TerpWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks, I didn't know about the 24 hour thing. that's usually. 24 hours is the maximum but Sterling can wait until they feel like it (sometimes as the event starts lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the 0z Euro when you account for mixing and low snow ratios. It's night and day compared to 10:1 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42789-february-12-13-storm-title-tbd/page-32#entry2757225 Thank you very much. You're a gentleman and a scholar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DTs first call is out...looks like DCA and BWI are in 12" zone, IAD/JYO in 16-20. 16-20 contour is same shape but slightly narrower than the region between 81 and 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the 0z Euro when you account for mixing and low snow ratios. It's night and day compared to 10:1 maps. EURO Snowfall.png Seems a bit underdone from all other outputs. There was a panel that had surface slightly (<1*C) above freezing, but it was during heavy precip and cold upstairs (-4 at 850). Is there significant warming elsewhere in the column? I know earlier runs had an onshore flow around the 900-950mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 on 6z Nam (because why not): at 36, precip is a bit heavier across the south. More digging with the vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DT's 16 inch snow line runs right thru my back yard lol. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 at 45, same exact sfc low placement as 0z, right off Wilmington NC. Low is 1010 vs 1009, but its throwing much more precip back west. Also a bit slower with snow to DC, its on its doorstep at 3z Thurs where it was already falling on 0z run. About to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM another good hit at 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM at 54. if I'm not mistaken is that an inch of qpf in 6 hours? Correct me if I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am assuming the ability of the system to pull in "max" moisture from the warm side over the Atlantic will benefit from SSTA being pretty warm. Should increase surface temps relative to climo and obviously increase dew-points vs Climo as well. This has super-storm written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great run by the NAM as it bombs as it rides up the coast gives us a 24 hour event. ~1.25" for DC/Balt, ~1" for JYO. A solid increase for all. This is about as "bad" as it gets for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The newest headline for the LWX AFD just sent a chill up my spine, though that was probably stronger wording than I would use. They do a great job of highlighting the mix potential near and east of 95, but are sure to mention that significant snow accumulations are likely regardless of what happens. NWS may not be overstating their case for a crippling winter storm hitting the LWX region. This snow will be wet. Twelve inches of wet snow will do a lot of damage, including bringing down a lot of branches and snapping trees off as well as creating a major travel headache in Washington and all over Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Delaware as well as in the Carolinas where 14 inches are expected in Charlotte and up to an inch and a quarter of ICE in central South Carolina. I'd say THAT qualifies as 'crippling' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm up. 2.5 hours of tortured sleep. GFS looks better at H5...might be better than 0z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 weird dual low thing..GFS is just so out of it with this. anyway, tilt looks better vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yeah looks better upstairs, but surface is wonky thru 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's a tad deeper, and the track is great, but essentially no increase in QPF. I hope the Euro/Ukie are correct with their deeper/westward track. It's also warmish at the sfc given the lack of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FWIW, the 06z RGEM has essentially joined the Euro. So the GFS suite is on it's own still. Trying not to weenie out here, but the GFS is pissing me off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol..the gfs is awful. It literally has zero support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think once the northern shortwave arrives on the PNW coast in a few hrs, we'll have better data available for the afternoon model suite. I have a hunch that we'll have things together by the 00z runs this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WPC likes a western solution, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think maybe we are at a point where we can stop worrying about the GFS when every other piece of guidance is locking in. Coastal referenced this on the radio show last night, and others have on here, but that historic snow mauling that Boston got last Feb. 8 was one the Euro was on early, and the GFS really never quite caught onto. For whatever reason, maybe this kind of set-up isn't one it can handle as well as the other pieces of guidance with respect to the surface features. Or, it's on to something. At this point, the former seems far more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gfs Two of the best Mets on this forum were on the radio \saying that the GFS didnt really look right... Wes has been on the Euro's side for the last 48 hours (or more). You know as well as I do that that it is big deal when Wes goes big.. I know... I want the GFS to just just show it.. but for now... just be happy that the best model in the world has been giving you like two feet of snow for like the past 50 model runs.. jeez ji... come on now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DCA: THU 00Z 13-FEB -2.9 -6.3 1026 62 71 0.00 555 534 THU 06Z 13-FEB -3.0 -2.9 1018 90 98 0.22 552 538 THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.2 -1.3 1007 91 99 0.57 548 542 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.1 -3.3 995 87 96 0.34 537 540 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.2 -3.6 996 89 97 0.62 532 535 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -0.9 -2.1 1001 69 23 0.08 535 534 If this verifies I may change my screen name to -3.6 996 0.62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For posterity (and because I think it's a really solid discussion from the LWX desk): SIGNIFICANT TO PERHAPS EVEN A CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THEAREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD AIR INTOTHE AREA. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTWEDNESDAY EVENING WILL INTENSIFY AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHOF THE JET PHASE TOGETHER DURING THIS TIME. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILLOVERRUN THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING SNOW TO BREAK OUTFROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUREAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR AREA DURINGTHIS TIME. THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITHOVERRUNNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE MODERATE TOHEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILLBE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR FORMIXED SNOW AND SLEET NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WITH EVEN RAINACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND.SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREADURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. SOMEGUIDANCE ALLOWS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TOINTENSIFY QUICKLY...WHICH CAUSES THE LOW TO BE MUCH STRONGER ANDCLOSER TO THE COAST. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN PRECIPITATIONWILL BE HEAVY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR ACROSSMUCH OF THE AREA. OTHER GUIDANCE PHASES THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERNBRANCH OF THE JET LATER...CAUSING THE LOW TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER ASIT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULDSTILL OCCUR WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SNOWFALLWILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS FIRST SCENARIO. ALSO...THE GRADIENT BETWEENSIGNIFICANT SNOW AND LITTLE SNOW WILL BE CLOSE TO WESTERN MARYLANDAND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FORTHE POTENTIAL OF FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. STAY TUNED TO THELATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just saw the 6z runs. GFS improved again upstairs but no improvements at the surface. But honestly it has 0 model support so I'm not sure it matters much. 3z SREFs bumped 1" even closer to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WPC likes a western solution, FWIW Hmmm, several cluster to the east of their track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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