Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could make those numbers out Kinda looks like DCA is in the 14" contour, but hard to tell with my eyes! I can make out the 20"+ out toward Front Royal pretty well, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could make those numbers out clicked on the link and it cleared up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could make those numbers out It is at least 12 inches all the way to the west shores of the bay minus St Mary's county where they only get 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 different storm but yes...maybe a useful guide for amounts...something like 6-8" for DCA (they'd do better if the euro is right), and 10-12" NW DC....that would be a major event Different storm but cold to start with an inland track, plus wet, This track actually is better than that one if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could make those numbers out Right click image Open image in a new tab Blow it up About 16" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What about wind... everyone is focus on the snowfall (me too) but will there be any wind with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could make those numbers out click the link.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 clicked on the link and it cleared up nicely. so did I and it didn't click the link.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Right click image Open image in a new tab Blow it up About 16" for DC. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 so did I and it didn't it's like 15"+.. enough I suppose. perhaps generous anyway. but as much as the euro owns it's still on the western edge of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What about wind... everyone is focus on the snowfall (me too) but will there be any wind with this storm? I would think wind will be a big factor. Heavy wet snow and wind = power outages galore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow. The Euro is adamant.... and beautiful. The 16 inch line goes right through DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 it's like 15"+.. enough I suppose. perhaps generous anyway. but as much as the euro owns it's still on the western edge of guidance. It's def generous. DT's map actually looks spot on for us..I'd prob go 8 to 12 with mixing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 it's like 15"+.. enough I suppose. perhaps generous anyway. but as much as the euro owns it's still on the western edge of guidance. I think it is a little too far west. It's the only model that tucked in. I think the final track is east of it, but not enough for you and me to get all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's def generous. DT's map actually looks spot on for us..I'd prob go 8 to 12 with mixing for us. it's lower than wxbell.. at least in the bullseye. the amounts out there are actually not bad probably as is.. closer in, it's def missing some mixing. but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's def generous. DT's map actually looks spot on for us..I'd prob go 8 to 12 with mixing for us. With that track I'd probably lean towards less than that. Still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jason and I were thinking maybe 1993 type amounts for us in the city and points east hough this early we're not gonna put out any explicit accumulations and that the western guys could really cash in. I sort of favor the Euro since it fits climo a little better than the GFS and nam. Storm of the new Century? lol, The 12Z euro totals are incredible! Wundermap has dca around 8-9 inches just at hr 72 with a bit more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ian ninja'd me. Dang.... what a hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think it is a little too far west. It's the only model that tucked in. I think the final track is east of it, but not enough for you and me to get all snow. It's steady trackwise two runs.. see what it does on the next I guess. Hard not to favor it but could still be a little west of where it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it's lower than wxbell.. at least in the bullseye. the amounts out there are actually not bad probably as is.. closer in, it's def missing some mixing. but whatever. Yeah, I think we're all expecting that we'll have a period of mix at some point. Steeled for that possibility, at any rate, with good snow on either side of that period. It would be nice to be able to rule out any flip to outright rain, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's steady trackwise two runs.. see what it does on the next I guess. Hard not to favor it but could still be a little west of where it should be. If memory serves this is about the time frame where we can almost(big caveat) rule out huge shifts of over 100 miles but still see smaller adjustments here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CIPS still more bullish than the GFS itsel and inline with the Euro idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 2m above ground on weather underground and 850s look good for DC at 72 and 81 on wunderground. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CIPS still more bullish than the GFS itsel and inline with the Euro idea. COOPmedgfs212F072.png Ian: Those are computer-generated, correct? Just struck me as interesting how it carved DC out of that 8" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just some thoughts, RE: the ECMWF... It hasn't been the greatest performer this cool season 60-144 hours out, at least in terms of verification comapred to it's ensemble mean or even the GFS and GEFS mean. I understand some "tinkering" was done recently to the model; I'm wondering if we're seeing some grid scale feedback issues because of that (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CIPS still more bullish than the GFS itsel and inline with the Euro idea. COOPmedgfs212F072.png an increasingly strong signal -- it's interesting when analogs based on a forecast deviates a bit from the model evolution -- CIPS are a neat tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is why DT has a million followers. He is like a teenager on FB https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645838215463440&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know that It is a completely different set up... but compare the Euro clown with the actual 93.. pretty similar in the the amount area it covered... I mean Georgia to Maine.. AWESOME. We are lucky to even track this to inside 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ian: Those are computer-generated, correct? Just struck me as interesting how it carved DC out of that 8" area. Yes. They've trended west the last day or so, first time that's shown up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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