HighStakes Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Miller As are so moisture loaded that their frontogen bands can produce epic rates. Can't wait to look closer tomorrow pm. There's no telling what can happen for some specified locations that get lucky. Look at what happened in the Feb. 2006 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I,m wide awake and lil bit tingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it's much better around here.. not that it can't go back or be crappy.. but it's not really the same thing as 12z other than the euro has been rather steady. it's better to be sure....12z was quite a good run...I think people just feared it would jog west again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I,m wide awake and lil bit tingly. just stop there and go no further with any explanations why lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't wanna be within 5 feet of a grocery store on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it's better to be sure....12z was quite a good run...I think people just feared it would jog west again.. true.. i think this was about our perfect scenario here though. and the shift east/colder was a big part of what makes it. no one wants to see the apps bullseye around here. plus if it's spitting out 2" on the regular maybe someone will test 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's no telling what can happen for some specified locations that get lucky. Look at what happened in the Feb. 2006 storm. Its all about the bands. If your under one your buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Temps thursday afternoon are 33-34 for most everybody verbatim. Not really a big deal. We all expected it. It's going to stick hard to trees and everything else. if the winds howl there cold be problems. I think pepco cut down all the trees in MD so I might be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 true.. i think this was about our perfect scenario here though. and the shift east/colder was a big part of what makes it. no one wants to see the central bullseye around here. not entirely true ....but I'm not complaining about any of the runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I,m wide awake and lil bit tingly. I'm in truce mode ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Temps thursday afternoon are 33-34 for most everybody verbatim. Not really a big deal. We all expected it. It's going to stick hard to trees and everything else. if the winds howl there cold be problems. I think pepco cut down all the trees in MD so I might be ok. yeah, power outages is what I thought about too I hate that and it happens here a lot due to the old trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 true.. i think this was about our perfect scenario here though. and the shift east/colder was a big part of what makes it. no one wants to see the central bullseye around here. plus if it's spitting out 2" on the regular maybe someone will test 3". I'd like to see a 25-50 mi jog east....this track if things dont go right, you mix too much....there is little margin for error.....but the upside is astronomical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yeah, power outages is what I thought about too I hate that and it happens here a lot due to the old trees Between the derecho and last weeks ice storm a good percentage of the dead trees have already fallen, hopefully that will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Glad to see you're finally going to get one... Rooting for you guys. You deserve it more than anybody! -Ray from South Jersey.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kiad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love everybody and am sorry when I don't act like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd like to see a 25-50 mi jog east....this track if things dont go right, you mix too much....there is little margin for error.....but the upside is astronomical I'm a lot less worried about a big qpf sleet dumpster waste than I was 24 hours ago. I honestly think this euro run marks the far western edge of the envelope. There is way too much compelling evidence that any shift will be east and not west. And the Kocin map speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Temps thursday afternoon are 33-34 for most everybody verbatim. Not really a big deal. We all expected it. It's going to stick hard to trees and everything else. if the winds howl there cold be problems. I think pepco cut down all the trees in MD so I might be ok. I think if it plays out as modeled tonight some areas could go slightly above freezing some time in the late morning but then crash when they get into the comma head. That band portrayed between 18z and 00z looks fierce and I can't see temps above freezing for those in that band. When the storm winds down temps may rise again a bit. Tonight's run actually showed my area the warmest at 00z friday when the storm is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unfortunately most of heavy falls in day . We needed a 4pm start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm a lot less worried about a big qpf sleet dumpster waste than I was 24 hours ago. I honestly think this euro run marks the far western edge of the envelope. There is way too much compelling evidence that any shift will be east and not west. And the Kocin map speaks for itself. If you dont mind me asking, where is the Kocin map? I cant find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unfortunately most of heavy falls in day . We needed a 4pm start time I think the 1st 8 hours will be hot and heavy....1"/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think the 1st 8 hours will be hot and heavy....1"/hr Thats what happened to Woodbridge in March 1993, we got 1 inch an hour rates for the 1st 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think the 1st 8 hours will be hot and heavy....1"/hr 1am to 7am look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How early do you guys think LWX will issue warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 gonna be very very difficult to keep up with all the posts on this board during this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How early do you guys think LWX will issue warnings? I am no expert, just a hobbyist, but I think they might pull the trigger tomorrow afternoon or evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am no expert, just a hobbyist, but I think they might pull the trigger tomorrow afternoon or evening considering warnings and advisories are issued in the 24 hour window. That would put it tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 considering warnings and advisories are issued in the 24 hour window. That would put it tomorrow afternoon Thanks, I didn't know about the 24 hour thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With all the heavy wet snow there will be a LOT of damage to pine trees in particular, pines will just bend then snap. In the January 2011 psuhoffman storm, we got 5.5 inches of heavy wet snow. It did grievous damage to pines. What this behemoth snowstorm will do to trees here with a foot or more of wet snow - I can't imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you dont mind me asking, where is the Kocin map? I cant find it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42789-february-12-13-storm-title-tbd/page-32#entry2757225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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