ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0.50" plus barely to NYC. Most of NNJ 0.25" plus, NE PA less. Major cave. Kind of interesting the NAM went towards GFS. Listenning to the radio show and they feel the Euro Ensembles (even further west than Op) are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nice considering the models were getting too amped.At face value you like this run but it's not a good trend. The precip shield on the western side would be reduced to a narrow band and dynamics would be minimal. I'll ride the Euro and it's ensembles until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS will be crowned KING after tonight's runs. Expect the shift to occur with the GGEM/EURO/UKMET tonight. The nam is know for theses shifts its just noise....I still like a track a little more to the west than the current run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Remember the northern stream is getting sampled much more extensively than previously so this could cause the models to shift east, which would be great considering how far west the Euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam is not a trend. A model that jumps around on every run shouldnt be consider as a start of a trend. Funny if GFS comes west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Shift east 850`s on the coast - 4 to -6 , It`s the 1st run of the 0z suite This was at OBX then outside of the Delmarva about to about 75 miles E of AC . I see .75 to KNYC 1 inch into Monmouth County . Remember its one OP run 50 hours out , lets take a blend tonite and look for continuity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM goes west at 18z, and then comes back east at 00z...and we have people calling it a "trend". Do I need to post the definition of the word trend in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was expecting some changes with better sampling of the northern stream but not to this extent. Could just be noise, or could not. Just shows the delicate nature of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM goes west at 18z, and then comes back east at 00z...and we have people calling it a "trend". Do I need to post the definition of the word trend in here? Maybe not a trend, but that's some interesting changes on the NAM, even through the first 24 hours. and the fact that it keeps it POS tilt all the way to the coast is a big change from rest of the earlier guidance. Better sampling? or the nam being the NAm? Surprising too, bc the the sref's had a lot of lean to the NW of the mean. PS, radio show FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People look at QPF too much in these runs on the maps. It is an example of not having run to run continuity. People want to see a bomb every run by every model. Would not stun me to see the NAM offer another slightly different evolution on it's 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow to mix to rain in the NYC metro area. Question is accumulation prior to the change. Just as likely as an all snow event in NYC if you ask me. Way too early to make a definitive statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No changeover in NYC metro according to the NAM...all levels are below zero for the entire event. Believe the truth lies between the really amped 18z run and the somewhat subdued 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 4k NAM to hour 60 looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe not a trend, but that's some interesting changes on the NAM, even through the first 24 hours. and the fact that it keeps it POS tilt all the way to the coast is a big change from rest of the earlier guidance. Better sampling? or the nam being the NAm? Surprising too, bc the the sref's had a lot of lean to the NW of the mean. The 12z runs were suggesting much more amplification and negative tilt earlier. I wouldn't throw myself to one side of the ring just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just as likely as an all snow event in NYC if you ask me. Way too early to make a definitive statement. I love a good snow but the setup is warm. Snow to start, chances of an all snow event are slim. When the warm wins is the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Around 0.75-1.00 QPF For NYC and 1.00-1.25 For The Southern Boroughs And All Of LI And SI. Eastern Long Island And Monmouth County South Is 1.25+. The Cape is 1.25+ Aswell. Nice Backend Snows as the trough closed off east of the Cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 4k NAM to hour 60 looks solid. Shoot a link up here and help me out. I'm having trouble with my links all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love a good snow but the setup is warm. Snow to start, chances of an all snow event are slim. When the warm wins is the question Yea but it depends on the track. You would be correct with a Euro Ensembles kind of track, perhaps a mix with Euro Op. The other models are pretty much an all snow event (NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The snow maps on SV show little accumulations. Well under warning criteria and virtually nothing out in the far NW areas. That's the product of terrible ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Around 0.75-1.00 QPF For NYC and 1.00-1.25 For The Southern Boroughs And All Of LI And SI. Eastern Long Island And Monmouth County South Is 1.25+. The Cape is 1.25+ Aswell. Nice Backend Snows as the trough closed off east of the Cape! Nam or 4k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Shoot a link up here and help me out. I'm having trouble with my links all of a sudden.They are cracking down on posting paid maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love a good snow but the setup is warm. Snow to start, chances of an all snow event are slim. When the warm wins is the question This post is based on nothing objective, particularly with respect to the 0z Nam. 0z Nam is all snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wouldn't panic at all over a NAM run. Wait until later for the more reliable models and then tomorrow at 12z, at that point after all players have been sampled well, we should have a better idea. But it's certainly possible that the kicker has more of an influence on the coastal low and nudges it NE as it impinges on the NW precip flank, we'll have to see once it all has been sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm also seeing the 0.75" contour running right a long 95. That seems to be the boundary on the more eastern models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's to much wish casting going on... We get that some folks here want an eastern Track and those of us in the NW burbs want a western track but let's call it like it is.. The nam went from east at 12z less amped, to west at 18z and amped, then backed off at 00z and back east... Anyone taking the nam serious over 50 hrs out right now is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Remember the northern stream is getting sampled much more extensively than previously so this could cause the models to shift east, which would be great considering how far west the Euro is.Good sampling of the northern stream energy won't come to fruition until tomorrow's 12z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 0z NAM closes off at 500mb later. So the surface low tracks further east and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The snow maps on SV show little accumulations. Well under warning criteria and virtually nothing out in the far NW areas. That's the product of terrible ratios. It would be a sloppy wet snow at 32-33 around the city and coast. The ratios would be poor but there would certainly be accumulations from 0.75-1.25" liquid equivalent at that temp. The storm last Monday had the exact same conditions and dumped 7-9" of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea but it depends on the track. You would be correct with a Euro Ensembles kind of track, perhaps a mix with Euro Op. The other models are pretty much an all snow event (NYC). History puts this as a change. Hard to get a "BIG" dump on the coast with this set up. Marginal temps = warm air in as she ramps up. Trust me, I want a historical storm but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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