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State of the snowpack / Streak ends at 48-50 days for those around Rt.78/80 and S


Zelocita Weather

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We reach 4 weeks of continuous snow cover on Tuesday, 2/18, which is a lock, as Tuesday is our first day up to 40F in a long time.  Beyond that, even if the subsequent week has a warm-up with several days in the 40s, I'd be amazed if we lost more than 1/2 to 2/3 of the snowpack, given how much liquid equivalent there is frozen into the snowpack and LE (or total mass) is much higher than it might be in some years where we had the same frozen depth as we have now (at least in most places).  FYI, here's a post I made last night in the obs thread about concerns over the snowpack melting last night with some rain; similar argument can be made about the snow mass being very large, such that full melting (sans a 60F snoweater rainstorm) will take quite a while.  And the analysis, below didn't include the snow from last night, plus we'll get some more tomorrow. 

 

People: even an inch of rain on top of about 2.5" liquid equivalent as snow/ice will largely be absorbed by that snowpack, although compression will be significant, making it appear a large part of the snow is "gone."  For example, I had ~8" of snowpack left before this storm that probably contained about 1.4" LE from the 1/21 (~3" left as of 2/3), 2/3 (8" of ~10:1 rato snow), 2/5 (2" sleet and 0.25" ZR for 0.85" LE) and 2/9 (2.5" of 15:1 ratio snow) snow/sleet/ZR events (it was very cold through that whole period, so I'm guessing maybe 1/3 of that melted), which were about 2.1" LE, overall. 

 

Add on today's 1.1" LE as snow/sleet and that gets me my 2.5" LE before the changeover this afternoon. I'm guessing I now have close to 3.5" LE in my snowpack, as the 1+" of today's rain was mostly absorbed.  Sure, in urban areas where much of the roads/parking lots were cleared today, the rain would mostly go down the drain - I'm talking about rain falling on a snowpack.  And when it goes down into the 20s tonight, that 3.5" LE snowpack will be cemented in place (with hopefully a few inches of fresh snow on top).   

 

Feeling pretty good about my prediction and I'm hoping people realize how much more important snowpack mass (or liquid equivalent) is than depth, per se, in retaining a snowpack. 

 

So, prior to the warm-up, we got about another ~1/2" of LE (5" of snow on 2/15 and 2/18), bringing my estimated snowpack to 4" LE (~40" worth of "typical" 10:1 snow), compressed into about 14" of snow depth.  Figured we'd lose 1/2 to 2/3 of that snowpack this past week and we lost close to 2/3, as we now have a general 5-6" of dense snowpack pretty much everywhere on my property, as well as all of my neighboring properties, by eyeball.  Even the park across the street, which is in sunlight just about all day, has 3-4" of dense snowpack on it - the neighborhood kids were having fun with "spring sledding" conditions this weekend.

 

Drove a bit around Rahway and Edison today and saw similar amounts of snow for the most part, except on some of the south facing lawns with no shade at all, which had the start of some bare patches; I'm guessing some of these properties simply had more sun on them, as I doubt the amount of snow/rain to this point was much different, or the temps. 

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Most of my pack somehow survived. I'll post a pic in the morning when the sun rises. Can definitely see some south facing lawns without snow on them in places within my neighborhood, but for the most part, we shockingly still have snow on the ground here.

Still hanging on here too. Strangely enough, lost very little today considering this looked quite similar to yesterday's.
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Large bare patches on Rutgers campus now in the sunny spots but still a few inches where it's shady. My house in Bridgewater still has a lot of snowcover though...I measured about 8-10 inches this evening. Some of that probably because it's shadier but also probably because it's a little colder and there was more snowpack to begin with. Gonna take a long time for it all to melt.

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First, Holmdel Park area of Monmouth County. Generally 200-300ft in elevation and fairly wooded. Solid snow coverage of 4-8" everywhere.

 

 

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And here's from "Mt. Monmouth", at approximately 390ft above sea level, the highest elevated point in Monmouth County, also in the township of Holmdel.

 

Snow cover widespread of 4-8" except for south facing slopes.

 

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I traveled from Bensonhurst ,Brooklyn, to Hewlett N.Y. to work today, I found that there was way more snow still out there at least 50 percent coverage , decent piles still many parking spots unusable, while here in brooklyn it's all gone maybe 10-20 percent left with those mainly in all shade locations.

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I traveled from Bensonhurst ,Brooklyn, to Hewlett N.Y. to work today, I found that there was way more snow still out there at least 50 percent coverage , decent piles still many parking spots unusable, while here in brooklyn it's all gone maybe 10-20 percent left with those mainly in all shade locations.

Interesting. Same latitude 7 miles east and maybe 10 percent coverage all in shady areas.

Pretty cool to see where the rain snow line had been during the marginal storms in the photos blue wave posted

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