+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The HI-RES NAM looks way better than the 12km NAM, precip shield is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM looks East too. you guys are in thrill mode. I am jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The snow maps on SV show little accumulations. Well under warning criteria and virtually nothing out in the far NW areas. That's the product of terrible ratios. Use your brain on this. These kind of posts make the thread worse. If you think that areas along I-95 are getting "little accumulations" with 0.75"+ liquid under a moderate to strong CCB, I don't know what to tell you. Even with poor ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 History puts this as a change. Hard to get a "BIG" dump on the coast with this set up. Marginal temps = warm air in as she ramps up. Trust me, I want a historical storm but... Again, it depends on the track and that is TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whoever thinks there's a guarantee at anything needs to get their heads checked whether it be the 0z Nam or the Euro/Euro ENS runs. There is still so much uncertainty and still 2 days of model runs to go through. We'll probably have our solution by 12z runs on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Why are you guys even talking about ratios ? Since you are here the 850`s on the 0z run are - 4 at KNYC and through CNJ . Ratio`s are not poor AT ALL pls stop with the 6 to 1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Use your brain on this. These kind of posts make the thread worse. If you think that areas along I-95 are getting "little accumulations" with 0.75"+ liquid under a moderate to strong CCB, I don't know what to tell you. Even with poor ratios.I just don't see it. The rates don't look great unless you're on the immediate coast. It's just one run anyway. Things will change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Use your brain on this. These kind of posts make the thread worse. If you think that areas along I-95 are getting "little accumulations" with 0.75"+ liquid under a moderate to strong CCB, I don't know what to tell you. Even with poor ratios. Seriously-and the rates look plenty heavy enough for good accumulations. The snow on Monday came down light-mod much of the time and accumulated just fine, in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just don't see it. The rates don't look great unless you're on the immediate coast. It's just one run anyway. Things will change again. Then you aren't using your brain. Sorry. You're wrong if you think the people under moderate to heavy precipitation with -2 to -4 850 temps and developing CCB and enhanced lift/dynamics are getting "little accumulation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Weatherbell maps with melting possibility included show 6-10" from I-95 southeast. Less northwest of that. 12" for parts of Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously-and the rates look plenty heavy enough for good accumulations. The snow on Monday came down light-mod much of the time and accumulated just fine, in the middle of the day. Yeah if we could get 8-10" with the Monday storm without a CCB and temperatures just as marginal and similar QPF, then I don't see why we can't with this assuming the Nam is correct of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Why are you guys even talking about ratios ? Since you are here the 850`s on the 0z run are - 4 at KNYC and through CNJ . Ratio`s are not poor AT ALL pls stop with the 6 to 1 . It's really only "one guy". As John indicated earlier, the 850s have actually looked fine the past few runs. People just look at the smoothed color map and don't bother looking at the temp profiles or the other hi-res modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAM snowfall through Hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Climatology will do coastal sections a favor. We are at/near the climatological trough of coastal SST's. SST's off the coast of LI are only 34-37F. Additionally there is rock solid snow-pack that exists in most coastal sections. Most areas on LI have 4 - 8" of rock hard snow-pack that isn't going anywhere prior to this storm. This will have a minor but noteworthy impact on surface temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah if we could get 8-10" with the Monday storm without a CCB and temperatures just as marginal and similar QPF, then I don't see why we can't with this assuming the Nam is correct of course. There's still a ways to go on this, and I wouldn't rule out meaningful shifts until probably tomorrow night. The NAM is always known for being quirky, and the Euro/ensembles are still adamant on the west/tucked in track. Right now, the best estimate is something of a compromise, but a lot can and likely will still happen. Not time to pop the champagne cork or jump off a bridge. The strength and speed of the kicker, still not entirely sampled yet, is huge in the evolution of all this. A slow or weak kicker makes a Euro track possible, a fast and stronger kicker makes a more sheared out storm possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM is more amplified than the NAM at 48 hours but not as amplified as the Euro. Pretty ideal look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's still a ways to go on this, and I wouldn't rule out meaningful shifts until probably tomorrow night. The NAM is always known for being quirky, and the Euro/ensembles are still adamant on the west/tucked in track. Right now, the best estimate is something of a compromise, but a lot can and likely will still happen. Not time to pop the champagne cork or jump off a bridge. The strength and speed of the kicker, still not entirely sampled yet, is huge in the evolution of all this. A slow or weak kicker makes a Euro track possible, a fast and stronger kicker makes a more sheared out storm possible. This is a thoughtful post...much like an approaching hurricane...expect a good deal of wobbling...probably in both directions...over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's really only "one guy". As John indicated earlier, the 850s have actually looked fine the past few runs. People just look at the smoothed color map and don't bother looking at the temp profiles or the other hi-res modeling.I Its one Op run of a high res model that's clearly better inside 48 hours , I am on the coast and my eyes are on the Euro Ensembles they throw 1 inch of liquid back to State College . I`m not worried about a whiff , I`m worried about Rain. Take the blend tonite , look to see how many runs look similar . and how each handle the Northern and southern branch feature . Build a forecast based on consensus not emotion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The snow maps on SV show little accumulations. Well under warning criteria and virtually nothing out in the far NW areas. That's the product of terrible ratios. The soundings are plenty cold for snow and the surface is below freezing. This run of the NAM would probably be 6"-12" in EWR, NYC and JFK and 4"-8" in the northern and western suburbs of NYC. That's still a pretty significant snowfall if it plays out that way, though at this range I'd still take the Euro over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Climatology will do coastal sections a favor. We are at/near the climatological trough of coastal SST's. SST's off the coast of LI are only 34-37F. Additionally there is rock solid snow-pack that exists in most coastal sections. Most areas on LI have 4 - 8" of rock hard snow-pack that isn't going anywhere prior to this storm. This will have a minor but noteworthy impact on surface temps as well. I have about 7-8" on the ground here at my house. As long as winds stay NE, temps shouldn't go over 33-34, even if a west track like the Euro verifies and we briefly switch to sleet or rain. Winds off snowcovered land are our best friend here, even though the mid levels may torch regardless in a west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here you can see the RGEM has more phasing and a slightly more amplified mid level height field when compared to the NAM. The surface low track would likely result in one slightly west of the 00z NAM solution. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It will extremely educational to many of us , IMHO, if the GFS continues to shift west minutes from now ( based on better sampling of the SW out west). Look with your mind not your weenie heart- Metreology is much more interesting from that vantage point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most of Long Island would likely remain snow if the surface feature failed to pass northwest of 39 N / 73 W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM at 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM is more amplified than the NAM at 48 hours but not as amplified as the Euro. Pretty ideal look. RGEM has been en fuego this winter. Really did a nice job with the storm last Monday and was pretty solid in it's suggestion on the cutoffs/precip amounts in the Tuesday Night/Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The gfs doesn't have to trend much west but rather show a much nicer CCB than it's been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM's last run was too far west, so isn't this really a case where we don't want too much more of a westward march? I think everything looks fantastic at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 No major changes on the GFS through 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is a little more amplified with the southern stream, and slightly less compressive with the northern stream. No reason to think that this run will be worse, but if it doesn't develop the CCB adequately it will be farther west and warmer without dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 its out to 33 hrs... the CCB hasnt't even formed yet. I think his point was that we aren't looking for a west trend, but a quicker development trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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