State of the snowpack / Streak ends at 48-50 days for those around Rt.78/80 and S

[Zelocita Weather]

If we can get a little more than 1 week of additional straight snowcover, most of us will have had 1 straight month. This would join the years of 93/94, 95/96, 02/03, and 10/11 in accomplishing this....

One of the marks of a great winter....

[+SNfreak21]

Mikehobbyst would be proud LOL

[Snowshack]

Sure look like we have a good shot, no real warmth until beyond d7

[gravitylover]

Long duration snowpack has always been my measure of how good a winter is.  The only downside around here is that for it to last any real length of time it has to be more icepack than snow.  At least I can ride my mt bike on this glaciated "material" we have now 

[uncle W]

season........Days ...............consecutive days....Max depth..
...................T 1" 4" 10"20"........ T 1" 4" 10"20"

1913-14......57 32 22 06 0....... 34 30 14 04 0..... 13"
1917-18......84 57 29 00 0....... 68 30 16 00 0..... 09"
1919-20......92 67 36 02 0....... 61 55 28 02 0..... 12"
1922-23......71 54 22 00 0....... 24 19 06 00 0..... 08"
1925-26......65 33 16 06 2....... 30 23 15 05 2..... 20"
1933-34......71 47 28 06 0....... 32 16 12 04 0..... 13"
1940-41......56 27 08 01 0....... 14 12 04 02 0..... 13"
1947-48......83 65 54 33 5....... 65 58 53 16 5..... 26"
1948-49......50 30 17 03 0....... 11 10 10 03 0..... 14"
1949-50......29 09 00 00 0....... 03 03 00 00 0..... 03"

1950-51......45 13 00 00 0....... 16 04 00 00 0..... 03"
1951-52......40 14 02 00 0....... 06 04 01 00 0..... 06"
1952-53......38 08 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04"
1953-54......32 14 10 00 0....... 16 11 10 00 0..... 09"
1954-55......35 13 00 00 0....... 06 04 00 00 0..... 03"
1955-56......51 20 08 02 0....... 11 08 07 02 0..... 13"
1956-57......52 18 04 00 0....... 11 06 02 00 0..... 06"
1957-58......69 37 17 01 0....... 23 09 06 01 0..... 10"
1958-59......45 19 01 00 0....... 12 10 01 00 0..... 05"
1959-60......61 27 10 06 0....... 13 09 06 04 0..... 15"

1960-61......77 52 41 20 3....... 38 32 30 10 3..... 24"
1961-62......59 26 04 00 0....... 17 10 03 00 0..... 06"
1962-63......62 23 07 00 0....... 13 11 07 00 0..... 04"
1963-64......76 42 21 05 0....... 27 14 08 05 0..... 13"
1964-65......58 31 06 00 0....... 28 13 03 00 0..... 06"
1965-66......38 23 09 00 0....... 24 19 07 00 0..... 07"
1966-67......64 34 16 05 0....... 16 10 08 05 0..... 13"
1967-68......44 23 01 00 0....... 15 15 01 00 0..... 06"
1968-69......55 33 20 08 0....... 32 24 17 08 0..... 15"
1969-70......71 47 08 00 0....... 39 35 04 00 0..... 06"

1970-71......58 11 03 00 0....... 20 04 03 00 0..... 06"
1971-72......60 21 06 00 0....... 12 08 03 00 0..... 05"
1972-73......30 03 00 00 0....... 03 02 00 00 0..... 02"
1973-74......57 38 07 00 0....... 20 17 07 00 0..... 06"
1974-75......35 10 03 00 0....... 06 05 03 00 0..... 08"
1975-76......41 27 03 00 0....... 12 08 02 00 0..... 04"
1976-77......69 47 09 00 0....... 53 37 07 00 0..... 06"
1977-78......94 56 30 12 0....... 67 35 20 06 0..... 18"
1978-79......42 23 09 03 0....... 18 17 04 03 0..... 16"
1979-80......36 10 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04"

