mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 holy carp! soundings thru 72 hrs imby are all snow on Euro skewts....that's .83" qpf!!! at 78 hrs, it's a sleet sounding with another .47" qpf so even if a 1/3 is snow, I'm 1' qpf snow, and then it changes back to snow between 78 and 84 hours with another .33" falling after 78 hrs. that is surprisingly colder than what I thought I'll check DCA next oh, and I don't have to look at IAD because they were all snow on the 0Z run and this one is a hair colder NOW I'M PI$$ED!!! DCA EURO soundings at 72, 78 and 84 are SNOW!!! comes close at 72 with some rimming, but still should be all snow the question for both locations is, of course, what happens in between the 6 hour intervals very encouraging for us I95 losers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 NOW I'M PI$$ED!!! DCA EURO soundings at 72, 78 and 84 are SNOW!!! comes close at 72 with some rimming, but still should be all snow the question for both locations is, of course, what happens in between the 6 hour intervals very encouraging for us I95 losers! There's gotta be a warm layer in there somewhere? 925? You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No mention of mixing from LWX in the watch for western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would assume in my location, except with good rates it would have some IP involved or snow pellets... NOW I'M PI$$ED!!! DCA EURO soundings at 72, 78 and 84 are SNOW!!! comes close at 72 with some rimming, but still should be all snow the question for both locations is, of course, what happens in between the 6 hour intervals very encouraging for us I95 losers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ellinwood. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NOW I'M PI$$ED!!! DCA EURO soundings at 72, 78 and 84 are SNOW!!! comes close at 72 with some rimming, but still should be all snow the question for both locations is, of course, what happens in between the 6 hour intervals very encouraging for us I95 losers! Euro looked better than it did overall.. track is still too close. But in that I'm not sure why everyone is running to the Euro + warm. It's still on the western edge of guidance. I mean with the high running away and no massive blocking it might want to run inland but the Euro is still often too amped even at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NOW I'M PI$$ED!!! DCA EURO soundings at 72, 78 and 84 are SNOW!!! comes close at 72 with some rimming, but still should be all snow the question for both locations is, of course, what happens in between the 6 hour intervals very encouraging for us I95 losers! Where do you get Euro Skew-T's? One thing I can't stand about WeatherBell is the missing soundings... (unless I'm a dolt and just can't find them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Major shifts in track or intensity Which shouldn't happen until the 0z models, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 100% agree Ian (my earlier comment was for humor although true in some respects)... 10+ for my area is like once every three years if that... its gotta be like once every 5 for DC.. at this lead you have to go with the percentages.. especially since we dont have the best cold air scenario.. all that being said... the CWG article very bullish.. IMHO.. especially if you those who have read you guys over the last couple of years We really wanted to stay conservative with the probabilities as we're still over 60hrs away from the storm so a 30% chance of over 8 inches and a 50% chance of over 4" is pretty doggone bullish in terms of probabilities especially when you throw in the climo pops for such events. They are really rare. but you aready agree, I'm just re-affirming what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's gotta be a warm layer in there somewhere? 925? You sure? Nope....close at 72 but not at that precise time like I said, there will probably be a warm layer that intrudes but it must do it for less than 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Which shouldn't happen until the 0z models, right? The "big shifts might come" is usually a canard. The models already have a crap ton of info before that wave hits shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's the DCA 10"+ storm chart re the convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Euro Ens mean supports the OP...around 1.6" QPF for DC EDIT - almost identical track..totally locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Where do you get Euro Skew-T's? One thing I can't stand about WeatherBell is the missing soundings... (unless I'm a dolt and just can't find them) accu wx I ran the skewts at a location within a few hundred feet of my house so I could use precise lat/long to the hundredth i.e. 39.90/-76.90 (that's not mine but just an example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Euro Ens mean supports the OP...around 1.6" QPF for DC what about temps? any noticeable or meaningful diff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Does anyone have the 12z Euro Ens mean of QPF for MRG and HGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is more amped. Maybe slightly more definition to the southern wave, but I don't see a lot different between 18z @ 36 and 12z @ 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 what about temps? any noticeable or meaningful diff? I see you're worried about temps. For Annapolis folks like myself that makes sense but the hunch is that BWI does well even with a little sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 what about temps? any noticeable or meaningful diff? maybe a smidge warmer, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Euro Ens mean supports the OP...around 1.6" QPF for DC That's good to hear... about the same track per se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 maybe a smidge warmer, yeah slightly.. could just be smoothing. the track is basically exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I see you're worried about temps. For Annapolis folks like myself that makes sense but the hunch is that BWI does well even with a little sleet. oh no, my friend, I had a ton of sleet during 3/93 and 1/96 I'll do better than you in temp dept., but not by as much as you would think west is where you want to be in this storm and I'm not that much west of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, I think so. But I have a hunch (hope??) the back end thump might be more than normal. If I can get 4-6" on the front side, then another 2-4" to top off the crusted layer, I will be happy. This would also fit the climo...i.e. 6-10" for us east of 95, and probably 12-18+ west where it stays all snow. Ellinwood. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 maybe a smidge warmer, yeah slightly.. could just be smoothing. the track is basically exactly the same. wrong answer!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wrong answer!!! op > ensembles at this range. or something. :heavyrain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The good news is that us eastern folks, especially NE of DC, can make up some ground with the intensifying CCB/deformation axis snow on the back end...at least with potentially longer duration higher snowfall rates as compared to when the back end of the comma head (and a low not as deep) are farther upstream or southwest. oh no, my friend, I had a ton of sleet during 3/93 and 1/96 I'll do better than you in temp dept., but not by as much as you would think west is where you want to be in this storm and I'm not that much west of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd think that you and I would do very well to have a repeat of 3/93. I believe the airport reported just a tad under 12" for that event. oh no, my friend, I had a ton of sleet during 3/93 and 1/96 I'll do better than you in temp dept., but not by as much as you would think west is where you want to be in this storm and I'm not that much west of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd think that you and I would do very well to have a repeat of 3/93. I believe the airport reported just a tad under 12" for that event. total qpf at BWI is around 1.60 with the skewts I looked at, 12-15" is a lock verbatim 12z run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Phasing on the 18z NAM looks slightly faster than the 12z NAM through 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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