Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS 66hr at 700mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The low ends up sub 980mb in the gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's the money shot Now nudge the Euro 50-75 miles east and we should be golden. Hopefully tonight we get the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 For William, et. al http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/f78.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My "gut" says snow to NCP in the NYC metro area! Ju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKIE looks great at hr 60…just south of OBX and is 998 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1" liquid from about Queens east and 0.75" to the Hudson River. 0.5" to I-287 and 0.25" to I-81. CCB just detonates over Long Island late Thursday on this run. This will likely trend better further south and west if the upper air presentation stays this way in future runs. It will also likely get colder if the closed 500/700/850 lows track offshore. That's as classic as it gets and is almost certainly a MECS if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fantastic run for you guys. GFS finally catching on. Makes you wonder about the NAM. .6 back in PHL to 1" to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1" liquid from about Queens east and 0.75" to the Hudson River. 0.5" to I-287 and 0.25" to I-81. CCB just detonates over Long Island late Thursday on this run. This will likely trend better further south and west if the upper air presentation stays this way in future runs. It will also likely get colder if the closed 500/700/850 lows track offshore. That's as classic as it gets and is almost certainly a MECS if that verified. Here's the map...Almost a 24hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lee Goldberg still preferring euro, going with 3-6 city to mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gfs and nam are close in qpf depiction at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Apparently the UK is a big time coast hugger and blows up just south of Long Island. So that goes to show that those freaking out over the NAM are dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ukmet 981 just off nj coast….that will give the coast issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 QPF aside, thats a great track for everyone, its strong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best part is there could be a sneaky system developing right behind this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lee Goldberg still preferring euro, going with 3-6 city to mix He'll change his mind if WSWs go into effect tomorrow indicating higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So no model consensus? Thankfully I didn't chose meteorology as my career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ukmet 981 just off nj coast….that will give the coast issues AHH issues , yah . Would rain once that center got to AC and hard until it got East of you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For William, et. al http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/f78.gif Thank you John... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ukmet 981 just off nj coast….that will give the coast issues The UK was due to have a wacky run like that, it almost always has one or two. Either way, it looks like a lot of precip falls as snow before getting too warm. Probably 75% of us would go to sleet/rain if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKIE has been right up there with the EURO regarding continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie is likely still a significant amount of frozen precipitation before that surface low gets here but yeah...gets real warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKIE has been right up there with the EURO regarding continuity. Its last run was over the BM, so not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The UK was due to have a wacky run like that, it almost always has one or two. Either way, it looks like a lot of precip falls as snow before getting too warm. Probably 75% of us would go to sleet/rain if that verified.The UKMET was similar at 12z intensity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The UKMET was similar at 12z intensity wise. It was nowhere near touching the NJ Coast at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It was nowhere near touching the NJ Coast at 12zi edited my post. Hasn't that model been on the deeper side of the concences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It was nowhere near touching the NJ Coast at 12z The 0 line on the UKIE still looks good from the river W , immediate NJ coast , KNYC and East , would flip for a while , if that center comes ENE off AC then it drags the 850`s east and they would change back . I wish I could see the next panel to see where the SLP ends up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So early returns show NAM shifted East and GFS/Ukie have shifted west from 12Z. Lets see what GGEM and Euro say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie is likely still a significant amount of frozen precipitation before that surface low gets here but yeah...gets real warm. I'll gladly take that as it seems even the worse scenario could still drop 6"+ of snow before any changeover if not a lot more due to insane dynamics before we changeover. I'll be ecstatic if the Euro shifts a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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