1980-81......49 27 05 00 0....... 25 21 03 00 0..... 08"
1981-82......48 24 12 01 0....... 17 17 08 01 0..... 10"
1982-83......34 22 10 06 0....... 18 16 09 06 0..... 19"
1983-84......54 28 12 00 0....... 17 16 06 00 0..... 07"
1984-85......44 25 10 00 0....... 31 13 09 00 0..... 07"
1985-86......41 15 08 00 0....... 14 12 06 00 0..... 06"
1986-87......49 31 12 00 0....... 19 17 11 00 0..... 09"
1987-88......49 31 10 00 0....... 18 16 09 00 0..... 09"
1988-89......23 07 02 00 0....... 04 03 02 00 0..... 05"
1989-90......46 16 02 00 0....... 06 04 02 00 0..... 05"

1990-91......27 13 06 00 0....... 04 04 02 00 0..... 08" Feb. LGA obs...
1991-92......36 11 02 00 0....... 07 04 02 00 0..... 06"
1992-93......49 21 06 01 0....... 10 09 05 01 0..... 10"
1993-94......95 74 31 08 3....... 76 40 13 08 3..... 22"
1994-95......33 15 12 01 0....... 16 15 12 01 0..... 10"
1995-96......72 55 35 14 6....... 18 17 12 10 6..... 25" LGA obs...
1996-97......35 08 00 00 0....... 04 02 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs...
1997-98......27 02 01 00 0....... 03 02 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs...
1998-99......29 10 01 00 0....... 04 03 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs...
1999-00......40 23 08 00 0....... 24 19 05 00 0..... 06" LGA obs...

2000-01......57 33 17 02 0....... 18 16 11 02 0..... 13" LGA obs...
2001-02......22 03 00 00 0....... 04 03 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs...
2002-03......71 42 23 05 1....... 26 25 12 05 1..... 20" LGA obs...
2003-04......50 36 20 02 0....... 28 25 08 01 0..... 11" LGA obs...
2004-05......59 41 20 02 0....... 22 16 13 02 0..... 10" LGA obs...
2005-06......32 19 06 03 1....... 12 12 05 04 1..... 16" LGA obs...KNYC had one day with 20"...
2006-07......31 15 02 00 0....... 07 05 02 00 0..... 05"
2007-08......30 08 04 00 0....... 04 04 04 00 0..... 06"
2008-09......47 32 07 00 0....... 06 06 03 00 0..... 08"
2009-10......45 29 23 08 1....... 15 12 11 04 1..... 21"

2010-11......69 58 45 23 3....... 54 54 27 16 2..... 23"
2011-12......14 05 01 00 0....... 03 03 01 00 0......04"
2012-13......38 15 08 02 0....... 07 05 05 02 0......10"

2013-14......81 63 44 16 0....... 49 49 33 14 0......18" as of 4/16...(estimated totals)...

[Stormlover74]

If we can get a little more than 1 week of additional straight snowcover, most of us will have had 1 straight month. This would join the years of 93/94, 95/96, 02/03, and 10/11 in accomplishing this....

One of the marks of a great winter....

Its crazy that 8 days after getting 8" of snow and adding a few inches to it I still have about the same snowpack. Even if we get on the low end (6-8") Thursday the amount of snow on the ground will be very impressive

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

We are basically going to double out current snow pack which is already rock solid 6" around here. Regardless if we switch to sleet and some rain it just gets soaked up into the earlier snow! A 12" glacier should be on the ground this weekend

[uncle W]

todays snow pack imby...

 

[JBG]

if we get another 8-10" this winter will rank up there with the best snow depth years on record...

 

1971-72......60 21 06 00 0....... 12 08 03 00 0..... 05"

Great work.

But I don't remember anything like that number of days with even a trace of snow, nor that number of days of snow cover.

[uncle W]

Great work.

But I don't remember anything like that number of days with even a trace of snow, nor that number of days of snow cover.

we had a great February that year...almost 18" fell in NY..

[jm1220]

Some people must have some crazy amounts OTG now. I have about 11" depth after the snow we had yesterday was pummeled with rain and sleet. Season total of 48" now.

[TWCCraig]

If it wasn't for that torch on 2/2, then it would have really been over 3 straight weeks. We torched that day into the 50's, melting most of the remaining snow pack I had. There was some left over in piles and shaded areas, 50% coverage. If I count that day, I have 30 days this winter with an inch or more of snow OTG and 25 consecutive days.

