earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run looks likely to come in farther west. The mid and upper level jets are better oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks like its digging a bit more at 45…like the surface high placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think his point was that we aren't looking for a west trend, but a quicker development trend. My apologies, i Misread that. Computer eyes, GFS looks sharper with the base of the trough @ 45hrs compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 earthlight is 100% correct going to be further west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HR 51 the low is centered just off the northern SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS is still showing the mid level flow starting to inhibit the expansion of the CCB precipitation. We'll see if that changes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 54 going to go right over OBX….right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 earthlight is 100% correct going to be further west this run Hopefully the upper level development finally matches up and we see a nice CCB form on the closed 500 low present on other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 RH fields are more expansive at 700mb on the northwest side. So that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS is still showing the mid level flow starting to inhibit the expansion of the CCB precipitation. We'll see if that changes.. Increasingly looks like a staple that the kicker is affecting the slp Western extent QPF field ? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HR 60 steady snow up to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run looks way better. The H5 vorticity is taking a perfect track and the RH field is more expansive on the NW side. It may not be a QPF bomb but I expect this to take a nice track and bring good precipitation to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run is a lot better than 18z on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Increasingly looks like a staple that the kicker is affecting the slp Western extent QPF field ? Right? Was always a possibility. The kicker won't be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow, so there are definitely shifts still possible. If it comes in too fast, the storm will have a hard time developing heavy snow on the NW side of it. Looks like the GFS is finally becoming less lame with that precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 66 steady snow from central VA to Bos... 998 100 miles west of Newport News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 H5 closes off at hour 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nice. Still trying to catch on to the developing dynamics but this was a really good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 72 is woof…992 ccb ownage..qpf is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 66 steady snow from central VA to Bos... 998 100 miles west of Newport News U mean east, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's a slow mover. That's going to help with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 66 steady snow from central VA to Bos... 998 100 miles west of Newport News You mean east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really nice track of the mid level centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Awesome run...CCB hangs overhead through 78 hours and the mid level centers go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 0.25" plus contour runs pretty far NW back into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yes east…sorry hr 78 984 inside the bm…ccb cranking nyc-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Closed 500 low goes southeast of NYC and comma head develops nicely (still probably low with QPF and likely too warm with 700/850 lows going SE of Long Island). Great improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The low ends up sub 980mb in the gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Closed 500 low goes southeast of NYC and comma head develops nicely (still probably low with QPF and likely too warm with 700/850 lows going SE of Long Island). Great improvement. Here's the money shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yeah, the CCB starts getting going over top of your guys. Better looking @ h5 and surface.. dont think it's done trending. Nice track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yes east…sorry hr 78 984 inside the bm…ccb cranking nyc-east How far west is the CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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