Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DCA: THU 00Z 13-FEB -2.9 -6.3 1026 62 71 0.00 555 534 THU 06Z 13-FEB -3.0 -2.9 1018 90 98 0.22 552 538 THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.2 -1.3 1007 91 99 0.57 548 542 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.1 -3.3 995 87 96 0.34 537 540 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.2 -3.6 996 89 97 0.62 532 535 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -0.9 -2.1 1001 69 23 0.08 535 534 that is closer to my maps...1.8" or so....not sure where wxbell gets 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wonder if Matt thinks we'll mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ku nesis 4.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wonder if Matt thinks we'll mix? Yes... Heavy snow with heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wundermap has 15+ just at hr 75. I've lost how to describe this awesomeness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I had a good feeling hugging the ggem all day. Perfect middle between euro/gfs. GFS going all in by 12z tomorrow. I have no doubt. I still think 6-12" is a good call at this lead. It can be bumped. Getting 12+ across the area with no block is unlikely. It all has to come together perfectly. It might but saying it will right now is asking for some hurt feelings or a kick in the nards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does Sunday look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wonder if Matt thinks we'll mix? I doubt it...a track 10 miles to our east is often all champagne powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you only knew how conflicted I am about this you would call Sheppard Pratt. I want to cry . Oh believe me. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I had a good feeling hugging the ggem all day. Perfect middle between euro/gfs. GFS going all in by 12z tomorrow. I have no doubt. I still think 6-12" is a good call at this lead. It can be bumped. Getting 12+ across the area with no block is unlikely. It all has to come together perfectly. It might but saying it will right now is asking for some hurt feelings or a kick in the nards. It's fun seeing it modeled and not 8 days out post truncation. Storm starts tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm more worried about a later phase/suppressed track (GFS) than over-amplification. I'll always take my chances with a coastal bomb in mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I doubt it...a track 10 miles to our east is often all champagne powder oh ok, cool. I hadn't seen you say you'd think we'd mix so I was curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does Sunday look? like wednesday but with about 2" QPF less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 like wednesday but with about 2" QPF less NESIS -1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 oh ok, cool. I hadn't seen you say you'd think we'd mix so I was curious. I just thought it was funny that the euro took almost the exact same track as 12z and yet it was deemed to be such a different solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just thought it was funny that the euro took almost the exact same track as 12z and yet it was deemed to be such a different solution.... It closed off a bit later. Not as much damage upstairs. track may be similar but evolution was a favorable step. i think it ticks again too. Right over OBX and bee line off of OC. No tuck into the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 like wednesday but with about 2" QPF less With ratios how much snow do you think we will get with -.20 QPF?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm a little pissed about the snow hole on the 102 hour panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just thought it was funny that the euro took almost the exact same track as 12z and yet it was deemed to be such a different solution.... well, i think we were going on the initial assessments at first (looks east, tiny tick east, etc)...we got the result we wanted though because it's colder. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I fell asleep and woke to this....I'll never fall back now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It closed off a bit later. Not as much damage upstairs. track may be similar but evolution was a favorable step. i think it ticks again too. Right over OBX and bee line off of OC. No tuck into the bay. it was a definite improvement, but it was not some marked shift in track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still hoping the parallels to what the SNE experienced with the Euro locking onto their Feb. 8 storm last year and not letting go with the GFS only catching on very late are what's happening for us with this system. The Euro being such a rock for so many days...have to believe that signal is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just thought it was funny that the euro took almost the exact same track as 12z and yet it was deemed to be such a different solution.... it's much better around here.. not that it can't go back or be crappy.. but it's not really the same thing as 12z other than the euro has been rather steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I fell asleep and woke to this....I'll never fall back now I'm wide awake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I fell asleep and woke to this....I'll never fall back now Careful make sure to get your cane so you don't hurt yourself getting back to bed in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Miller As are so moisture loaded that their frontogen bands can produce epic rates. Can't wait to look closer tomorrow pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like SnowTV Saturday and .5 - 1" on Sunday. Vort pass on Sunday is ok too. Could be a nice pack freshener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it's time to stock up on bread, bourbon, and cigars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 not sure the story on wxbell diff.. maue i think has said he's running higher res than others but that doesn't explain the text output. might be part of the special JB algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm wide awake U probably don't care that cwg winter forecast might be all time worst lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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