17hrs. 1.20" liquid and a whopping 17" Snow. GFS not avail. @12z prev. runs have been incoherent showing about .60" liquid and never more than 5" of snow in an alternating Sn-Rn pattern, or just no snow at all. SREF Plume 22hrs. 1.05" liquid but just 5" Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM is warm KNYC east about 9 hours of rain South and East . Its the most western of the Guidance . Curious to see if the Euro follows the UKIE or GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Takes a weird track looks S/E of most guidance off of the Delmarva....but then goes due north (maybe even a hint W of north) to just off the NJ shore, then finally goes N/E. Even so, maybe only a 2-4 hour period of mix/rain from the Parkway West in N NJ though...and probably a lot of snow. That due north jog follows the slightly warmer water temps just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That due north jog follows the slightly warmer water temps just offshore It has more to do with the synoptics than thermal gradients, which I would think have less pronounced effects on the track of a mature storm than a developing one. With a steeply negative trough and not a ton of confluence, the storm will surge poleward until the infamous 'kicker' starts sending it ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nobody is throwing it out, but some are minimizing it because it doesn't give them the most snow. His point is valid. Here is a post I made earlier in the southeast thread: This... this is looking more and more like a KU snowstorm. Euro ensembles are in very good agreement on this outcome now. I'm going to get on my high horse for a brief moment, but I think the GFS and NAM are doing a horrible job with this event (wednesday and beyond). When I look at models and try to get an assessment of what is going to happen, the first thing I do is look at the ECMWF and its ensembles. When the ECMWF is showing an overamplified solution relative to the rest of the guidance, I stand back and try to understand if its catching on to something the other models are missing or if its an outlier that should be thrown out. The easiest way to figure this is out is to look at the its ensemble mean. Guess what, the ECMWF ensemble mean is pretty much exactly what the deterministic solution is. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is superior to the GFS Ensembles because it contains 50 members and does a more realistic job of depicting the probability PDF of any one particular solution, preventing it from being under dispersive like the GFS ensembles are in most cases. So when there is strong agreement within 72 hours from the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensembles, I place that in the highest regard over all other guidance. Thats what we are seeing currently. The GFS and NAM are completely on the edge of the ECMWF ensemble PDF and therefore should both be considered outliers in this case. Its a little startling to see this must dispersion between the model guidance within 72 hours, but for tricky phasing cases like this, its the norm. While taking a mean might sound like the best course of action, in reality when there is this much spread, you are taking a good forecast and merging with a bad forecast to create a mediocre forecast. I think it would be a better idea to place greater emphasis on the ECMWF solution given the strong support it has by its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That due north jog follows the slightly warmer water temps just offshore It's a track that doesn't seem to make sense. It appears to be just east of the Delmarva for a time and then tracks due north. To me it should at least be headed somewhat east. GGEM hasn't been that consistent though so I wouldn't be too worried. Yesterday at 12z it was among the eastern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie looks fine...much better than last night and good QPF with the 850's just getting into the city for a brief period of time. The GFS, interestingly, is showing mostly snow on the precipitation-type graphics on wxbell. Not sure on accuracy but the soundings aren't as terrible as I figured they would be either. based on this map i would think we have issues, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's still a lot of model noise that the Euro can hopefully help clean up. The GGEM seems too warm given such explosive dynamics even with the low just offshore, but the low itself is likely way too powerful (most are in the mid 980s) which might explain the northward jog off the Delmarva compared to the other models, when it should realistically track further to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is very similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 based on this map i would think we have issues, no? 32F-34F at the SFC for the I-95. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 32F-34F at the SFC for the I-95. Not bad. Thats the 850 level which is warm for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is very similar to the OP. How much precip? GFS is really struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 even with mixing with the heavy front end dump, some mixing and then into that CCB anybody on LI save for twin forks should have no problem getting 12" maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thats the 850 level which is warm for the city. Whoops. Sorry. I need more sleep. Although, still not bad. It should be colder at the surface, due to the predominate NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most of the really big ones for this area have had a period of mixing along the immediate coast. Even PDII which was about as cold as you'll ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most of the really big ones for this area have had a period of mixing along the immediate coast. Even PDII which was about as cold as you'll ever see. very true and wouldn't still be shocked if some places in western LI, Suffolk/nassua border with this storm still do great as the CCB would be hanging over us for a long time with some prolific rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Phil Thanks for reposting your thoughts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Rearing its ugly head as #15 today on the analogs. To be fair I don't think it matches up well but it made the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The models are going to be too warm with the surface in this storm with this track because they think the winds will be ESE or E...the setup is classic for the ageostrophic flow becoming more NE or NNE with the positioning of that high and the deepening low...this was part of the reason the models busted on 1/22/87. I had to bump this because this is spot on and agree 150% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.