Wannabehippie Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 We reach 4 weeks of continuous snow cover on Tuesday, 2/18, which is a lock, as Tuesday is our first day up to 40F in a long time. Beyond that, even if the subsequent week has a warm-up with several days in the 40s, I'd be amazed if we lost more than 1/2 to 2/3 of the snowpack, given how much liquid equivalent there is frozen into the snowpack and LE (or total mass) is much higher than it might be in some years where we had the same frozen depth as we have now (at least in most places). FYI, here's a post I made last night in the obs thread about concerns over the snowpack melting last night with some rain; similar argument can be made about the snow mass being very large, such that full melting (sans a 60F snoweater rainstorm) will take quite a while. And the analysis, below didn't include the snow from last night, plus we'll get some more tomorrow. People: even an inch of rain on top of about 2.5" liquid equivalent as snow/ice will largely be absorbed by that snowpack, although compression will be significant, making it appear a large part of the snow is "gone." For example, I had ~8" of snowpack left before this storm that probably contained about 1.4" LE from the 1/21 (~3" left as of 2/3), 2/3 (8" of ~10:1 rato snow), 2/5 (2" sleet and 0.25" ZR for 0.85" LE) and 2/9 (2.5" of 15:1 ratio snow) snow/sleet/ZR events (it was very cold through that whole period, so I'm guessing maybe 1/3 of that melted), which were about 2.1" LE, overall. Add on today's 1.1" LE as snow/sleet and that gets me my 2.5" LE before the changeover this afternoon. I'm guessing I now have close to 3.5" LE in my snowpack, as the 1+" of today's rain was mostly absorbed. Sure, in urban areas where much of the roads/parking lots were cleared today, the rain would mostly go down the drain - I'm talking about rain falling on a snowpack. And when it goes down into the 20s tonight, that 3.5" LE snowpack will be cemented in place (with hopefully a few inches of fresh snow on top). When it rained here on Saturday evening, it beat down the snow pack. You would be surprised how much an inch of rain can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 When it rained here on Saturday evening, it beat down the snow pack. You would be surprised how much an inch of rain can do. What Saturday rain are you talking about? And regardless, 1" of rain onto a 5" liquid equivalent snowpack equals a 6" liquid equivalent snowpack (assuming temps below 40F or so - much higher than that will greatly increase melting) that is significantly more compressed than the original snowpack - compression does not equal lost snowpack, just a denser snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 The real test will be from midnight tonight through Saturday. Temps look like they old approach 60f tomorrow (hopefully for a limited time) and about 0.5" rain. The dew points in the 50s also are killer... It's going to be a close call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 How's everyone's pack holding up so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Holding but there's been some damage done. It appears the "bomb" has been dropped. If it rains a bit more today and doesn't go below freezing tonight I'll start seeing holes soon. At least the ice dams fell off the roof yesterday and I was able to remove the buckets from the bathroom and bedrooms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 this year has 46 days with at least an inch on the ground at KNYC...I think with the coming cold and snow chances it could end up with 55 or so days with one inch on the ground... days with 1" snow depth...74 in 1993-9465 in 1947-4858 in 2010-1156 in 1977-7855 in 1995-9652 in 1960-6147 in 1969-7047 in 1976-77 46 in 2013-14 as of 2/21/1442 in 1963-6442 in 2002-0341 in 2004-05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Really taking a beating now. Some open places are showing bare patches, and most south facing lawns/sloped lawns have bare patches. North facing lawns and shaded spots are still holding on well, but the high humidity/fog are really doing a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Snowpack is at 17" this morning IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Fog is eating it away quickly. Havent checked my stakes yet, but im definitely under a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm at about 16 on exposed slopes and pastures (too lazy to record an accurate average) with up to 18" in shadowy places. This snowpack has been put through the wringer the past few days and I have to say I'm proud of it, heh. 36F and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 19" here.. Holding on pretty good. 35f cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 is so foggy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Better to be foggy and 38F than not foggy and 62F (a al DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Manalapan, NJ snow pack holding up pretty well - rather surprised. It will be a big help with temperatures going below freezing the next few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Better to be foggy and 38F than not foggy and 62F (a al DC) i'll take the 62f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Still holding strong in freehold even after several warm days..I thought lastnights thick fog would do the trick, but i guess not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 still between 14-16, todays high was only 39 and temp actually dropped to 38 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 As I've been saying, pretty sure we will still have several inches of snow on the ground by Sunday night, when winter returns. I just can’t imagine this very dense snowpack all melting. There’s about 3-4” of liquid equivalent still bound up in it and that’s the equivalent of 30-40” of snow (and snow melt is a function of snow mass, not depth, i.e., we have 30-40" of typical 10:1 ratio snow compressed into 10-12” snow/ice right now) and 30-40” of "typical" snow ain’t all melting from the next 2 days of temps in the 50s, even with some rain/fog. If it does, I’ll be flabbergasted. Should be a lot less snow, though, on the ground by the time it gets back below 32F on Sunday night - I'm guessing 2-4" left on my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Temps really busted here. Temp holding around 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Temps really busted here. Temp holding around 38 How is that possible? It's 50 here in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It's only 38 degrees here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Just hit 40 with the rain. Was 37-38 the last few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 From Rt. 1 N & W, temps were a huge bust in cold's favor (Very impressive that we were able to stay at around 40F or under the whole day). Although once into Monmouth County and S. Jersey temps busted the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Even if you dont get into the 40s, the snowpack will enter the final battle of death tomorrow with 50F and full sun, (Mikehobbyst style), Feb 22nd has a solar noon angle of 39 degrees compared to 25 in Mid December, also down to a couple inches here in Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Even if you dont get into the 40s, the snowpack will enter the final battle of death tomorrow with 50F and full sun, (Mikehobbyst style), Feb 22nd has a solar noon angle of 39 degrees compared to 25 in Mid December, also down to a couple inches here in Staten Island Snowpack is getting obliterated here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 eyeballing it i'd say 5 - 6" snow cover here in east brunswick. 45F right now and at the high for the day. at 3pm it was 60F about 12 miles south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How is that possible? It's 50 here in midtown. Im not sure. EWR reporting 38 in line with what a station is picking up less then half a mile away from me. http://weather.weatherbug.com/NJ/Jersey%20City-weather.html?zcode=z6286&zip=07305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Steam coming off of the snow now after that quick and crazy storm. Better to be foggy and 38F than not foggy and 62F (a al DC)In what world? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xdurango Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm around 40 with a brief high of 43 so far. Im not sure. EWR reporting 38 in line with what a station is picking up less then half a mile away from me. http://weather.weatherbug.com/NJ/Jersey%20City-weather.html?zcode=z6286&zip=07305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Steam coming off of the snow now after that quick and crazy storm. In what world? Lol. Yea what the hell is he talking about? Mid 30s and damp is about the worst weather ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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