Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Matt, I like your facebook post. We're still a bit away from really knowing the exact track. In this case, even 25 miles can make a big difference. At the very least I don't think it can go much further west in light of all other guidance. Euro closes off h5 @ hr66 centered over western TN, Then it rolls the ball NE. The vort would need to go neutral sooner to get a further west track. Not all guidance is closing h5 either. GFS kinda does but it remains progressive/neutral. Even the slightest delay in closing off or not closing off and simply being a bit less amped moves the track to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 well, Euro is again colder than the last run, albeit by not much, but I'll take it this is the 4th run in the row it's gotten colder for DCA/BWI It DOES show us flipping over to sleet though, at least that's what I've read on here. I think it would be smart of us to assume we won't be seeing the gargantuan accumulation amounts due to how the temperature line has formed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Matt, I like your facebook post. We're still a bit away from really knowing the exact track. In this case, even 25 miles can make a big difference. At the very least I don't think it can go much further west in light of all other guidance. Euro closes off h5 @ hr66 centered over western TN, Then it rolls the ball NE. The vort would need to go neutral sooner to get a further west track. Not all guidance is closing h5 either. GFS kinda does but it remains progressive/neutral. Even the slightest delay in closing off or not closing off and simply being a bit less amped moves the track to the east. Its almost like a catch-22 for us... close it off like the EURO and we can get higher snow amounts, but we likely mix with PL. Not close off like the GFS and remain snow, but with lesser amounts. Not quite sure that there is a middle road we can take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It DOES show us flipping over to sleet though, at least that's what I've read on here. I think it would be smart of us to assume we won't be seeing the gargantuan accumulation amounts due to how the temperature line has formed this year. You talking about AA County though (Cape St. Claire)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CIPS still more bullish than the GFS itsel and inline with the Euro idea. Where do you get the CIPS analogs? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You talking about AA County though (Cape St. Claire)? Yeah, AA County but I'm guessing the flip over pertains to any county east of 95 in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF looks just SE of the benchmark Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hey all, I don't post much, just like reading you guys stuff! But just so I understand, I live by Wes so overall the further East the storm tracks the colder it will get further east? obviously I don't want so east that it is OTS, but that is how it would basically work. More east track moves colder air east and vice versa. Also, more east track moves heavier snow more east or does that not matter, does the track just affect the temps? Thanks in advance guys, love reading your insight and banter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you throw out the american guidance and hug the euro verbatim, then I agree...but who would do that 54 hours out?....Not the I am accountable to the public, but I have been forecasting a long time, and 8-14" is way too bullish at this range when you have a major model giving us 0.75" with mixing I agree. Its tough to talk about accums at this point. We do not have any kind of model concensus. I suspect the Euro is a little to far west and the GFS to far east. I feel bad for the TV mets this evening. I am sure we will hear something like accumulating snow is likely but just how much is still unknown. Really the only way to play it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its almost like a catch-22 for us... close it off like the EURO and we can get higher snow amounts, but we likely mix with PL. Not close off like the GFS and remain snow, but with lesser amounts. Not quite sure that there is a middle road we can take I think hedging towards it closing off and more amped solution is prob the way to go (but not necessarily as amped as the euro). GFS was super close and it still looks to be catching up. NAM was quick to the gun obviously. GGEM is later with near perfect neutral @ 72 and closed in southern VA @ 78. Oddly, the GGEM is just about the perfect middle ground to the euro/gfs solutions @ h5. We'll see what happens. If the euro slows the close by 6 hours then it would be a big city destruction imo. We just can't determine those fine details yet. Prob not until this time tomorrow and even then little things mean a lot irt sensible wx in each individual's back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CWG staying cautious, probably a good idea, but a bit surprised by how cautious, Wes/Ian http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/heavy-snow-threat-for-d-c-area-wednesday-night-and-thursday-but-mix-rain-also-possible/ Yeah, that's a bit bearish I'd think. I-95 with only a 70% chance of over an inch? And only a 50% chance of over 4 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Model disco looks ahead to better track detail by 18z: AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHOREINTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BEYET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITHTHE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOMECONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF looks just SE of the benchmark Sent from my iPhone The