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February 12-13 Storm, Part II


stormtracker

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different storm but yes...maybe a useful guide for amounts...something like 6-8" for DCA (they'd do better if the euro is right), and 10-12" NW DC....that would be a major event

Different storm but cold to start with an inland track,  plus wet,  This track actually is better than that one if the euro is right.

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it's like 15"+.. enough I suppose.  

 

perhaps generous anyway.  but as much as the euro owns it's still on the western edge of guidance. 

I think it is a little too far west.  It's the only model that tucked in.  I think the final track is east of it, but not enough for you and me to get all snow.

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It's def generous.  DT's map actually looks spot on for us..I'd prob go 8 to 12 with mixing for us.  

it's lower than wxbell.. at least in the bullseye. the amounts out there are actually not bad probably as is.. closer in, it's def missing some mixing. but whatever. 

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Jason and I were thinking maybe 1993 type amounts for us in the city and points east hough this early we're not gonna put out any explicit accumulations and that the western guys could really cash in.  I sort of favor the Euro since it fits climo a little better than the GFS and nam. 

Storm of the new Century? lol, The 12Z euro totals are incredible! Wundermap has dca around 8-9 inches just at hr 72 with a bit more after that.

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I think it is a little too far west.  It's the only model that tucked in.  I think the final track is east of it, but not enough for you and me to get all snow.

 

It's steady trackwise two runs.. see what it does on the next I guess.  Hard not to favor it but could still be a little west of where it should be. 

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it's lower than wxbell.. at least in the bullseye. the amounts out there are actually not bad probably as is.. closer in, it's def missing some mixing. but whatever. 

 

Yeah, I think we're all expecting that we'll have a period of mix at some point.  Steeled for that possibility, at any rate, with good snow on either side of that period.  It would be nice to be able to rule out any flip to outright rain, at least.

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It's steady trackwise two runs.. see what it does on the next I guess.  Hard not to favor it but could still be a little west of where it should be. 

 

If memory serves this is about the time frame where we can almost(big caveat) rule out huge shifts of over 100 miles but still see smaller adjustments here and there.

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Just some thoughts, RE: the ECMWF...

It hasn't been the greatest performer this cool season 60-144 hours out, at least in terms of verification comapred to it's ensemble mean or even the GFS and GEFS mean. I understand some "tinkering" was done recently to the model; I'm wondering if we're seeing some grid scale feedback issues because of that (?)

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I know that It is a completely different set up... but compare the Euro clown with the actual 93.. pretty similar in the the amount area it covered... I mean Georgia to Maine.. AWESOME.  We are lucky to even track this to inside 72 hours

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