February 12-13 Storm, Part II

stormtracker · February 10, 2014

Here

clskinsfan · February 10, 2014

For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous!

12Z NAM for DCA:

140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0
140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0
140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0
140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0
140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0
140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0
140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0
140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0
140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0
140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13
140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29

WxUSAF · February 10, 2014

For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous!

12Z NAM for DCA:

140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0

140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0

140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0

140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0

140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0

140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0

140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0

140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0

140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0

140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0

140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0

140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0

140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13

140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29

BUFKIT is useless for us. It's programmed with Tug Hill powder snow ratios. I'd bet my bank account DC doesn't see 17-19:1 ratios in this storm.

RickinBaltimore · February 10, 2014

For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous!

12Z NAM for DCA:

140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0

140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0

140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0

140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0

140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0

140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0

140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0

140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0

140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0

140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0

140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0

140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0

140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13

140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29

27:1 Ratios? Uh.....

Scarlet Pimpernel · February 10, 2014

For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous!

12Z NAM for DCA:

140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0

140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0

140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0

140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0

140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0

140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0

140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0

140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0

140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0

140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0

140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0

140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0

140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13

140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29

That's definitely some good entertainment...22" at DCA, yeah, sure! But fun to look at.

Ian · February 10, 2014

BUFKIT is useless for us. It's programmed with Tug Hill powder snow ratios. I'd bet my bank account DC doesn't see 17-19:1 ratios in this storm.

Wasn't it giving like 50"+ for Feb 2010 at times?

Scarlet Pimpernel · February 10, 2014

Wasn't it giving like 50"+ for Feb 2010 at times?

I was just going to ask if anyone remembers what it gave DCA for the Feb. 5-6, 2010 storm. Yeah, bet it was outlandish too. I know there was some output pushing 40" in parts of MD just north of DC, and in fact a couple of reports were close to 40" I recall.

WinterWxLuvr · February 10, 2014

GFS ens mems look a little less suppressed than at 6z

WxUSAF · February 10, 2014

Wasn't it giving like 50"+ for Feb 2010 at times?

Yeah, maybe even up near 60". Just ludicrous. We got nice powder back a couple weeks ago and even that averaged out to probably ~15-17:1 for most of the area over the length of the storm. With 850s probably only a couple degrees below freezing and the entire column not particularly frigid, we probably won't see optimal dendrite growth until the ULL passage. So the first wave of precip will probably have our typical 9-11:1 ratios and maybe the ULL snows might get us 12-15:1.

Bob Chill · February 10, 2014

I'd say we're in good shape with the GEFS.

NCWX · February 10, 2014

I was the one who reported 37 inches in Front Royal VA on the Feb 5-6 storm. I used the white board method.

winterymix · February 10, 2014

GFS ensemble is kind to DC and even generous to central VA.

Quasievil · February 10, 2014

I'd say we're in good shape with the GEFS.

gefs.JPG

Still, too many warm runs in there though.

H2O · February 10, 2014

I'd say we're in good shape with the GEFS.

gefs.JPG

only two or three show a miss so very little spread.

Ian · February 10, 2014

GEFS in the right where we want it camp too.

Bob Chill · February 10, 2014

Still, too many warm runs in there though.

It's lower resolution. Don't worry about that. SLP track tells the story.

Quasievil · February 10, 2014

It's lower resolution. Don't worry about that. SLP track tells the story.

Thanks. Yeah, pleased that the track looks good.

Bob Chill · February 10, 2014

GEFS in the right where we want it camp too.

No doubt. Looks good to me. We're done with the GEFS for its usefulness at this point. It won't add much value going forward. The envelope is pretty tight now. Op runs and short range can now take the torch and freak us out.

MN Transplant · February 10, 2014

CMC precip meteogram

Amped · February 10, 2014

If the low bombs like the euro says 925 temps won't be an issue. Gfs doesn't deepen the low as fast.

Ian · February 10, 2014

No doubt. Looks good to me. We're done with the GEFS for its usefulness at this point. It won't add much value going forward. The envelope is pretty tight now. Op runs and short range can now take the torch and freak us out.

Someone's gonna get demolished. I'm pumped. Let's get time to speed up.

SabreAce33 · February 10, 2014

Ugh, I get fringed in the worst sort of way. Plenty of precip and no cold air to go with it. Nothing worse than a cold rain while it's pouring snow on the other side of the bay.

mattskiva · February 10, 2014

Yeah, maybe even up near 60". Just ludicrous. We got nice powder back a couple weeks ago and even that averaged out to probably ~15-17:1 for most of the area over the length of the storm. With 850s probably only a couple degrees below freezing and the entire column not particularly frigid, we probably won't see optimal dendrite growth until the ULL passage. So the first wave of precip will probably have our typical 9-11:1 ratios and maybe the ULL snows might get us 12-15:1.

But isn't the 2010 storm a bad example for arguing that bufkit ratios are too high? From what I recall, ratios were extremely high especially at IAD - I thought the QPF ended up much lower than forecasts but snowfall totals were high anyway. I believe the QPF was well under 2" at IAD with 32" accumulation.

Deck Pic · February 10, 2014

Someone's gonna get demolished. I'm pumped. Let's get time to speed up.

we're like 54 hours from onset..not too bad

Scarlet Pimpernel · February 10, 2014

But isn't the 2010 storm a bad example for arguing that bufkit ratios are too high? From what I recall, ratios were extremely high especially at IAD - I thought the QPF ended up much lower than forecasts but snowfall totals were high anyway. I believe the QPF was well under 2" at IAD with 32" accumulation.

Actually IAD had over 3.00" QPF from the Feb. 5-6, 2010 event, and I think the ratios for awhile were surprisingly a bit less than 10:1. But yeah, they got an incredible 32" out of that even with lower ratios for a time, simply because it was literally pouring snow overnight on the 5th. I think BWI got well over 2.00" liquid equivalent.

Deck Pic · February 10, 2014

But isn't the 2010 storm a bad example for arguing that bufkit ratios are too high? From what I recall, ratios were extremely high especially at IAD - I thought the QPF ended up much lower than forecasts but snowfall totals were high anyway. I believe the QPF was well under 2" at IAD with 32" accumulation.

It was 3.45"

Deck Pic · February 10, 2014

I was kind of going to do Euro quasi-pbp, but with getting sql'ed not sure it is worth it....

yoda · February 10, 2014

CMC precip meteogram

R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Washington.png

For those not metrically inclined... ~32mm of snow. That is 1.25" QPF

Ji · February 10, 2014

We do historical storms and car toppers pretty well.

mitchnick · February 10, 2014

comparing 0Z Euro numbers for Charlotte with actual numbers today and Euro's forecast for latter today, it is coming in warmer

I have no idea if that means anything down the road for anyone other than they may get screwed

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February 12-13 Storm, Part II

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