sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sea water temperatures cold too, around 37 degrees at Ambrose lighthouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 pretty ideal closed H5 low position for major snows on the NAVGEM for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 pretty ideal closed H5 low position for major snows on the NAVGEM for our area Yup but it's surface depiction doesn't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sea water temperatures cold too, around 37 degrees at Ambrose lighthouse. We won't climb above 34 as long as winds stay NE or ENE. So even if we do briefly flip over it won't be the crazy coastal front that spikes up to 40F+ and melts the snow. That is unless the low actually goes west of us which seems highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yup but it's surface depiction doesn't agree. If the 500mb low goes underneath us like that and is closed off, that's a huge hit. If the surface panel shows differently, it's wrong. The NAVGEM is generally useless anyway so I would disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We won't climb above 34 as long as winds stay NE or ENE. So even if we do briefly flip over it won't be the crazy coastal front that spikes up to 40F+ and melts the snow. That is unless the low actually goes west of us which seems highly unlikely. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEFS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEFS anyone? Tracks over the benchmark. Similar to 18z I think and seems to match the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope we get a nice storm out of this because it would be a nice finale for what has turned out to be a very good (great if we get this storm) winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEFS look great :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the 500mb low goes underneath us like that and is closed off, that's a huge hit. If the surface panel shows differently, it's wrong. The NAVGEM is generally useless anyway so I would disregard. I'm fully aware. I was just stating that it's surface depiction doesn't match H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hope we get a nice storm out of this because it would be a nice finale for what has turned out to be a very good (great if we get this storm) winter. Way too early to call it a finale. Some of our biggest storms have happened in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEFS look great :-D Want to elaborate??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM meteograms have like 30mm all snow , no rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From what I extrapolate from here is this is a MECS at best, not as SECS, but also not a HECS or BECS just a good ol' heavy snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With or without this storm, this has been a terrific winter, a once-in-ten-years type with sustained cold and snowpack and numerous storms. If we get THIS storm, we're talking about a winter up there with the greats of the 70's, something that we may not see again in our lifetimes if the climate continues to warm. I hope we get a nice storm out of this because it would be a nice finale for what has turned out to be a very good (great if we get this storm) winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM meteograms have like 30mm all snow , no rain for NYC. The precip maps shown before are sometimes too warm, so that's a good sign. That's about 1.2" liquid as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With or without this storm, this has been a terrific winter, a once-in-ten-years type with sustained cold and snowpack and numerous storms. If we get THIS storm, we're talking about a winter up there with the greats of the 70's, something that we may not see again in our lifetimes if the climate continues to warm. As I mentioned earlier, if we get a good 10 or 12" of snow out of this, most of us will be at 18-24" snow on the ground. That's incredible for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where is next storm potential after this JM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where is next storm potential after this JM? looks like a few clippers between sat and next mon/tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where is next storm potential after this JM? There may be one around day 7 but that's obviously a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Want to elaborate??? They're trending more west already and the true realization of sampling isn't even happening til the 12z's. By then (maybe even 6z's) the GFS will start caving towards the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any Incoming Euro yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With or without this storm, this has been a terrific winter, a once-in-ten-years type with sustained cold and snowpack and numerous storms. If we get THIS storm, we're talking about a winter up there with the greats of the 70's, something that we may not see again in our lifetimes if the climate continues to warm. It has been a great winter. I will cherish my memories of the deep snowpack in Central Park... walking my son to school in the snow and ice when every other district had the sense to cancel school... But I hope this storm implodes or goes rain, because I need to fly home from California Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any Incoming Euro yet? 1AM buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA has 988mb low off LI http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Closed 500mb low over the area: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM meteograms have like 30mm all snow , no rain for NYC. yes very nice hit as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1AM buddy should initialize shortly will get to h48 before 1am hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA has 988mb low off LI http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Closed 500mb low over the area: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_72HR.gif another warm solution....not liking tonights trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It has been a great winter. I will cherish my memories of the deep snowpack in Central Park... walking my son to school in the snow and ice when every other district had the sense to cancel school... But I hope this storm implodes or goes rain, because I need to fly home from California Thursday. Seriously. The continuous snowpack in Central Park is astounding. I cant remember the last time it lasted this long. Same with the piles of snow on the sides of the streets - gonna be a minefield walking around Manhattan if this potential verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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