BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yellow bands return at hr 69 as dc approaches 15 while southeast of that is more, amazing run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 H72. OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 at 63 hours, NAM has 850 line of -5C draped over I95! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam doesn't close off h5 until 72 but the low track is epic. I think we just found our perfect solution but it's the nam so... Still not running to the Euro at least... which keeps it sort of lonely on the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A blend absolutely crushes me. I don't know if it works that way but I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 ok, we can stop right here. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 through hour 75, 2" for DCA-BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam is vomiting snow over us! All hail the euro, it has been steady as can be expected for days now... finally the US models are catching up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Instantweathermaps looks like dc is close to 20" when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow. Dc is absolutely destroyed on this run. It stronger than 12Z and the precip field has expanded considerably. This is just an epic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At 72, there's a 993 low off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The ideal scenario, for sure. Colder all around with lots of QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 24" near Wes. DC around 18", but hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 quick storm...18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM jackpot is where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 24" near Wes. DC around 18", but hard to tell. nice. let's get wes jazzed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 purpled finally. The NAM is about as good as we can get. Why couldn't this be tomorrow at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think I've seen a run like that in this range since 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 purpled finally. The NAM is about as good as we can get. Why couldn't this be tomorrow at 18z It can still get a little better for us. I want every other model a little too east if the Euro is where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think I've seen a run like that in this range since 2010 march 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 24" near Wes. DC around 18", but hard to tell. If I were to draw a fantasy 850 low position for a big wes snowstorm. The 18Z NAM has it. If it is right, or even partly right, gonna have some two inch an hour rates which will get Matt stoked. If we weren't still in the NAM fantasy range, I'd look at sounding for an unstable layer and thundersnow potential. That might be my Wed article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 7am Thursday. So much for rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Afternoon LWX disco .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...LOOKING LIKELY THAT A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THEREGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY DESPITE PHASING ANDTRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND NORTHERNSTREAM SHORT WAVE /CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE BRITISHCOLUMBIA COAST RESPECTIVELY PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILLPHASE WEDNESDAY....RESULTING IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWTHAT WILL TRACK NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON THURSDAY.DOWNSTREAM ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER JET IN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER BYABOUT 40KT COMPARED TO GFS/NAM AND RESULTING IN STRONGERCYCLOGENESIS AND FARTHER WEST TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF/CANADIANALSO PHASING THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY QUICKER. THE RESULTANTTHERMAL GRADIENT IN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AS WELL...WITH MORERAIN AND SLEET TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. GFS/NAMFORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW AT THE ONSET THEN SLEET MIXING INNEAR THE CHSPK BAY AS WARM NOSE PUSHES NNE.MAJOR QPF DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS WELL WITH ECMWF SHOWING AWIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...WHICH IS CONSISTENT TO THEPREVIOUS RUN AS WELL. NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHARP CUTOFF GRADIENT OFQPF ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE...LIKELY DUE TO PRECIP BEING GENERATEDWITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/TROWAL FORCING AND IN A BANDING NATURE.ECMWF SHOWS MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH DEFORMATION ZONEPRECIP AND HENCE THE HIGHER QPF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET WITH12 OR 10:1 SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THISPOINT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR SLEET ISLIKELY. STORM SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think I've seen a run like that in this range since 2010 Absolutely not, nothing even comes close. This is like a clown-GFS-map-240-hours-out-that-people-go-ridiculous-over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 quick storm...18 hours I know JI wants to know how it looks for the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The beauty of this run is that we don't even flirt with a mix. The worst temp news is that the surface goes to 34 Thurs afternoon so we get some dripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 now let's just get the GFS into the NAM/EURO envelope and we can just sort out who wins the deformation game later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gonna be some crazy sick banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I see answers to my question above. Wow. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 72 hr QPF...still time to shift that dark red 2.5-3 NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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