earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 READ THIS: This thread is for model analysis and constructive discussion. Posts that are off topic will be deleted and repeat offenders suspended. Have fun, good luck and wishing you all multiple feet of snow. SREF 8:15 NAM: 9:00 GFS: 10:30 RGEM: 10:45 CMC: 11:30/12:00 ECMWF: 12:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREFS are looking good! 1 inch QPF line slowly trending north west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_069_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=301&scrolly=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The SREF track directly over the 40/70. Thermal profiles look like the Euro/GFS/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:22 PM, jjvesnow said: SREFS are looking good! 1 inch QPF line slowly trending north west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_069_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=301&scrolly=84 Curious as to where it has the slp and spread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The SREF track directly over the 40/70. Thermal profiles look like the Euro/GFS/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 out to 18hrs. on 9z SREF on SV. how are you guys getting them so quick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Should we use the higher resolution nam for thermal profiles? Or is that model still playing catch up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:24 PM, REDMK6GLI said: out to 18hrs. on 9z SREF on SV. how are you guys getting them so quick? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still a fair amount of spread to the west of the slp I see. Looks like it ticked west a hair as well no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:23 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Curious as to where it has the slp and spread.... Still leaning west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_063_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:29 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Still a fair amount of spread to the west of the slp I see. Looms like it ticked west a hair as well no? The spread lessened pretty considerably from the 03z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:30 PM, earthlight said: The spread lessened pretty considerably from the 03z run. I did not see 3z so I thank you for this info as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:29 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Still a fair amount of spread to the west of the slp I see. Looms like it ticked west a hair as well no? SREFS have been slowly trending north west with the bigger QPF. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The good thing to see is that there isn't any spread west of the 0c line at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:32 PM, earthlight said: The good thing to see is that there isn't any spread west of the 0c line at 850mb. Still showing a good amount less QPF north and west. Wonder if the NAM and GFS will continue to show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:35 PM, jjvesnow said: Still showing a good amount less QPF north and west. Wonder if the NAM and GFS will continue to show this. That would be the slp feeling the effects of the kicker which is getting better sampled today finally. Still that tick west with the 1" line was refreshing to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:35 PM, jjvesnow said: Still showing a good amount less QPF north and west. Wonder if the NAM and GFS will continue to show this. It has 0.75" QPF back to Sussex Co NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:32 PM, earthlight said: The good thing to see is that there isn't any spread west of the 0c line at 850mb. where does the 850 line stop. For some reason I can't load the srefs on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:38 PM, Metsfan said: where does the 850 line stop. For some reason I can't load the srefs on my phone. Doesn't quite get to NYC. Runs from Trenton to NE Queens..through Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:30 PM, earthlight said: The spread lessened pretty considerably from the 03z run. Absolutely. Love this look. It's not nearly as pointed towards a NJ coast hugger, but still has spread to the northwest. I wouldn't actually mind seeing the SREF surface verify a little further northwest than the mean, which is what the spread indicates now. Love it for Central NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:40 PM, earthlight said: Doesn't quite get to NYC. Runs from Trenton to NE Queens..through Staten Island. North of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:42 PM, Metsfan said: North of LI? It pushes to the north shore after significant precipitation and then comes back southeast as the cold conveyor belt gets going. Similar to the globals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:43 PM, earthlight said: It pushes to the north shore after significant precipitation and then comes back southeast as the cold conveyor belt gets going. Similar to the globals..How much precipitation is left after it lifts north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:45 PM, Metsfan said: How much precipitation is left after it lifts north? Not much. It's not a whole lot of taint. The south shore, eastern LI and the NJ Coasts will be dealing with p-type issues but we've known that for two days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:47 PM, earthlight said: Not much. It's not a whole lot of taint. The south shore, eastern LI and the NJ Coasts will be dealing with p-type issues but we've known that for two days now.thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My high res Precip type graphics for the SREF show rain as far NW as Morristown between hours 63 and 69 before collapsing the rain snow line back to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z NAM initialized with the northern stream shortwave completely onshore. Through hour 18 the energy looks consolidated in both streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:40 PM, gkrangers said: Absolutely. Love this look. It's not nearly as pointed towards a NJ coast hugger, but still has spread to the northwest. I wouldn't actually mind seeing the SREF surface verify a little further northwest than the mean, which is what the spread indicates now. Love it for Central NJ and NYC. How can anybody really complain if there's a period of light mix or dryslot after a huge thump of snow and then potentially a nice period of snow behind with the 500mb closed low? The 850s surge north as most of the initial precip is done. The same places in some of these, like Jan 26, 2011, that mixed ended up with the highest regional totals. The closed low likely won't deliver 12" of snow like that did, but a few more inches is possible with the backlash. I'm liking where pretty much all of us sit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:49 PM, YanksFan27 said: My high res Precip type graphics for the SREF show rain as far NW as Morristown between hours 63 and 69 before collapsing the rain snow line back to the southeast. Those are not high res graphics on storm vista when I can count the amount of pixels on the screen. Wait for the p-type probabilities on wxbell or ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 1:49 PM, YanksFan27 said: My high res Precip type graphics for the SREF show rain as far NW as Morristown between hours 63 and 69 before collapsing the rain snow line back to the southeast. Those are not high res and they are terrible with p-type anyways . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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