[gravitylover]

Some people must have some crazy amounts OTG now. I have about 11" depth after the snow we had yesterday was pummeled with rain and sleet. Season total of 48" now.

MBY is right about 30" OTG.  If there weren't so many ice and sleet layers in there and several straight up rain events I can only imagine how deep it would be.  That said, I have a feeling it's not going anywhere for a few more weeks.  Long duration snowpack FTW 

[uncle W]

todays snow depth imby...

[SnoSki14]

Snow pack could be gone or nearly gone a week from now but it's been an impressive stretch for sure. Almost a month of wall to wall snow cover though it was nearly lost (80-85%) with the Super Bowl torch. You're usually lucky to get a week of snow cover around here. 

[RU848789]

Snow pack could be gone or nearly gone a week from now but it's been an impressive stretch for sure. Almost a month of wall to wall snow cover though it was nearly lost (80-85%) with the Super Bowl torch. You're usually lucky to get a week of snow cover around here. 

We reach 4 weeks of continuous snow cover on Tuesday, 2/18, which is a lock, as Tuesday is our first day up to 40F in a long time.  Beyond that, even if the subsequent week has a warm-up with several days in the 40s, I'd be amazed if we lost more than 1/2 to 2/3 of the snowpack, given how much liquid equivalent there is frozen into the snowpack and LE (or total mass) is much higher than it might be in some years where we had the same frozen depth as we have now (at least in most places).  FYI, here's a post I made last night in the obs thread about concerns over the snowpack melting last night with some rain; similar argument can be made about the snow mass being very large, such that full melting (sans a 60F snoweater rainstorm) will take quite a while.  And the analysis, below didn't include the snow from last night, plus we'll get some more tomorrow. 

 

People: even an inch of rain on top of about 2.5" liquid equivalent as snow/ice will largely be absorbed by that snowpack, although compression will be significant, making it appear a large part of the snow is "gone."  For example, I had ~8" of snowpack left before this storm that probably contained about 1.4" LE from the 1/21 (~3" left as of 2/3), 2/3 (8" of ~10:1 rato snow), 2/5 (2" sleet and 0.25" ZR for 0.85" LE) and 2/9 (2.5" of 15:1 ratio snow) snow/sleet/ZR events (it was very cold through that whole period, so I'm guessing maybe 1/3 of that melted), which were about 2.1" LE, overall. 

 

Add on today's 1.1" LE as snow/sleet and that gets me my 2.5" LE before the changeover this afternoon. I'm guessing I now have close to 3.5" LE in my snowpack, as the 1+" of today's rain was mostly absorbed.  Sure, in urban areas where much of the roads/parking lots were cleared today, the rain would mostly go down the drain - I'm talking about rain falling on a snowpack.  And when it goes down into the 20s tonight, that 3.5" LE snowpack will be cemented in place (with hopefully a few inches of fresh snow on top).   

 

[uncle W]

tomorrow will be the 40th day this winter with at least 1" on the ground at any time during the day...After next week 2013-14 should be nearing the top 5 of the list...

days with 1" snow depth...
74 in 1993-94
65 in 1947-48
58 in 2010-11
56 in 1977-78
55 in 1995-96
52 in 1960-61
47 in 1969-70
47 in 1976-77
42 in 1963-64
42 in 2002-03
41 in 2004-05

[Snowlover11]

We can get low 50s pretty easily imo. After the middle of next week though we could be in some trouble if we start to get that "warm up" and or rain.

[uncle W]

Central park recorded an 18" snow depth today...It's probably as solid as the rest of us have...The 1994 February melt down took us from 21" to 1" in five days...even if this melts off fast more snow might fall in March adding to the total...

[jm1220]

We didn't lose a lot of snowcover here in Long Beach, although we certainly did lose some-it's hard to preserve fully when temps hit 40 under full sun and 25 mph winds. But that's the beauty of a waterlogged snow-it takes much longer to melt. Dry snow would have been annihilated on a day like today. Tomorrow hopefully we add a few more inches to it and then the cooldown after the storm will freeze it all solid. The snow layer underneath this is essentially impenetrable. It would likely take a week in the 40s and 50s for us to really lose this much.