SREF is a money track for me and you...still a sharp cutoff...like 0.7" for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hey all, I don't post much, just like reading you guys stuff! But just so I understand, I live by Wes so overall the further East the storm tracks the colder it will get further east? obviously I don't want so east that it is OTS, but that is how it would basically work. More east track moves colder air east and vice versa. Also, more east track moves heavier snow more east or does that not matter, does the track just affect the temps? Thanks in advance guys, love reading your insight and banter! Yeah, the further east the colder it is essentially, pretty standard. But also the further east the less QPF for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its almost like a catch-22 for us... close it off like the EURO and we can get higher snow amounts, but we likely mix with PL. Not close off like the GFS and remain snow, but with lesser amounts. Not quite sure that there is a middle road we can take Any other options on the table? If this thing deepens rapidly enough off Hatteras, would it not generate enough N/NE windflow to keep us all snow? For DCA/BWI anyway? Just wishful thinking I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, the further east the colder it is essentially, pretty standard. But also the further east the less QPF for the most part The big question is what is max qpf dca can get and remain all snow. My guess is close to 1" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CWG staying cautious, probably a good idea, but a bit surprised by how cautious, Wes/Ian http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/heavy-snow-threat-for-d-c-area-wednesday-night-and-thursday-but-mix-rain-also-possible/ I wasn't in on the discussion today so dunno. I'm probably a little more bullish than Wes but maybe because I'm a little west of him. He's a way better forecaster than me though. 10"+ storms are unusual for DC one way or another so no reason to go past that for now. (re other conversations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I love the typos in some of the NCEP discussions, such as this one: "ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF SNOW...SLEEP...AND FREEZING WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD." ======================================= There will be no SLEEP, that's fer-sher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anything more than 6-10 for DC seems too risky right now. Really no need to go 'all in' on Monday afternoon. Anyway, NAM rollin'..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I love the typos in some of the NCEP discussions, such as this one: "ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF SNOW...SLEEP...AND FREEZING WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD." ======================================= There will be no SLEEP, that's fer-sher. Oh, thank you! I'm going to save this one, and torture whoever wrote it when I get back to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CWG staying cautious, probably a good idea, but a bit surprised by how cautious, Wes/Ian http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/heavy-snow-threat-for-d-c-area-wednesday-night-and-thursday-but-mix-rain-also-possible/ No you have take that in context... 50% chance of more than 4 Inches > 48 hours out is basically a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-110400-/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.140213T0000Z-140214T0300Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG254 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAYEVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET* ACCUMULATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 holy carp! soundings thru 72 hrs imby are all snow on Euro skewts....that's .83" qpf!!! at 78 hrs, it's a sleet sounding with another .47" qpf so even if a 1/3 is snow, I'm 1' qpf snow, and then it changes back to snow between 78 and 84 hours with another .33" falling after 78 hrs. that is surprisingly colder than what I thought I'll check DCA next oh, and I don't have to look at IAD because they were all snow on the 0Z run and this one is a hair colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really thought LWX would have waited till tomorrow morning for the WSW's... or at least through the 00z runs tonight... guess they must have high confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 damn, watch already?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow that was fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is a winter storm watch issued this far in advance kinda rare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Translation please of what "marked trends" may mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Translation please of what "marked trends" may mean. Major shifts in track or intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wasn't in on the discussion today so dunno. I'm probably a little more bullish than Wes but maybe because I'm a little west of him. He's a way better forecaster than me though. 10"+ storms are unusual for DC one way or another so no reason to go past that for now. (re other conversations) 100% agree Ian (my earlier comment was for humor although true in some respects)... 10+ for my area is like once every three years if that... its gotta be like once every 5 for DC.. at this lead you have to go with the percentages.. especially since we dont have the best cold air scenario.. all that being said... the CWG article very bullish.. IMHO.. especially if you those who have read you guys over the last couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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