[uncle W]

since 1913-14 NYC had 25 straight days of at least 1" on the ground 13 times.....this year could end up in the 30-35 day range or longer...two of the years 1976-77 and 1969-70 were not big snow years but what fell didn't melt in the extreme cold...The later years like this one have twice as much snowfall but it melted faster...

58 in 1947-48

55 in 1919-20

54 in 2010-11

40 in 1993-94

37 in 1976-77

35 in 1977-78

35 in 1969-70

32 in 1960-61

30 in 1913-14

30 in 1917-18

25 in 2013-14

25 in 2002-03

25 in 2003-04

[Zelocita Weather]

Looks like wed thru Sunday will be melting days for the snowpack....with one storm a rain storm. I think it looks increasingly likely though that we hold it through the period and into another cold period.

[JBG]

Great work.But I don't remember anything like that number of days with even a trace of snow, nor that number of days of snow cover.

we had a great February (1971-2) that year...almost 18" fell in NY..

But almost all of the events were snow to rain. I lived in Scarsdale back then and, I'll admit, was away for about eight of those days. We did come back after the slop-storm of, I think, February 19 and 20. That snow didn't last long.

I just remember that winter and the winter following as having been almost snow-ocver-less.

Another weird one, in the other direction, was 1966-7. I remember the ground having snow almost from February 5 (two days before the blizzard) to mid-March and spending many after-school afternoons trying to "shovel" the front yard.

[uncle W]

But almost all of the events were snow to rain. I lived in Scarsdale back then and, I'll admit, was away for about eight of those days. We did come back after the slop-storm of, I think, February 19 and 20. That snow didn't last long.

I just remember that winter and the winter following as having been almost snow-ocver-less.

Another weird one, in the other direction, was 1966-7. I remember the ground having snow almost from February 5 (two days before the blizzard) to mid-March and spending many after-school afternoons trying to "shovel" the front yard.

check the records...They are what they are...1967 had a 60 degree day in mid February that melted most of the snow...1972 had two 5" snowfalls that were all snow...the KU event was a 4" to heavy rain to a 2" back side event...Temperatures were below average in February keeping the snowcover longer than normal...

[Zelocita Weather]

Looks like after the 1-3" today, most have between 14-18" of solid snowpack. Melting days will be Wed-Sat (with Friday the biggie). But with minimal rain with the frontal passage (0.25-.5") should be able to the hold the pack with not too much of an issue. Although I do think some areas can make a push at 55-60 on Friday which will do some damage. Once to Sunday should be safe as we await another storm. 

[gravitylover]

Well, I've got a 2' pack that's just about solid enough to walk on.  It's gonna take a bomb to get rid of this stuff.  A couple of above freezing foggy nights will put a hurt on it though, all it takes is a little bit of aeration and things degrade pretty quickly.  I wonder about ground temps under this stuff because most of the ponds and lakes here the inlets are still open water which leads me to think the creeks are flowing which usually means the soil isn't as frozen as you'd think.

[Wannabehippie]

Right now in Astoria we have 33 degrees with some scattered fog. It is going to be hard for any significant snow pack to survive this week of warmer temps (with the possibility of not being below freezing at night), along with some rain later this week.

 

The fog is a killer of snow.

[PB GFI]

Right now in Astoria we have 33 degrees with some scattered fog. It is going to be hard for any significant snow pack to survive this week of warmer temps (with the possibility of not being below freezing at night), along with some rain later this week.

 

The fog is a killer of snow.

you will be below freezing every nite but one over the next 5 days 

[Wannabehippie]

you will be below freezing every nite but one over the next 5 days 

I disagree. I think we will; stay above freezing, wednesday night, Thursday night and Friday night.  Beyond that we chill down.

I do not mean we will stay in the 40's or anything like that but low temp around 34. 

 

And as the snow melts it will be easier to stay above freezing with the warmer air moving in.

[uncle W]

today was the tenth straight day KNYC had at least 10" on the ground...Tomorrow will make eleven...That will make this streak the third longest with 10" on the ground...Only 1948 and 2011 had more with 16 straight days...